Alabama fair odds: Casse is poised to upset Good Cheer

The top three fillies by earnings among 3-year-olds this year face each other in the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga.

Two of the three are familiar foes, as Good Cheer beat La Cara in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs before La Cara defeated Good Cheer in the Acorn (G1) in June at Saratoga. A rubber match between these top two would be enough, but Mark Casse wants to double his fun, so the Hall of Fame trainer also has Nitrogen in here. 

And I'm glad he does because I am more excited to bet her to win this race than I have been to bet any horse to do anything in a race in quite some time. 

Nitrogen has made eight of her nine career starts on turf, including a nose loss to Fionn in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) last out. Before that, though, the Medaglia d'Oro filly had won five in a row, including the off-the-turf Wonder Again (G3) by 17 lengths. That is, she won her dirt debut, albeit on a sloppy, sealed track against only two other foes, by 17 lengths while earning a career-best figure in the process.

Given that she could be the third choice against this group, I am going to gamble that the performance, and the numbers that came with, it is indicative of her turf prowess. And considering her pedigree, by  Medaglia d'Oro out of an Uncle Mo mare, there is no reason to think that is not the case at a decent price.

The larger field really is not that much larger, with six entrants in the Alabama versus three in the Wonder Again, and the 1 1/4-mile distance does not concern me either. BIG BET.

My bullishness is not meant to take anything away from Good Cheer or La Cara, as both are worthy Grade 1 winners. But Nitrogen will not be bet as the most likely winner, and I think she is.