Acorn fair odds: A bet against Good Cheer at odds on

Undefeated horses attract not only celebrity but also money, and that is a toxic combo when it comes to value even among the best horses.

So it goes with Good Cheer, who enters the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes on Friday at Saratoga undefeated in seven starts after an impressive 2 1/4-length score in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) five weeks ago at Churchill Downs.

And of course Good Cheer is the most likely winner of this 1 1/8-mile race against fellow 3-year-old fillies, but that 1-2 morning-line price is tough to take considering numbers-wise she is not overwhelmingly the best of these. Indeed, $5.40 to win the Oaks was more palatable than $3 or less to win this.

Part of the reason I am willing to oppose her is I have a clear choice against her. In races where I think the most likely winner is an underlay but am not excited to bet any other horse, I might look for an opportunity to single the underlaid favorite with other bombs or take an action bet on a silly price elsewhere in this race. But that is not in play here. From a horizontal perspective, there is an even more likely winner in the multi-race sequence than Good Cheer. I'll have more on that with New York Stakes (G1) fair odds.

As for this race, Shred the Gnar lacks the undefeated record or stakes success of Good Cheer, but those last two races, gate-to-wire victories by a combined 13 1/2 lengths, give hope that she can compete with these.

The big question is what happens early with La Cara to her inside and even Scottish Lassie on the rail and Look Forward on the outside. If new jockey Jose Ortiz can win the early battle, maybe he can win the war against Good Cheer.

My plan is to bet Shred the Gnar to win and a straight exacta with Good Cheer over that one. Some may be tempted to look at Bless the Broken and-or Quickick as underneath plays just because of the pace dynamics, and I get it. But I'd really need a premium on either of those two beating both Good Cheer and Shred the Gnar.