5 worthwhile Wednesday wagers for Keeneland
Here’s how I’ll be playing the final Wednesday card of the Keeneland spring meeting.
Best bet: Floriform (Race 6)
Best value bet: Good Measure (Race 2)
Race 2
#3 Good Measure (5-1) was a rallying fifth in her lone turf try going a mile at Laurel last fall. The deep-closing daughter of Smarty Jones may appreciate the added ground and cash at a decent price for a small field. #5 Federalist Papers (7-5, morning-line favorite) has looked comfortable going routes of ground on turf before, and handled 1 1/2-miles on dirt at Gulfstream last time out, finishing third. Irad Ortiz Jr. and Chad Brown are the formidable jockey-trainer combo behind her. #6 Bella Conchita (9-5) needed 10 starts to break her maiden, but doesn’t find a very deep group to make her debut against winners.
How I’d bet it (based on $100 budget):
$10 win 3, $5 exacta box 3/5
Race 5
#6 Midnightmakessense (9-2) was a solid second on debut at Mahoning Valley last month, and has solid connections in her corner in jockey Luis Saez (71: 12-10-9 at Keeneland) and trainer Eddie Kenneally (22: 5-5-2 at Keeneland). The follow-up works suggest she’ll move forward. #8 Darene (12-1) is a half-sister to 2021 Ohio Derby (G3) winner Masqueparade, shows some good morning drills for Ron Moquett and lures Tyler Gaffalione – lots to like at these odds. #10 Jumakan Bourbon (10-1) was in the money in both career starts at Turfway prior to this and may appreciate some added ground. #9 Coco Puff (9-2) has hit the board in two of three tries on fast dirt, including a runner-up result over this course last fall – fits underneath.
How I’d bet it:
$4 exacta 6/8,9,10, $4 win 6,8
Race 6
#9 Floriform (3-1, morning-line favorite) won two straight on turf – including a start at Keeneland – before hitting the shelf for 10 months. He came back to run a respectable third behind Shirl’s Speight – eventual winner of the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) – in the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3), and figures to improve off that effort. #5 Skyro (4-1) has been in the money in all three turf tries to date, and fits with this group on speed figures. #10 Monition (10-1) won each of his first two starts before finishing a puzzling sixth in the Gio Ponti Stakes at Aqueduct last November. But his comeback second at the Fair Grounds last month suggests that he’s live at a price in this spot. #1 Cellist (7-2) won the Audubon Stakes at Churchill, and was third in both the Belmont Derby (Grade I) and the Dueling Grounds Derby last year. However, his seventh-place finish in the Tampa Bay last time out raises a red flag.
How I’d bet it:
$6 exacta 9/1,5,10, $2 exacta 1,5/9, $2 win 10
Race 7
#5 Silent Disco (3-1) may not dazzle on speed figures, but he seems to be the only horse in this group finishing with interest of late, as he enters off back-to-back third-place efforts. #2 Expensive Cut (3-1) split the field in a similar spot over this course last week. He may take to the added ground he gets today under seven-pound apprentice Alice Beckman. #3 Down Cold (9-5, morning-line favorite) lures Tyler Gaffalione (75: 16-6-12 at Keeneland) off a fourth-place finish against slightly tougher at the Fair Grounds, but trainer Steve Asmussen has been chilly at the meet (13: 0-1-0).
How I’d bet it:
$12 win 5
Race 8
#5 American Pyramid (3-1) steps onto the lawn following two in-the-money efforts on dirt for trainer Wayne Catalano, who excels with this move (25 percent with first-time grass runners). She trained well for this this, and retains John Velazquez. #4 Spare Cash (5-2, morning-line favorite) is a logical alternative from the Brad Cox barn after three on-the-board efforts at Turfway. Gaffalione gets a leg-up in this heat. #1 Under One Sky (15-1) hinted at potential at Kentucky Downs last season, but things went haywire in two subsequent starts, albeit with excuses. The return works are good, Joel Rosario climbs aboard, and Lasix is added – watch the board.
How I’d bet it:
$10 exacta box 4/5, $2 win/place 1
Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper from New York.