Across the Board: Davidowitz's stakes picks galore for Saturday

In many regions of America, we are experiencing rain or snow or sleet amid the dead of winter. Things are so bad that Aqueduct Racetrack in New York decided as early as Thursday to cancel its Monday racing card.

Consider how strange this is, to forego an afternoon of racing with no proof the area will be hit with a storm over the weekend.

“Actually,” a NYRA official told me, “the weather reports in this area have been so accurate in recent weeks that we strongly believe we’re not going to be able to race on Monday.”

That said, Aqueduct is going to reschedule some of the canceled Monday races for subsequent cards.

In the meantime, I took a good look at the stakes races scheduled for Saturday at several popular tracks that hope to avoid the winter weather. As such, here are my capsule reviews (and previews) for several Saturday stakes for readers to consider. 

In New York

At Aqueduct, we will have the $100,000 Toboggan Stakes at seven furlongs for 4-year-olds and up. This is a contentious race on paper with no throwouts. 

I slightly prefer the Todd Pletcher trainee, Bal Harbour. He has run well at slightly longer distances around one and two turns and seems to be recovering his best form after returning last month with a promising performance on a tricky wet racing surface.

In Louisiana

At Fair Grounds, the $75,000 Marie Krantz Memorial runs at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. I have no strong opinion on this one but do respect the overall record of Lion In Wait, who has won five of his nine turf races while finishing second in the other four. 

There actually will be six races worth at least $75,000 on Saturday in New Orleans. The best of them figure to be the two races for 3-year-olds at a mile and 70 yards. 

First is the $150,000 Silverbulletday for sophomore fillies hoping to make it to the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in early May. There are five fillies who have each won their last two starts: Grandaria, Liora, Needs Supervision, Cowgirls Like Us and Mandy Blue. 

While Needs Supervision has the best Beyer Speed Figures from the above five fillies’ 10 winning races, Mandy Blue scored in her most recent race at 37-1 odds and now gets Lasix, which confuses the issue a bit.

Cowgirls Like Us actually won her last three but will be making her first start at the Fair Grounds. Mandy Blue did show an improved rally when trainer Brad Cox shipped her to the Fair Grounds and saw her score nicely in an allowance race on the Fair Grounds grass. 

All that said, I slightly prefer the chances of Liora who won the Golden Rod stakes at Churchill Downs at 27-1 in November and has run well in all four of her starts to date. 

In the $200,000 Lecomte Stakes for the boys, also at a mile and 70 yards, Tackett, a gelding, has demonstrated a definite liking for the Fair Grounds main track, having won both of his starts at this distance. One of those victories was over Wicked Indeed, a Steve Asmussen-trained colt who has been working sharply since Tackett beat him at this distance over this track in December.

In Florida

At Gulfstream Park, featured is the $200,000 Sunshine Millions Classic for Florida bred 4-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on the main track. 

While several potential upsetters are in this field, I give a slight edge to the lightly raced Souper Tapit, who seldom runs a poor race. He is well managed by trainer Mark Case and equally well handled by veteran jockey John Velazquez.

In California

Moving to the West Coast, where Santa Anita will offer the $200,000 Palos Verdes Stakes at six furlongs, Roy H, a winner of nine races from his 22 starts and a horse who has earned more than $3 million, seems the one to beat. But the field is loaded with good sprinters, including Conquest Tsunami, who runs equally well on dirt and turf.

As I see it, Saturday’s stakes races from coast to coast will focus on many good hoses in many reasonable spots. So, I wish all readers a fun-filled handicapping experience with good luck and safe journeys.

Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation. Click here to read past editions.