American Oaks fair odds: This is your opening-day single

With opportunities to bet against the morning-line favorites in the Grade 1 Malibu and La Brea, I don't mind being bullish on the obvious favorite to close out the all-graded-stakes multi-race wagers.

She Feels Pretty is not only the most likely winner of the American Oaks (G1) but also the most likely winner of opening day at Santa Anita.

I am dubious that she will be over even money, but with a dozen others entered in this turf race for 3-year-old fillies, I am hopeful for my fair odds of 4-5. 

When assessing her chances and those of the field against her, the question comes down to whether she replicates her Queen Elizabeth II (G1) performance from October at Keeneland. If she repeats it, then she wins this race at least half the time. If she improves off it, then we're getting into mortal lock territory. Of course, she could even regress and still win this race most of the time. 

In other words, that was a serious Grade 1 performance, and I expect She Feels Pretty to be a real contender against the older ranks in 2025.

When a horse is likely to take so much money in a big field, it is hard to know where other prices will go. But I'd love to see Strutting get ignored. That was a tough assignment off the bench in her North American debut going a mile at Del Mar, but she closed tough to nearly pull the upset. She has running lines closer to the pace in Europe, and I'd expect similar this time with a race under her belt.

But make no mistake. I'm only using She Feels Pretty in multi-race wagers.