Across the Board: Complexity one to watch in Breeders' Cup
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Several millions of dollars were up for grabs in stakes on Saturday, along with a like amount in stakes races on Sunday. Yet, the rich purses offered in these races were not nearly as important as which horses proved to their connections that they deserve a spot in a Breeders’ Cup race at Churchill Downs on Friday Nov. 2, or Saturday, Nov. 3.
With that premise, this column will share several practical observations gleaned from the array of Saturday stakes, each designed to help readers make sensible Breeders’ Cup plays.
First, at Belmont Park
I thought that Disco Partner benefited from a slight break in training to score a solid victory in the six-furlong Belmont Turf Sprint.
While he earned a fine 105 Beyer Speed Figure while finishing strongly, I left the race wondering if the 5-1/2 furlong distance of the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint on Nov. 3 might be a tad too short for him. I’ll reserve final judgment until Breeders' Cup week.
Also on the Saturday Belmont card, the 2-year-old
Complexity validated his winning debut at Saratoga.
Taking early command of the one-mile, $500,000 Champagne stakes, Complexity earned a 94 Beyer while proving he will be a formidable pace factor in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile going 1 1/16 miles. Yet, as sharp as trainer Chad Brown is likely to have this promising youngster, Complexity still will need to deal with the Juvenile’s two-turn distance.
Moving on: Wow Cat’s 93 Beyer in the 1 1/8-mile Beldame at Belmont on Saturday ranks with the better fillies and mares in America. She also has three good efforts since arriving from South America. Yet, I believe she will need to improve another notch or two to handle a stronger and deeper group if she shows up in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff on Saturday, Nov.3. For me, Wow Cat will be a definite bet against.
Thoughts on Keeneland
At Keeneland on Saturday, Bucchero upset a moderate field of turf sprinters with a 96 Beyer. The key here is that that the distance at Keeneland on Saturday was the same as the 5-1/2 furlongs that will be offered for the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
That fact will give this 5-year-old a realistic look-in at another upset when he meets Disco Partner and others for $1 million race at Churchill on Saturday, Nov. 3. Another horse to watch in the Turf Sprint who competed in Saturday’s Keeneland race is Will Call. This 4-year-old colt already has two wins in such races at Churchill, including one over Bucchero at the Breeders' Cup distance.
In the six-furlong Thoroughbred Club of America at Keeneland on Saturday,
Golden Mischief earned a respectable 94 Beyer while scoring her eighth win from 11 lifetime starts at the distance. Nevertheless, Golden Mischief did lose her two previous races at Churchill Downs as well as her prior two at the seven-furlong Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint distance. Will be hard to support next out.
In the First Lady at one mile on the Keeneland turf course, the Chad Brown-trained
A Raving Beauty certainly earned respect for her third win in five U.S. starts, scoring a career-best 103 Beyer. But, there is going to be a deep field for the Filly & Mare Turf, so I urge readers to reserve final judgment.
While
Knicks Go did win the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Saturday at 70-1 odds, he made no positive impression on me.
To conclude the Saturday Keeneland card, we might have been surprised by
Next Shares running the race of his life to win the Shadwell Turf Mile at 23-1, earning a 106 Beyer. But, I thought that third-place finisher Qurbaan's second straight good effort since shipping in from Europe identified him as a terrific longshot to consider in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
Also, at Santa Anita...
Roy H validated his standing as one of America’s top sprinters by convincingly winning the Santa Anita Sprint Championship over a small field that included highly ranked Ransom the Moon. Roy H earned solid 105 Beyer for his effort and now seems ready to take on the top eastern based sprinters in the Breeders' Cup Sprint at the same six-furlong distance. Although the likely Sprint field still is in flux, it will be interesting if the connections of the impressive 3-year-old Promises Fulfilled decide to go for this spot.
In Saturday’s City of Hope Mile,
Sharp Samurai demonstrated his fondness for the Santa Anita turf course, scoring his fifth victory from six career starts on the course. While he earned a respectable 103 Beyer, I thought that second-place finisher Fly to Mars flashed just as much power and will deserve a close look at good odds in the Breeders' Cup Mile, which is shaping up to be a highly competitive affair.
Added Notes: At this writing, I don't yet have the speed figures from Sunday’s round of stakes, though I was impressed by Jaywalk’s dominant win over decent 2-year-old fillies in the Frizette at Belmont, and Fourstar Crook’s strong finish to win the Flower Bowl on Belmont’s inner turf course stood out as well. Next week, I’ll take a close look at contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation.
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