Across the Board: Haikal offers value as Gotham alternative
Despite what's happening outside your window heading into this weekend, there are sure signs of spring: a change to daylight saving time and a ticking clock on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail.
Specifically, on Saturday we'll see the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), Gotham Stakes (G3) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) each run for qualifying points. Even though the Gotham is the shortest of these Derby prep races going a one-turn mile, I believe it is the most important moving forward.
That’s because the Gotham tends to attract the most diverse field given its setup. When results are in Saturday night, I expect that we will have seen several good 3-year-olds demonstrate their legitimacy as true contenders for Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial (G2) next month as well as for the Kentucky Derby.
As such, here is my analysis of an especially intriguing renewal of the Gotham with preferred selections:
#1 Family Biz has only a win in a seven-furlong maiden race last fall and a moderate third-place finish in the Jan. 1 Jerome Stakes. Yet, he has worked very well for this and we should therefore find out in this spot what he really is made of.
#2 Knicks Go did win the Grade 1Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall and followed that up with a solid second the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. This year, he was seriously over-bet while showing some speed in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs before tiring badly in the stretch. More speed expected from him here, and he has to show that he can sustain that speed going forward.
#3 Mind Control has three wins and a second from his five lifetime starts, including a sharp victory on the lead in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga last summer. All of his 2019 workouts are positive, and he obviously will contribute more early speed to this contest. While he already has shown that he can sustain that speed at this one-mile distance, this is a tougher spot in which to do it.
#4 Much Better has started 2019 for trainer Bob Baffert with a stakes placing and allowance win at Santa Anita. He is still another colt with considerable early zip and sharp recent workouts to consider for the pace in this contentious race. Expect jockey Mike Smith to restrain him early so he can launch a mid-pack rally.
#5 Haikal was second by a neck in his career debut over this track last November and was a narrow winner in both of his two races since. In his most recent in the local Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, Haikal won narrowly going seven furlongs with a game rally from fifth. He comes from a nice barn run by Kiaran McLaughlin and offers more late kick than most in here. Must consider given the pace scenario.
#6 Instagrand, a Jerry Hollendorfer trainee, has won both of his starts by daylight, including a score in the Grade 2 Best Pal stakes at Del Mar last summer. Terrific workouts and positive breeding suggests two things: A, he will be formidable in this spot and B, Longer distances could be in his favor. Must use in any exacta, trifecta or combination bet.
#7 Not That Brady was claimed for $50,000 out of his Saratoga debut last summer and since shows two wins and two seconds in his four races over this track in 2018 and 2019. All recent workouts are decent, with no standouts, though he is said to be overcoming a quarter crack. Still, he contributes more early speed to a race loaded with that type.
#8 Tikhvin Flew went well for trainer Steve Asmussen when he won his career debut here two months ago and followed that with a respectable third in the Jimmy Winkfield. Stretching out a furlong here with nice breeding suggest he can take another step forward, perhaps at a juicy price.
In summary, Instagrand will be the heavy betting favorite, but this field is loaded with competitive speed types, so there is ample room for one of the above horses to launch a mild rally from slightly off the pace. With that, I am going with stretch running Haikal as an exacta key in the first and second slots. I’ll be using him with Instagrand, Tikhvin Flew and Much Better.