Across the Board: Best of the Kentucky Derby trail's still ahead
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In
Friday’s Across the Board column that focused on the leading Saturday races for promising 3-year-olds, I pointed out that
Tax was going to take some betting at the windows in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. In addition, I similarly hinted that the Bob Baffert-trained
Mucho Gusto could turn out to be clearly best in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) stakes at Santa Anita.
The upset victory by
Harvey Wallbanger in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream came as a surprise. Yet, at the same time that performance was only a bit stronger than the trio of second-place finishes “Harvey” engineered in his first three career starts dating back to early September.
Said his trainer, Ken McPeek: "3-year-olds change a lot. When you’re working with one that is doing well, you do have a window of opportunity to run such a horse or horses in the highest profile races for developing horses. Good performances invariably suggest that one or more good efforts can legitimately point to a bright future in races leading to the Kentucky Derby."
McPeek continued: "Adversity, which Harvey Wallbanger overcame today, is what you’ve got to see. So are good performances against similar competition."
As McPeek saw Harvey’s improved performance, "He actually got a pretty favorable trip, racing behind favored Maximus Mischief and Epic Dreamer before he launched his winning move coming out of the final turn. I really liked how he did that.”
The final clocking for the 1 1/16-mile distance was 1:43.69, a respectable time that puts Harvey Wallbanger in the mix for the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) coming up next at Gulfstream Park.
Second-place finisher Everfast also benefited from the relatively strong fractional splits set by Epic Dreamer, and as I saw the race, each of the Top 4 finishers made positive impressions.
Santa Anita Derby a goal for Instagrand
Of course, the Derby trail will intensify quite a bit over the next month. I’ve been keeping an eye out for the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained
Instagrand who has been training forwardly for his seasonal debut.
“We haven’t picked out a race for him yet,” Hollendorfer said. “He’ll tell us when he’s ready. But we have been working him steadily and well within himself.”
“Instagrand is very fast,” Hollendorfer continued. And, he added, “We’re definitely encouraged by what we’ve seen him do to date.
“My best guess is that we’ll be letting him run faster in a workout or two as we get him ready for the Santa Anita Derby.”
Hollendorfer continued with his perspective of the competition building up their credentials in California.
“There are several good 3-year-olds training out here and we know we have one of the top contenders for the best races.”
In conclusion...
Players should realize that what we have seen so far with the sophomore prospects is likely to be surpassed in the next few weeks with horses like Game Winner, Improbable and then Instagrand preparing for their season debuts.
Given the performances by last year's 3-year-olds after the Kentucky Derby, there's plenty of reason to believe this year's group is better.
Stay tuned, as it looks like we're in for some big performances.
Steve Davidowitz has written many books on handicapping, including the classic, "Betting Thoroughbreds." His Across the Board columns appear regularly at Horse Racing Nation. Click here to read past editions.
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