Across the Board: Baffert's Kentucky Derby duo trending up

Oaklawn Park played host to split divisions of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Saturday, and neither trainer Bob Baffert nor the number of bettors who backed his two favorites were expecting to see both leading 2019 Kentucky Derby prospects suffer their first career defeats.

In the first division of the Rebel, Baffert’s Improbable went to the post with three victories in three career starts as well as a series of positive workouts. The betting public was so enamored with Improbable, they made this colt a heavy 1-5 wagering favorite. Nevertheless, the Steve Asmussen-trained Long Range Toddy rallied well to catch Improbable at 8-1 odds and lock himself in on points for the Derby. 

About an hour later, Game Winner narrowly lost the second division of the Rebel to Richard Mandella’s improving Omaha Beach. Frankly, it was hard not to notice that this latter son of War Front had run well in five maiden races, then jumped up for a nine-length score last month. Mandella knew he had a genuine prospect and did not hesitate to ship Omaha Beach to Arkansas to test him.

It also made sense for Mandella to make this move into graded stakes company after Omaha Beach turned in a series of fast workouts at Santa Anita Park and Los Alamitos. The breeze pattern concluded with a strong six furlongs in 1:10.80, one of the best (and fastest) you'll see at that distance as he floated over the track March 9 at Los Al.

As this division of the 1-1/16 mile Rebel Stakes actually was run, Omaha Beach stayed close to the pace setters and had enough in his tank to fend off the Baffert-trained Game Winner. Keep in mind that Game Winner was making his 2019 debut, but had won the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at this 1 1/16-mile distance along with two other Grade 1 races last fall. 

Even in defeat, Game Winner certainly seemed to reinforce the opinion that he's Baffert's best Derby prospect, nearly winning off a layoff of more than three months, and after a work pattern interrupted by an unseasonably rainy winter in Southern California.

That said, we surely are only beginning to see the races and training moves that will help us identify the top Derby prospects. And, in case you haven’t noticed, virtually every one of the best developing 3-year-olds are posting fast times in the morning at this point, and doing so between five and seven furlongs to get ready for a larger target.

Still, did the two respective defeats suffered by the Bob Baffert trained Game Winner and Improbable push them down the ladder of legit Derby prospects?

Not in my book. 

Fact is, both of Baffert’s pair ran well enough to go on to try again and have every reason to improve and beat stiffer competition. The bottom line is that it’s relatively early in the Derby chase. As such, I believe that horseplayers should guard against giving any horse a convincing edge or disadvantage, pending what we see from any of them next time out.

I do not mean to brag, but I have picked and wagered on more than a couple dozen Derby winners during the past few decades. They were based on a careful review of each horse's respective credentials as they approached the race.

Please also realize that every trainer worth his or her salt wants to win a Kentucky Derby, but few actually know how. This year, Baffert could tie Ben Jones on the all-time list with his sixth victory in America's most-famous race. Need I say more?

Personally, of course, I am not a trainer. But, after charting the way Derby horses have developed for more than 40 years, I do know what they must display en route, and the Baffert duo seemed only to suffer minor hiccups in the Rebel Stakes.