85% of recent Kentucky Derby winners meet this standard

From Lil E Tee in 1992 to Sovereignty in 2025, 85% of the cashable Kentucky Derby winners have answered yes to a simple question at the fingertips of horseplayers.

At some point before the first Saturday in May, did they have a Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95?

Last year Sovereignty was one of 12 top-20 qualifiers who cleared that bar, which has been met by 29 of the last 34 cashable Derby winners. This year, before the inevitable dropouts, there are only seven from the 17 who were graded at 95 or above in U.S. races. The three international qualifiers for the Derby have not been measured.

12 Derby horses stand out in Final Fractions Theory.

Best priced at 4-1, futures favorite Renegade moved to the top of the boards in Las Vegas fixed odds and Churchill Downs pari-mutuels with his four-length victory March 28 in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. According to Daily Racing Form, that earned the Into Mischief colt a career-best 98 Beyer.

Further Ado’s 106 for his 11-length runaway Saturday in the Blue Grass (G1) is the top Beyer among the 20 horses who currently would be in the main draw for the Derby. The other 95-pluses are Florida Derby (G1) top two Commandment and The Puma, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy and runner-up Potente and Louisiana Derby (G2) first-place finisher Emerging Market.

Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 were the most recent cashable Derby winners who did not have 95 Beyers beforehand. The term cashable includes Medina Spirit, who was not disqualified from his 2021 win until long after bettors who backed him were paid in full. Medina Spirit, by the way, came in with a best Beyer of 99, and promoted victor Mandaloun had a 98 beforehand.

Brisnet Speed Ratings are not as strong a barometer in determining Derby success. Twenty of the last 26 cashable winners, or 77%, had at least a 100 rating coming to Churchill Downs. Sovereignty’s 99 barely missed last year. Rich Strike did no better than a 95 before his 80-1 surprise four years ago.

This year, nine of the current top 17 from the U.S. meet the 100-plus Brisnet criterion. They are led by Further Ado and also include Commandment, So Happy, Emerging Market, The Puma and Potente. Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt and prep board hitters Pavlovian and Golden Tempo also had three-digit ratings.

Renegade is conspicuous by his absence from the 100 Brisnet club. His best ratings were 97s in his Sam F. Davis and Arkansas Derby victories.

Both the Beyers and Brisnet numbers were not kind to the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct or the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, both major points preps for the Derby. Albus, who won the Wood at odds of 11-1 on Saturday, earned only an 83 Beyer, one point shy of his career best, and a weak 91 Brisnet rating. Fulleffort just missed the targets of 95 and 100 with his 94 Beyer and 99 Brisnet number for winning the Jeff Ruby on March 21.

As if these figures needed warning labels, a cursory search showed Indian Charlie and Halory Hunter had 111 Beyers going into the 1998 Kentucky Derby. They finished third and fourth, 2 3/4 lengths behind Real Quiet.

Derby contenders’ Beyers and Brisnet ratings are shown alongside TimeformUS numbers from DRF and Horse Racing Nation speed figures, neither of which has established the same sorts of trends for Derby winners as Beyers and Brisnet.