Alabama fair odds: Pace is key to Miss Justify’s value
With the clear leader of the 3-year-old filly division, Thorpedo Anna, opting to face males a week later in the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, the Alabama (G1) on Saturday at Saratoga lacks its typical championship feel. But it is no less an intriguing handicapping puzzle.
The lone 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 stakes race for females on dirt attracted eight fillies, seven of which are looking for their first Grade 1 victory.
| Post | Horse | Ed's fair odds | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Intricate | 15-1 | Tyler Gaffalione | Brendan Walsh |
| 2 | Chatalas | 12-1 | Frankie Dettori | Mark Glatt |
| 3 | Power Squeeze | 10-1 | Javier Castellano | Jorge Delgado |
| 4 | Just Basking | 8-1 | Chris Landeros | Ian Wilkes |
| 5 | America's Vow | 50-1 | Junior Alvarado | Tim Hamm |
| 6 | Miss Justify | 3-1 | Flavien Prat | Todd Pletcher |
| 7 | Candied | 2-1 | Manuel Franco | Todd Pletcher |
| 8 | Neon Icon | 17-1 | Luis Saez | Rusty Arnold |
For those who believe in the "Grade 1 winners win Grade 1 races" rule, Candied is an understandable favorite given that her Alcibiades Stakes victory last year at Keeneland is the lone Grade 1 win among the octet.
It is tough to see her offering much value, though. That win last year was good, and she has maintained that form against solid competition, most recently second in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) to Thorpedo Anna, who would be 1-5 in here. But only maintaining form is what concerns me.
Candied really has not improved. Although what we've seen to date might be good enough, I'd rather gamble on on the pace dynamics of this race improving the chances of Miss Justify, who looks like potential lone speed here. And speed does very well going 10 panels at Saratoga.
Obviously this is a big step up for the Justify filly, as she has faced neither Grade 1 competition nor two turns. But her pace advantage mitigates that for me, and she does have a win on this track.
Depending on how much the Todd Pletcher-trained duo of Candied and Miss Justify gets bet, Just Basking could offer value. I'll be keen to see how she's bet with Pletcher in the exactas, but I'm most interested in betting Miss Justify to win at her fair odds.