All-stakes pick 4 caps Road to Derby kickoff at Fair Grounds

The Road to the Derby at Fair Grounds is about more than just the Louisiana or Kentucky derbies.

The marquee day on the Fair Grounds calendar - the Louisiana Derby on March 23 - features a quartet of graded stakes, and each of those has their first race on that road this Saturday.

The Untapable for 2-year-old fillies and Louisiana and Kentucky Oaks hopefuls kicks off an all-stakes Pick 4 that continues with the Buddy Diliberto Memorial - an early prep for the Mervin Muniz presented by Horse Racing Nation - the Tenacious as a prep for the New Orleans Classic and concluding with the Gun Runner for 2-year-old Louisiana and Kentucky Derby hopefuls.

Fair odds for both the Untapable and the Gun Runner are already available, but how can we resist not bridging the juvenile races and coming up with a Pick 4?

My fair odds for the Buddy Diliberto are above, and although no. 12 Two Emmys is teetering on value with my fair odds matching his morning line, I expect some scratches that will remove him as a value play. I also think a lot of people will spread here because of the likelihood of being selective in the 2-year-old races.

The Tenacious is a little tougher. Given I do think the aforementioned races are more formful, I need to be more creative here. No. 3 Mbagnick is definitely overlaid at his 12-1 morning line. No. 6 Five Star General is less exciting at 5-1, but as the co-fourth choice he is usable. No. 1 Dash Attack is the co second choice, but I think he will go off higher than that, so he is in my "A" column as well.

Again, for full analysis of the two-year-old races, click the race names above, but for Pick 4 purposes, I'm looking to single no. 5 Legadema in the Untapable to start things off, and the Gun Runner is Nash's race to lose, but no. 7 Snead is worth being in the mix as fifth choice. No. 3 Risk It is a complete underlay to me.

Pick 4 base: 5 with 12 with 1, 3, 6 with 6, 7.