Alabama analysis: La Cara, Good Cheer rematch at Saratoga

Saturday’s Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama at Saratoga drew a field of six 3-year-old fillies. Undefeated in seven starts until her last race, Good Cheer headlines the race where all but one of the runners will try the 1 1/4-mile distance for the first time.

Five of the fillies are graded-stakes winners, including two with Grade 1 victories along with a pair who are Grade 2-accomplished and one in a Grade 3. Three of the fillies have career earnings over $1 million. Together the field has 26 victories from 57 starts producing wins in 46% of their races.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Alabama with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. It is scheduled as race 10 of 12 with post time at 5:44 p.m. EDT.

1. Margie’s Intention, 8-1. Honor A. P. – Brad Cox / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 7: 3-3-0 - $349,880. Margie’s Intention is the first of two runners in the Alabama for Brad Cox, and it is fair to call her "the other" Cox horse. She has been a consistent type with only firsts and seconds in six of seven starts. She was second in June in the Delaware Oaks (G3) after a late, eight-wide rally and that came after she became a stakes winner in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico as the 5-2 favorite. Before those races, the Louisiana-bred raced only against state-breds. Live long shot.

2. Good Cheer, 8-5. Medaglia d’Oro – Brad Cox / Luis Saez – 8: 7-0-0 - $1,753,230. Good Cheer has to be considered the first-string Cox runner when compared to her stablemate. She had her seven-race, undefeated record spoiled at Saratoga when she finished a non-threatening fifth in the Acorn (G1). She dominated the fields in her seven wins, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1) against a stacked field of 13. Good Cheer had a short rest after her loss, waiting a month before recording a timed workout at the Spa and her breezes have been sharp. Can she regain her brilliant form? It probably does not help that regular rider Luis Saez is mired in a mini-slump with just one win from his last 46 starts. The one to beat.

3. Kinzie Queen, 15-1. McKinzie – Greg Compton / Junior Alvarado – 13: 2-4-3 - $293,030. Kinzie Queen is the only filly in the field who is not a stakes winner. She was third behind Margie’s Intention in her two most recent starts and has an allowance victory at Oaklawn in April against a field of seven. Last year she broke her maiden for a $50,000 tag and was claimed away from Steve Asmussen. Like others better.

4. Nitrogen, 2-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz – 9: 5-2-2 - $1,246,604. Nitrogen had a five-race winning streak broken by a nose when she had the lead late in the stretch in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and got nailed at the wire. Her only race on the dirt was that 17-length victory in the turf-meant Wonder Again (G3) against a field of three. If the morning-line odds of 2-1 hold up that would be the longest odds she has had since she finished third in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf seven races ago. Trainer Mark Casse has two fillies in the Alabama field. Win contender.

5. Queen Azteca, 15-1. Sharp Azteca – Neils Petersen / Joel Rosario – 9: 4-2-0 - $302,332. Queen Azteca will make her North American debut after racing in Scandinavia and Dubai. As a 2-year-old she won a maiden in Sweden in her third try. She spent the winter at Meydan Racecourse where she won a lucrative allowance and the UAE Oaks (G3). In February she was fifth against Kentucky Derby contenders in the UAE Derby (G2). Most recently, she ran in maiden races against the boys. So, it seems that in Sweden a filly can break her maiden twice. Toss.

6. La Cara, 5-2. Street Sense – Mark Casse / Dylan Davis – 11: 5-2-0 - $1,156,083. La Cara was a 7-1 surprise winner of the Acorn with a front-end effort. She set the pace in the Kentucky Oaks and backed up to finish ninth. Among her five victories are three in graded stakes. She won the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland and the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill on the Oaks trail, where she also won the Suncoast at Tampa Downs for Casse. Regular rider Dylan Davis stays on board. Top pick.

Summary: The biggest challenge in handicapping the 2025 Alabama is the 1 1/4-mile distance, which five of the fillies will have to run for the first time. Queen Azteca ran farther than that in her two starts this year in Sweden. Margie’s Intention, Good Cheer and La Cara have at least one win going 1 1/8 miles.

The pace projector shows La Cara has an advantage as the only filly who prefers to run on the lead and that she is likely to get loose on the lead. With a pair of Grade 1 victories to her credit, including the Acorn at Saratoga in June, she and her stablemate Nitrogen are the only horses with a victory at the Spa. As the third choice in the HRN morning line, La Cara has further appeal. La Cara is the top pick.