Wood Memorial analysis: 4 win contenders, 1 pick

The $750,000, Grade 2 Wood Memorial is one of the only five remaining qualifying races on the road to the 2021 Kentucky Derby. A field of nine 3-year-olds will go 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct on Saturday looking to pick up points available to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

As the winner of the Gotham (G3) in March at the Big A, Weyburn has 50 qualifying points and has a spot locked up in the Derby field.

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Brooklyn Strong, Candy Man Rocket and Risk Taking all have a victory in one of the early 10-point races on the Kentucky Derby trail and will need to finish in the top three to have a chance to get into the field on the first Saturday in May. The same can be said for Crowded Trade, who was second in the Gotham where he picked up 20 points.

Prevalence has a perfect 2-for-2 career records and will need to finish first or second in the Wood Memorial to make it into the Derby.

Here is a full field analysis for the Wood Memorial with the official track morning lines odds. Post time for race 10 is scheduled for 5:58 p.m. EDT.

1) Brooklyn Strong (6-1 – Wicked Strong – Daniel Velazquez / Manny Franco – 4: 3-0-1 - $195,000) Brooklyn Strong was last seen winning the Remsen (G2) on Dec. 5 at Aqueduct, earning 10 Derby qualifying points. Since then, the New York-bred got sick and Parx-based trainer Danny Velazquez took aim on the nine-furlong Wood Memorial. His latest series of workouts are promising, but it will not be easy to be competitive in the Wood after a five-month layoff. To his credit, Brooklyn Strong was a debut winner. Win contender.

2) Crowded Trade (4-1 – More Than Ready – Chad Brown / Eric Cancel – 2: 1-1-0 - $104,000) Crowded Trade was an impressive debut winner at Aqueduct in January. He came right back in the Gotham (G3), where he got to the lead after a poor start and then battled down the stretch to finish second by a nose behind Weyburn. That was an impressive effort in just his second start, and he should move forward in the two-turn Wood Memorial. Top choice.

3) Bourbonic (30-1 – Bernardini – Todd Pletcher / Kendrick Carmouche – 5: 2-1-0 - $65,880) This Calumet Farm homebred will make his first appearance on the Kentucky Derby trail after breaking his maiden for a $50,000 tag at Aqueduct in December. He came right back to win a starter allowance going a mile at the Big A. He was last seen rallying for second in an allowance at Parx on a sloppy track. Calumet likes to step up and take a shot in big races as they are doing here. Toss.

4) Risk Taking (5-2 – Union Rags – Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 4: 2-0-0 - $182,530) In December, Chad Brown switched Risk Taking from turf to dirt and put on blinkers, and he went on to win his next two starts at Aqueduct going nine furlongs. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 and then moved onto the Kentucky Derby trail and won the Withers (G3) by 3 3/4 lengths. His closing style will serve him well in the Wood Memorial as he tries to qualify for the Derby, with Brown seeking his first win in the Run for the Roses. In the final edition of the KDFW, he closed at 30-1. Like so many others in this field, he has a legitimate chance to win. Win contender.

5) Dynamic One (12-1 – Union Rags – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 4: 1-1-0 - $54,120) Dynamic One is owned by the interesting partnership of Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable and Phipps Stable. The son of Union Rags was bred by Phipps Stable, which does not usually own in partnership. Clearly, he is one of those slowly developing 3-year-olds in the care of soon-to-be Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. He broke his maiden by more than five lengths last month in his fourth try, going 1 1/8 miles at the Big A. His first two races were loaded with quality runners who became stakes winners. Dynamic One is another who prefers to race from a stalking position. He feels a little bit like Known Agenda, who also needed time to mature and just won the Florida Derby (G1). Live long shot.

6) Prevalence (3-1 – Medaglia d’ Oro – Brendan Walsh / Tyler Gaffalione – 2: 2-0-0 - $52,800) Prevalence is a Godolphin home-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro who will make his only try to qualify for the Kentucky Derby after winning his first two starts impressively. The Brendan Walsh runner was a bit of a secret when he broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park by 8 1/2 lengths at odds of nearly 8-1. His second start was delayed a bit by a mild fever, yet he won that one-mile allowance by three lengths at odds of .10-1. He was respected enough to have been part of the individual bets in the fifth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager of the year and closed at 21-1, which is the fifth choice. We will find out just how good he is really. Win contender.

7) Candy Man Rocket (12-1 – Candy Ride – Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado – 4: 2-0-0 - $144,824) Candy Man Rocket emerged on the Derby trail when he stretched out from an impressive sprint victory as a maiden to winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, giving him 10 qualifying points. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott took him to the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), where he disappointed with an 11th-place finish. Candy Man Rocket won his two races when he was able to press the pace. He will need to find his best stride again, but even so, the nine furlongs does not seem ideal. Toss.

8) Weyburn (9-2 – Pioneerof the Nile – Jimmy Jerkens / Trevor McCarthy – 4: 2-1-0 - $227,520) It took Weyburn three tries to break his maiden, which he did going a mile on a sloppy track at Aqueduct as the even-money favorite. He faced quality fields in his first two starts but he was ignored in the Gotham when he pressed the pace and won at odds of 46-1. He picked up 50 Derby points and the owners suddenly had the need to spend $6,000 to nominate him late to the Triple Crown series. He was also part of the final KDFW, where he ended up at 35-1. His presence in the Wood Memorial makes it seem like trainer Jimmy Jerkens is serious about running in the Kentucky Derby. Like so many others, he has a legitimate chance to win this Saturday. Win contender.

9) Market Maven (30-1 – Super Ninety Nine – Penny Pearce / Dexter Haddock – 4: 2-1-0 - $61,890) It looks like the van to Aqueduct from Parx will be pretty full and will include this Pennsylvania-bred. Mighty Maven broke his maiden against state-breds and then won an allowance against open company with a front-end effort going two turns on a sloppy track. The home-bred gelding is up against it in this field. Toss.

Summary: This edition of the Wood Memorial can best be described as contentious. Four of the eight horses already have recorded a victory on the Kentucky Derby trail. Throw in the unbeaten Prevalence, a late-developing Pletcher runner in Dynamic One, and the Gotham runner-up Crowded Trade and that makes a wide-open battle for two or possibly three spots in the gate on the first Saturday in May.

Bettors are going to have to let the odds board be their guide because all of these win contenders cannot get heavily bet. Most likely to get overlooked are Brooklyn Strong, Weyburn and Dynamic One.