Across the Board: Seven stand out in Breeders' Cup Classic
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The $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic – to be run at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Nov. 3 – will include 10-12 horses with legit credentials to compete.
Many of them are included among the 19 horses I’ve listed below, which also will provide the current approximate odds offered by wagering operations. You will note that Accelerate is listed as the early 5-2 favorite, and that Diversify is out.
I have added some personal impressions on the top seven horses presently listed at 12-1 or lower.
Accelerate (5-2): This John Sadler trainee is the pre-race Classic favorite because he has won five of his six starts this year, including three Grade 1s. He also has earned high Beyer Speed Figures in some of those starts, including a 115 Beyer at Del Mar in August. Beyond the numbers, Accelerate has acted as if he could do better than he showed in the Awesome Again Stakes (G1) on Sept. 29 at Santa Anita.
West Coast (8-1): An interesting Bob Baffert trainee. While he finished second to Accelerate in the Awesome Again, he was not showing his best yet off the layoff. Actually, his best probably occurred in January when he scored a 117 Beyer Figure running second to Gun Runner in the Pegasus World Cup. Deserves to be watched carefully in his final Santa Anita workout(s).
Catholic Boy (10-1): This 3-year-old with room to improve is listed at double digit early odds despite having won the Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August. The Travers, which earned Catholic Boy a 104 Beyer Speed Figure, is run at the same 1 1/4-mile distance as this season-ending Classic.
McKinzie (10-1): This Baffert trainee scored nicely with a 107 Beyer Figure in the Pennsylvania Derby last month in his first start after a layoff. He's another talented sophomore with legit room to improve when he goes for the big money.
Thunder Snow (10): Won the rich Dubai World Cup with a moderate speed figure earlier this year. In addition, Thunder Snow has been keeping a relatively low profile through the summer and fall, and it’s quite difficult to assess his true condition right now. Not sure where he will fit in this race.
Mendelssohn (12-1): Earned a 101 Beyer while showing high early speed in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) Also has flashed other positive hints while competing in high-class races for 3-year-olds. Might deserve an upset chance, pending a few positive signs in his final workouts.
Yoshida (12-1): Was primarily a turf horse (who earned a 105 Beyer back in May). Yet, he showed a new dimension winning the Woodward (G1) on Saratoga's main dirt track. Given that Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is in charge here – and Mott has enjoyed previous Breeders’ Cup success – it is impossible to ignore Yoshida’s upset potential.
Here are other possible Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders:
Axelrod: 20-1
Bravazo: 30-1
Collected: 30-1
Discreet Lover: 20-1
Gunnevera: 30-1
Mind Your Biscuits: 15-1
Pavel: 20-1
Roaring Lion: 20-1
Seeking the Soul: 15-1
Toast of New York: 30-1
Added Notes: As it stands now, the main contenders for the Breeders' Cup Turf that will be run on Churchill’s one-mile infield course are sure to include several talented Europeans. Most notably, I would expect to see the John Gosden-trained pair of Enable and Roaring Lion, who is also possible for the Classic, as well as one or more horses who ran so well on Saturday in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine.
That Canadian race was won by Desert Encounter, who earned a 104 Beyer. Thundering Blue was a close second, while Focus Group came from far back to finish a solid third. The top two are Europeans, with Focus Group a Chad Brown runner.
At the bottom line, all three are proven turf horses that should fit in nicely going the same distance in the Breeders' Cup.
Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation.
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