A Bailout Special pick to appreciate Friday at Keeneland

During Keeneland’s Spring Meet, I introduced my “Bailout Special” which, simply, is a handicapping piece that highlights which horse I think will win each card’s finale.

Had a bad day at the track? Use the “Bailout Special” to get some of that money back. Have a good day at the track and want to finish strong? There’s the “Bailout Special.” Maybe you’re looking for a bold single to end a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence. Use the “Bailout Special.” The horse I land on won’t always be the horse with the best perceived value. Neither will it be the horse I think “could win if the pace scenario sets up perfectly.” My selection will be the horse that I think has the absolute best chance to win the race regardless of projected odds. Were some of my winners (I went 7-for-16 in the Spring Meet) the prohibitive favorite? Yes. Were some of the winners so-called easy selections? Yes. But the goal is to pick the winner of the last race of the day at Keeneland every day they run. I’ll have some horses scratch, and if the weather is bad and the finale comes off the turf, there may not be a pick to play. For the first weekend of this fall meet my selections finished second, second and first from Thursday through Sunday. On opening day, I actually chose an also-eligible that made it into the race; my other choice won it. Unfortunately, I’ve developed a bit of “seconditis” as most of my “Bailout Special” picks have finished right behind the race winner. Race 10 $75,000 allowance 3-years old and up 1 mile on turf; post time 6:03 p.m. ET It’s always fun to use the word penultimate, so it’s appropriate to mention that this will be the second-to-last Bailout Special of the fall Keeneland meet. While my winning percentage wasn’t as high in the fall as it was in April, it has still be a fruitful effort tackling the finale every race day of October. Knock on wood, we only had one pick scratch (last Sunday, in case you were wondering). And after getting off to an awkward start thanks to an also-eligible that did draw in, we’ve only had AE trouble once. All in all, it’s been a decent showing, but nothing like the Spring. Enough about the past. Let’s look forward. In the finale on Friday, I think I have a play readers will really appreciate. A well-drawn allowance on the turf going nine furlongs, there are some hard knockers in the last race of the day. Credit Swap (post 1) is the morning line favorite at 5/2, and he should be on the engine early. But Bruder Bob (post 8) should press Credit Swap early, and I see the two tussling early in a brisk, contested pace. While I appreciate frontrunners as much as the next handicapper I don’t think we’ll see much from with either of these late in the race. They’ll probably burn each other out. That makes my top choice Apreciado (post 3) for trainer Mike Maker and jockey Corey Lanerie. He finished second at this level on October 4 to Bemma’s Boy, a very accomplished runner. Two races back, he was in a bit over his head at Kentucky Downs, and although he went off at 10-1 odds, he wasn’t going to beat Dontblamerocket or Patriot Drive that day. I was surprised with how River Echo faded in that race, but the point is Apreciado ran against much tougher two races in a row. That experience will bode well for him on Friday, as I think he’s the easy winner and know we won’t get the 5-1 on the morning line. Anything equal to or north of 5-2 will be a blessing.