Alabama fair odds: Wet Paint is a bad bet to go streaking

In looking at my fair odds for the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga, it is clear that 2-1 morning-line favorite Wet Paint, my third-most likely winner at 6-1, is a horse worth opposing.

After that is really anyone's guess, which is why I am most interested in betting this race vertically vs. identifying a specific key horse.

Yes, both Julia Shining and Randomized, my two most likely winners, could offer value in the win pool. But I am so against Wet Paint at her expected price that I have designs on clobbering the gimmicks like the trifecta with her out of the number completely. I discuss such a strategy with Chase Sessoms in the preview video below.

Randomized could take care of this on the front end, and I like Julia Shining to get the mid-pack trip that could help her get the jump on Wet Paint. Tossing Wet Paint from the gimmicks is a complete gamble, even more so than all the other gambling we're already doing. If things fall apart on the front end for a quality filly like Randomized, then Wet Paint figures to be a beneficiary at least for show. I just think she'll be way over-bet in all wagers.

Both Indiana Oaks (G3) horses, winner Defining Purpose and runner-up Taxed, could be a presence here in the same way Randomized and Julia Shining are with Defining Purpose being more forward than Taxed. Both Sacred Wish and Gambling Girl would not be surprises, either, and even Chocolate Gelato has a big number to run back to.

Boxing those seven in a trifecta is not practical, so once odds are known, I'll figure out how much I want to lean on my two most likely winners. If they take too much money, then I have another tier to key.