7 potential singles on massive Saturday of stakes action

Huge race days usually attract racing's biggest stars. As fun as it is to watch these great horses run, the presence of stars typically leads to many races with odds-on favorites.

While some of these odds-on runners will deliver, it is extremely rare that they all do. Finding the vulnerable favorites amongst the bunch is the key to leveraging value in Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6 wagering.

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Saturday will be one of racing biggest days of the year with Breeders' Cup preps throughout the country and this year's final jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Below we take a look at 7 horses that many people will single on their tickets at Pimlico, Keeneland and Belmont Park to evaluate if they are trustworthy or not.

Juliet Foxtrot (Race 2, Gallorette, Pimlico)

This mare is the class of a rather ordinary Grade 3 and will win this race with her best effort. The question is, will we see that effort on Saturday? After winning her first three U.S. starts, she is winless in six subsequent outings. What is most concerning is that two of her three lowest Beyer Speed Figures since arriving in this country have come in 2020. Though she has been holding her own against G1 company, she actually ran her worst race in the Brad Cox barn when she dropped into similar G3 company earlier this year. She is a must-use as the class of this bunch, but she has possibly lost her desire to win and is a tough single. Expect She'sonthewarpath and No Mo Lady to make her work.

Verdict: No, she should not be singled 

Mundaye Call (Race 5, Miss Preakness, Pimlico)

Brad Cox has the two shortest-priced favorites in the early Pick 5 sequence at Pimlico and this is the runner that should be singled. This expensive filly has always been held in high regard and she looked well on her way to big things after rattling off three wins in a row. Her stakes win at Ellis Park resulted in a geared down 100 Beyer Speed Figure, which is awfully impressive for a 3-year old female sprinter.

She went off even money in the Eight Belles, but had no chance in that race. She was asked to duel from the rail with the talented Four Graces. They went :44.14 for a blistering half and set it up for the closing Sconsin. She now draws towards the outside, shortens from seven to six-furlongs and catches a field with less class and speed. She will be long gone.

Verdict: Yes, she is a reliable single

Bonny South (Race 10, Black-Eyed Susan, Pimlico)

This is yet another race on Pimlico's card featuring a short-priced Brad Cox runner. He has four horses at 7-5 or lower on the morning line. This filly ran a solid second to Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure and there are no such beasts in here.

That is the positive, but was that race an anomaly? Though she did have an improving pattern, her previous highest Beyer was an 87 in the Ashland where she only defeated one horse in a five horse field. Her 87 number puts her in the mix here, but she far from a standout on prior form.

It is possible that Bonny South improved dramatically at 1 1/4 miles in the Alabama. She cuts back to 1 1/8 miles here. She could be an improving filly who is too good for these or that last race may be a bit of a fluke. Do you really want to find out at even money? I know I certainly do not. After all, someone had to run second to Swiss Skydiver, right? 

Verdict: No, she is not a trustworthy single

Authentic (Race 11, Preakness, Pimlico)

Plenty of people will rush to single the Kentucky Derby winner as Bob Baffert goes for his eighth Preakness. There is no denying his talent, but was his Kentucky Derby as good as it looks on paper? If you were to remove Tiz the Law and Honor A. P. from that race, then this year's Derby becomes a lousy field.

Honor A. P. had a miserable trip in the Derby and Tiz the Law regressed from his best, which makes many wonder if he does not care for Churchill, the site of his only two losses. Authentic deserves credit for setting strong fractions in the Derby, but he was unopposed on the lead. Will he be as effective if a horse as talented as Art Collector looks him in the eye early? Authentic can absolutely win this race, but the fresh Art Collector seems every bit as good or better. Use Authentic, but do not single him.

Verdict: No, he should not be singled

Newspaperofrecord (Race 8, First Lady, Keeneland)

This filly is devastating to her opponents on the front-end when she is on her game and she appears set to bring her 'A' game on Saturday. She looked untouchable as a 2-year-old and after a disappointing 3-year-old campaign, Chad Brown had her back to her dominate ways as a a 4-year-old in her first two starts. Though she was run down by Beau Recall last time, circumstances favor this filly on Saturday. Beau Recall adores Churchill Downs, with her two best races coming there.

Newspaperofrecord also went faster than she had to early on in that race to help set it up for Beau Recall. There is not much speed signed on to contest her in here and she should be able to turn the tables. With Uni appearing out of form, she only has one horse to beat and that is worth the gamble.

Verdict: Yes, she is a reliable single

Frank's Rockette (Race 5, Gallant Bloom, Belmont Park)

It is usually wise to play against a 3-year-old facing older for the first time in stakes company, but this is not one of those cases. The razor sharp Frank's Rockette catches a field devoid of talent and early speed. Her biggest threat Bronx Beauty may even scratch to run at Pimlico. This ultra-consistent filly has never been worse than 2nd in nine career starts and she is in the best form of her life. There is no reason to think that she will not keep rolling along at a very short price.

Verdict: Yes, she can be trusted as a single

Code of Honor (Race 8, Kelso, Belmont Park)

In this year's Kelso, which could end up being a four horse field, a single seems like a smart idea. The favorite Code of Honor is not the horse you should single however. There is no evidence that Code of Honor has progressed as a 4-year-old after a great 3-year-old campaign. He beat a soft field in his return race, was just average in the Met Mile and was flat in the Whitney. I am not convinced that he will snap back to his best form while shortening up to a one-turn mile. He is also pace dependant and there is little of that in here. Complexity is in better form and has a huge pace advantage. He should stroll on the lead unopposed in this short field and will be long gone just like when these two met in the Champagne as 2-year-olds. Complexity is the horse to single in here, not Code of Honor.

Verdict: No, he cannot be trusted as a single