Across the Board: Davidowitz's Breeders' Cup 2018 takeaways

Noted handicapper Steve Davidowitz's takeaways from all 14 Breeders' Cup races...

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

My thoughts: Bulletin looks to be a pure sprinter who obviously likes the grass. Do not see him as any kind of contender in next season’s Triple Crown series.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

My thoughts: The winner sure looked and acted like a natural middle distance turf horse, and her talented trainer, Chad Brown, rarely places his better horses (such as this one) beyond their natural talents. Second place finisher East was the first of many European imports who demonstrated they'd be a force in the championships' grass races, a theme throughout both days.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

The Bob Baffert-trained Game Winner remained unbeaten here, scoring his fourth straight race at even-money odds, with a tactically perfect run from mid-pack that earned this son of Candy Ride a 93 Beyer figure. Complexity set the pace but faded badly entering the stretch. Otherwise, the 40-1 longshot Knicks Go did do well to challenge the winner, who bumped him approaching the final furlong. Nevertheless Kicks Go held on for second, wile 70-1 Signalman finished a well beaten third.

My thoughts: Not sure that Game Winner is the best long range prospect in Baffert’s barn for the Kentucky Derby. But, I loved his running style in this race, and we will have to see a few of his other young horses early in the winter to downgrade this one. 

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Shamrock Rose had no problem with her extreme outside post position to rally for her score at 25-1 to  earn a 92 Beyer Speed Figure. Chalon held well for a gritty second-place finish, while stretch runners Anonymity and Marley's Freedom were a close third and fourth.

My thoughts: In such a closely matched filed, there was no question that Marley’s Freedom was a severely over-bet 4-5 wagering favorite.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

Stormy Liberal exploded to repeat his 2017 victory in this race with a strong 119 Beyer Speed Figure. World of Trouble tried to wire the field, but did well to hold on to second, with Disco Partner a well-beaten third and Ruby Notion fourth.

My thoughts: This performance ranks close to the best by any Breeders’ Cup horse across the weekend. It’s usually very difficult to repeat in one of these races, and Stormy Liberal not only did that but put forth hard-fought effort that earned him a 119 Beyer. Of equal importance, the horse who gave him such a stiff challenge, World of Trouble, is only 3 and certainly will deserve a close look wherever he runs again.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

City of Light, the only horse this year to defeat Accelerate, came into this race with four good 2018 efforts and excellent recent training drills. With those credentials, City of Light took control from Catalina Cruiser leaving the back stretch and never was threatened by second place finisher Seeking the Soul, or third place finisher Bravazo. In this victory, City of Light earned a 110 Beyer, the best of his career. 

My thoughts: Some might have thought that being forced to break from the inside rail at this one turn mile distance would prove to be a tough nut to overcome. Yet, City of Light was a dominant winner here and I believe we will see even better with him going forward.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Sistercharlie, trained by Chad Brown, entered this race having finished first or second in nine of her 10 career starts, including a trio of Grade 1 wins this year in Kentucky, New York and Illinois. Here she rallied for a desperate score at 3-1 over Wild Illusion, while another Brown trainee, A Raving Beauty, finished third after setting the pace. The final time was 2:20.96, and it earned the winner a 103 Beyer Figure. 

My thoughts: I believe  this race was run as it was promised with the right two horses who finished first and second doing just that. 

Breeders' Cup Sprint

Here we had our second repeat Breeders' Cup winner as Roy H, a five-time hero at this distance, followed up last year's score at Del Mar. Fact is, Roy H looked like a winner almost every step of the way, catching Whitmore, who ran well despite a slow start. Imperial Hint was third as Promises Fulfilled faded from the lead to finish fourth. Roy H completed his six furlongs in 1:08.24 to earn a 111 Beyer for the third time in his career.

My thoughts: This was another race that played out exactly as I believed it would. The winner, now 6 years old, has an excellent overall record and is one of the better 6 furlong horses I’ve seen in several years. If he stays in training, he could join Goldikova by winning three Breeders' Cup races in a row.

Breeders' Cup Mile

As we saw in a few other turf races, this grass race was won by the Euro-based Expert Eye, who out-finished a few well-meant contenders who were challenging in the stretch. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Expert Eye rallied on the outside to earn a moderate 101 Beyer Speed Figure for his score as Catapult, a useful sort, rallied for second, a bit behind the winner. Meanwhile, Analyze It held third and longshot Divisidero made a fair late run for fourth, but acted as if we have not seen his best yet. 

My thoughts: Here’s another example of a European import scoring in a Breeders' Cup grass race. We should all keep that firmly in mind next year.

Breeders' Cup Distaff

My thoughts: The consistency of Monomoy Girl is not only impressive, but is a rarity in horse racing, even at this Grade 1 level. Actually, even though I liked Wow Cat as a pre-race upset threat, and though she ran relatively well, she proved to me that she is unlikely to ever beat Monomoy Girl. Frankly, I don’t believe any of the fillies and mares that finished behind the winner are likely to reverse the verdict anytime soon.  

Breeders' Cup Turf

As we saw in so many of this year’s grass races, a Euro import scored as a logical favorite. That’s because, this favorite, Enable, merely had won the prestigious Arc de Triomphe in France before shipping to Kentucky for trainer John Gosden who, once upon a time, was a top U.S.-based horseman. In this race, Enable performed strongly throughout and clearly was better than Magical, who finished second, or Sadler's Joy, who was a distant third. Actually, this was Enable’s seventh career score in her as many lifetime tries at 1 1/2 miles on the grass -- a record almost unheard of. Enable also became the first horse to win a Breeders' Cup race in the same season as the Arc de Triomphe. Enable’s final time was 2:32.65, and her Beyer was a solid 114.

My thoughts: Frankly, I believe the above expresses all that was important about this race.

Breeders' Cup Classic

The winner, Accelerate, was tough to load and had to break from the extreme outside 14 post. Yet he entered the race with five wins and a second from his six 2018 starts and looked that good while staying clear of trouble under jockey Joel Rosario to score a convincing victory at 5-2 odds. Gunnevera rallied with good speed to catch Thunder Snow as Yoshida finished fourth over pace-setter Mendelssohn. Accelerate ran his 10 furlongs in 2:02.93 to earn a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. 

My thoughts: While not a fan of Accelerate, and I thought he might be compromised by the extreme outside post, he dd nothing wrong throughout 2018 and was quite impressive winning this over a respectable field that included a pair of Bob Baffert trainees who did not fire. Otherwise, second-place finisher Gunnevera rallied well from far back and seems in line to catch a field with more early speed. If and when he does, the price will be right!

In conclusion

At the bottom line, as I mentioned in a few of my earlier comments, I thought the domination of the European imports was the most important development to come out of this year’s Breeders' Cup. Moreover, with their success- on the turf, I expect we will see more Euros entered in many more Breeders’ Cup turf races as we move forward.

And readers., may I suggest that you might look for my analysis of emerging young horses going forward as we near the New Year and the peak of Triple Crown prep season.

Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation.