Across the Board: Measuring up Saturday's Derby prep winners

There were three weekend stakes designed to provide possible contenders for final preps, as well as the 2019 Kentucky Derby itself. So, did they?

Fact is, while I really liked Haikal's chances to win Aqueduct's Gotham Stakes (G3) – see Friday's column – neither he nor other runners on Saturday acted as if they'll be formidable Derby contenders. That's especially true if the top choices run to their reputations in the upcoming Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

That's not to say we can completely discount last Saturday's results, as Haikal, Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Tacitus and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Somelikeithotbrown ran strong enough races to to serve them well in the next round of preps.

Somelikeithotbrown went relatively slowly in the 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby, earning an 83 Beyer Speed Figure from the Daily Racing Form for his 1:52.05 clocking that probably will prove to be one of the slowest at the distance in a stakes this season.

Tacitus earned a decent 93 Beyer while winning the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:41.90 for the 1 1/16-mile distance, which does not disqualify the son of Tapit from future Kentucky Derby prep race consideration. Trained by Bill Mott, this colt’s clocking was just a few ticks slower than the track record. Yet, few horses have come out of the Tampa Bay Derby to make a solid mark in the next round of Derby prep races or, even the Kentucky Derby itself, when that will be run in seven weeks.

Likewise, the Gotham winner Haikal won that one-mile, one-turn race with a respectable 95 Beyer while completing the distance in 1:35.63. Beyond the actual clocking and the OK figure, Haikal did show a valuable dimension that could prove useful in a longer next prep, the Wood Memorial (G2), or the Kentucky Derby. He capitalized on the setup, rallying from deep in the pack to get up at the wire to in the Gotham.

Even around one turn, Haikal finished boldly to get up in time and if the Wood Memorial or Kentucky Derby has several high quality speed types in their respective fields, reality says that no one should be surprised if Haikal does not unleash a strong late rally to threaten the prevailing leaders into the stretch.

So far, we have not seen more than a few 3-year-olds who have exhibited anything close to Haikal’s late kick and that should be taken into consideration moving forward.

Frankly, though, the prevailing potential contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby have been a moderate bunch in which the top rated horses – such as Game Winner, Improbable, Hidden Scroll, War of Will and Code of Honor – have likely yet to show just how good they really are.

Overall, I'm presently inclined to favor Improbable over them all. My second-favorite 3-year-old that I’ve seen to date is Hidden Scroll, who had legit excuses for his loss in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and must be watched carefully in his next start, especially given workmate Tacitus' score over the weekend.

We will only find out the answers to our many questions when some compete against each other in final preps. But as always, there will be significant pieces to the puzzle missing as we head into the first Saturday in May, again making the Derby an intriguing race to play.

Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation. Click here to read past editions.