ALERT: PACE MELTDOWN in the BC Sprint - TimeformUS

By TimeformUS Analyst Mike Beer

As you might expect for a Grade 1 dirt sprint offering up $1.5 million, there are plenty of fast horses set to line up for the 2014 edition of the Breeders' Cup Sprint.   There are 14 set to go, with two others waiting on the AE list, and our Pace Projector predicts...wait for it...a fast pace.  Craig Milkowski, our Chief Figure Maker at TFUS, ranks the Sprint #1 for the BC weekend of races as far as paces go, expecting it to be very fast indeed.  

According to Pace Projector, the 3yo #12 Fast Anna (blinkers back on) will be in front early, pursued by #13 Work All Week, a very cool horse who is currently 9-for-9 on dirt and 11-for-14 overall.  There will be several others giving chase to those two, and the closers behind them will be waiting things out until the later stages, while hoping things come back to them a little bit.

Here's the field, in post position order and with the morning line odds in parentheses.

#1 is Seeking the Sherif (20/1).  A cheap claim at the end of 2013, he has paid tremendous dividends, and is now Grade 1-placed and holding an entry into a Breeders' Cup race.  A speed-type, he has taken the worst of the draw, which is bad news for a horse who needed some breaks to be competitive coming in.

#2 is Indianapolis (12/1).  Undefeated in just three career attempts for Baffert, he tops out at 100 on the TFUS Speed Figure scale, which leaves him plenty to find in this field.  Second off the layoff and the fact that he holds plenty of upside are part of the silver lining, but this is a very tough spot.

#3 is Wind Fire (30/1).  Fast 3yo filly has never run on dirt, but there is plenty of it in her pedigree (94 Breeding Rating for dirt sprints).  She's gotten plenty of work in over two seasons on the track, but was regarded as a notch below the top level in Europe and figures to find this assignment too tough.

#4 is Secret Circle (9/2).  Defending champ will try something of a similar pattern in title defense, as he comes here second off of a lengthy layoff (though not as long as last year's).  His 3rd in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship first time back was a solid, if unspectacular, performance, but one he is certainly eligible to build upon.  He has speed, but he doesn't need the lead to be effective, and Pace Projector places him in midpack early.  We thought he faced a decidedly weak group in winning this race last year, but he won't find this group much tougher, and he is a major threat to become just the second horse to win back-to-back Breeders' Cup Sprints (Midnight Lute is the other).  

#5 is Private Zone (6/1).  A dual Grade 1 winner over six furlongs (he has won each of the last two runnings of the Vosburgh), he is a fast sprinter who enjoys a good stretch battle.  He enjoys them so much, in fact, that he will tend to idle in the stretch unless, and until, he is engaged.  That is a problem in a race like this one, as is the expected pace scenario.  

#6 is Rich Tapestry (5/1).  World-class runner arrived from Hong Kong to run in the Grade 1 Sprint Championship (no lasix) and proved up to the challenge in defeating two Breeders' Cup winners (Goldencents and Secret Circle).  He will face a far different scenario today, as that short field featured a moderate pace (note pace figures/fractions shaded in blue), one he had little trouble keeping up with.  While he has been given extra credit in some quarters for overcoming a slower pace, to us, he got a perfect trip in that race.  We are not so sure that he will be suited to the faster-paced affair he is sure to encounter here, but if he is able to deal with it, he may be the horse to beat.  

#7 is Mico Margarita (15/1).  Three wins from eight tries this year, but he has yet to succeed above the listed level as an older horse.  Those wins have come at tracks like Remington Park, Mountaineer, and Evangeline Downs, and he has been defeated without much fuss by Work All Week three times already this year.  He does have the right off-the-pace running style for a race like this one, but whether he has the goods to take advantage at this level of racing is another question entirely.

#8 is Palace (6/1).  An excellent claim by Linda Rice back in the autumn of 2012, he has gone on to put over $1.2 million in the bank since then, and is now a dual Grade 1 winner.  His TFUS Speed Figures have topped out at 111, which is going to leave him something to find if horses like Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry bring their best, but he is nothing if not a gamer, and his adaptable running style will play very well in this race.  

#9 is Salutos Amigos (6/1).  One big, and obvious, question regarding this in-form runner:  Will he be able to run up to his best on a quick turnaround and a cross-country trek just 7 days after posting an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler last Saturday?  His trainer has gotten good results wheeling back like this (90 rating), but doing it at the Breeders' Cup level is quite a bit different from doing it at the maiden and claiming level, which is where most of that success lies.  We like the form this horse has been in since arriving in Jacobson's barn earlier this year, and we like his closing style for this race, as well.  

#10 is Big Macher (12/1).  Another successful claim early on, he has won a pair of graded stakes sprints already this year, including the Grade 1 Bing Crosby two starts back over Goldencents.  Not thrilled to see him enter here off of a no-show performance, and it is worth noting that his important earlier wins were accomplished with the benefit of perfect trips tracking moderate paces.  He seems way up against it in this spot in current form.  

#11 is Bakken (10/1).  A lightly raced talent, he will be taking a major step up in class to try this spot.  He has not managed to put together any kind of campaign this year as a 4yo, but he ran quite well when splitting Palace and Salutos Amigos on his reappearance, and he disposed of allowance foes most recently without much fuss.  On the plus side, he shipped out here as a 3yo and ran a very big race in a wickedly paced Malibu, which indicates that he has the ability to be a factor at this level.  They may just be taking a shot by entering this talented runner in a Breeders' Cup race at this time, but don't be surprised if he outruns his odds.  

#12 is Fast Anna (12/1).  3yo has no shortage of speed, but is pretty clearly biting off more than he can chew in this race.  Projects to be the early leader, but that's not an advantage considering the expected pace scenario, and he has never run fast enough to defeat a field of this caliber.

#13 is Work All Week (10/1).  One of the most interesting horses running here this weekend, he is undefeated on dirt and owns a top speed figure that is competitive with the better horses in this field.  He picked up his first graded stakes win when taking control on a fast pace at Keeneland in his prep for this, but he is not the controlling speed in this race, and he has not proven that he can rate and run.  

#14 is Bourbon Courage (30/1).  A graded stakes-quality router throughout his career, he is trying to reinvent himself in a very tough spot here.  Since he is the longest price on the ML, we are looking for reasons to like him, and we find plenty.  He has held his own going longer with the top handicap horses in the country over the past couple of years.  He managed to turn back effectively off the layoff last time.  A closer, he projects to have plenty of pace to close into in this race, and his big 110 Late Pace rating is second only to Rich Tapestry's in this field.  Enough to like about him to consider using at a big price. 

#15 is Bahamian Squall (20/1), who has been off his best form all year, and required a drop to allowance to get off the mark,  and #16 is Indexical (30/1), who has never won a stakes race and never won on dirt. Both will be big prices should they get in.

The Play:  We think Rich Tapestry is the horse to beat in the Sprint. We will be using him, though we hold some concerns about his ability to deal with the faster pace he will encounter here.  Secret Circle is a logical contender, and we may even have fewer questions about him than we do about Rich Tapestry.  Our longshot to include is Bourbon Courage.  We have long been a believer in this horse, while always feeling that shorter distances would suit him better.  He may be more of a miler type, but the set-up will be there for him, and we will look for him to come running late for a big piece of this race.