American Oaks 2017: Odds and analysis for Saturday’s race

By Jonathan Lintner

The field of 10 contenders in Saturday’s Grade 1, $300,000 American Oaks won’t be particularly complicated to handicap. It’s about those who contended for Keeneland’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup taking on the ones who didn’t.

For 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/4 miles on turf, the race headlines this weekend’s stakes action, and it’s the QE II runners who bring in all the class in the year's final Grade 1 race. Approximate post time is 6:30 p.m. ET.

Here’s a look at the field with morning line odds.

1. Madam Dancealot [6-1 — Richard Baltas — Corey Nakatani — 122 pounds] She ran third at 20-1 in the QE II, picking up the pieces well behind La Coronel and Daddys Lil Darling. It’s unlikely the price will be that high in California, where in July she won the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap at Del Mar. Still, she wasn't challenging Daddys Lil Darling for the place. A pace meltdown doesn’t seem imminent in this spot. Will be tough to duplicate her last-out effort.

2. Kathy’s Song [20-1 — Richard Baltas — Brice Blanc — 120 pounds] In her other race at the Grade 1 level, Kathy’s Song didn’t factor Aug. 19 in the Del Mar Oaks. Last out, though, she appeared much improved going 1 1/16 miles in the Miss America Stakes at Golden Gate and defeated another rival here, Coachwhip, with a come-from-behind effort. She could definitely use more distance. But probably isn’t fast enough.

3. Bernina Star [30-1 — Jim Cassidy — Kent Desormeaux — 120 pounds] Seven races into this $300,000 purchase’s career, she finally broke her maiden. Bernina Star has won one race since then in an allowance on the dirt but exits an even effort in the Grade 2 Bayakoa, also on the main track, finishing fourth. While the switch in surfaces is intriguing, it’s not so enough to bet on it. Unlikely to hit the board.

4. Daddys Lil Darling [3-1 — Kenny McPeek — Mike Smith — 120 pounds] A 2017 campaign that has seen her race in Florida, Kentucky and New York — plus travel to England, where she was a late scratch — will conclude on the West Coast. When Daddys Lil Darling misses the board, it’s typically at distances much shorter than this. She was a deserving second in the QE II and last out in Churchill Downs’ Grade 2 Mrs. Revere, she closed from way back, coming up 3/4 of a length short at 1 1/16 miles. The filly shipped out in time to get a work in on the dirt at Santa Anita. A deserving favorite.

5. Pantsonfire [30-1 — Richard Baltas — Rajiv Maragh — 120 pounds] The other Baltas entry in this spot will also be a longshot. She broke her maiden going a mile and then, facing winners, next out was beaten by a nose in her most-recent start. While in her career-best form, Pantsonfire just hasn’t shown the type of class needed to contend here, but could be worth playing at the bottom of vertical wagers. Not the best of the closers.

6. Beau Recall [6-1 — Simon Callaghan — Joe Talamo — 120 pounds] Also off since Keeneland’s QE II, she had a tough trip that day, starting slow and clipping heels on her way to a fifth-place finish. She appears eligible to improve and earlier in 2017 finished four straight races at Santa Anita in the exacta. Beau Recall will be among a bevy of closing types but could factor at longer odds — if she manages a better early position. A live longshot.

7. Desert Duchess [8-1 — Mike Maker — Drayden Van Dyke — 120 pounds] The former claimer hasn’t been back in for a tag since picked up by Maker in May. She has graduated in her last three starts from starter allowance to allowance to stakes, winning each race. Last out, she pressed the pace before going on to win the Nov. 4 Cellars Shiraz Stakes at Gulfstream Park West. Unknown how she fits here but should take money.

8. Rymska [5-2 — Brown — Irad Ortiz Jr. — 122 pounds] Lightly raced, the Irish-bred filly has only won in three starts since a fifth-place finish in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Given the company wasn’t quite as stiff, she notched a 92 Beyer Speed Figure despite breaking widest of all in a short run to the first turn of Aqueduct’s Nov. 23 Winter Memories Stakes. Rymska could be sitting on a big race. A serious threat.

9. New Money Honey [7-2 — Brown — Javier Castellano — 124 pounds] Last seen having to work with an outside post position in the QE II, she heads West for Brown, who had no trouble winning turf stakes last month at Del Mar. New Money Honey has won races both while pressing the pace and setting it. She also has a victory at this distance, though it’s been since July. There wasn’t much excuse for the QE II effort, as she simply tired late after spending much of the trip in the two path. Not in her best form.

10. Coachwhip [20-1 — Richard Mandella — Flavien Prat — 120 pounds] This homebred daughter of So You Think one only got to the races in October and has won two of her three starts. She’s being brought back quickly from her only defeat, by 3 1/4 lengths to Kathy’s Song in the Miss America Stakes, and logged a work between. But she’s another closing type in a field full of them. Doesn't appear to be a contender.

Summary: Often on the board but rarely a winner, the well-traveled Daddys Lil Darling has found an ideal spot to change that here. The likely second choice, New Money Honey, hasn't duplicated earlier career success lately, with the top challengers appearing to be a former claimer in Desert Duchess and Rymska, who's also coming off a stakes win. Beau Recall deserves consideration in your wagers.