5 wise Wednesday wagers for Keeneland

Here’s how I’ll play the Wednesday program at Keeneland.

Best bet: #4 Camp Hope (Race 7)

Best value bet: #5 Graywing (Race 6)

Race 1

#5 American Smooth (9-5, morning-line favorite) broke his maiden going this 1 1/16th-mile distance at the Fair Grounds two back before finding $50,000 starter allowance company too tough last time out. The drop in class and switch to Luis Saez (42: 7-6-8 at Keeneland this meet) for hot trainer Eddie Kenneally (11: 3-3-1) should prove too much for this group. #6 Savoy (5-2) tries a new low today. The speed figures say he’s capable, but he’s never crossed the wire in the money going a route of ground (0-for-4 on dirt). #2 Picasso (2-1) looks like the best of the rest based on speed figures. He’s never routed on dirt before, but the pedigree (by Tapit out of an Unbridled’s Song mare) says he’ll handle it. Irad Ortiz Jr. has the assignment.

How I’d bet it (based on $100 budget):

$12 exacta 5/6, $4 exacta 6/5, $4 exacta 5/2

Race 5

#2 Youens (7-2) has shown dramatic improvement since switching to the Joe Sharp barn and getting onto the turf, recording a pair of narrow runner-up results at the Fair Grounds in her last two starts. She takes a slight drop into starter allowance company, and Ortiz sees fit to climb aboard. #8 Dreamful (3-1, morning-line favorite) was second in a similar spot at Keeneland last winter and stayed in good form at Turfway this winter, tallying a trio of in-the-money finishes. Florent Geroux teams up with Brad Cox. #3 Silky Warrior (6-1), #6 Aizu (10-1), and #10 Runaway Rockette (8-1) will all be rolling late and look like possibilities for the minor spoils.

How I’d bet it:

$7 exacta 2/8, $4 exacta 8/2, $3 exacta 2/3,6,10

Race 6

#5 Graywing (5-1) has run one race on fast dirt, and it was a blowout victory over maiden claimers at Laurel. Lacey Gaudet has this son of Graydar drilling well in the mornings, and the rider change to Ortiz inspires confidence. #8 Kobe B (5-1) won as “ton best” in his first effort in over a year against maiden claimers at Turfway when last seen, and gets the chance to string together starts for the first time here. His most recent drill was strong, and he’s eligible to improve. #2 Beep Beep (5-2, morning-line favorite) is a logical player based on speed figures as he makes his second start off the bench. This will be his first career start for a tag.

How I’d bet it:

$10 win 5, $1 exacta box 2/5/8, $1 exacta 2/5,8, $2 win 8

Race 7

#4 Camp Hope (3-1, morning-line favorite) won two straight races at Keeneland – including a $150,000 stake – prior to an unlucky loss in the Hollywood Derby (G1) before hitting the shelf. Assuming he’s not rusty off the bench, he should prove best against this group. #3 Glynn County (12-1) gets some needed class relief in this one and intrigues at a price on the cutback under Tyler Gaffalione. #1 Like the King (6-1) placed in multiple turf stakes last season for Wesley Ward but is now running for the ice-cold Mark Casse barn (15: 0-0-2 at Keeneland) while exiting a layoff. However, Flavien Prat will be in the irons. #10 Beacon Hill (4-1) fits on speed figures and offers Joel Rosario tactical options in his first start since running second in the Point of Entry Stakes at Belmont last autumn.

How I’d bet it:

$6 exacta 4/1,3,10, $2 win 3

Race 8

#4 Lapis Lazuli (4-1) showed improved early foot at the Fair Grounds when last seen, but clearly the drop in class here is called for. Look for Joe Talamo to try and wire the field in the nightcap. #9 Lunar Rocket (4-1) was third in both his prior dirt starts for Brad Cox, who wins at 32 percent going from maiden special weights to maiden claimers. #8 Art Heist (7-2, morning-line favorite) showed some signs of ability in his first three starts, including a second-place result sprinting at the Fair Grounds on debut. If you can forgive his last two – a misguided turf try and a second sprint start that featured a poor break from the gate – Art Heist is a win candidate on the class drop. #11 Hearns (6-1) nearly wired similar foes at Turfway in his career unveiling; don’t overlook.

How I’d bet it:

$2 exacta box 4/8/9, $3 exacta 4/8,9, $2 exacta 4/11

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper from New York.