5 wagers for the Wednesday card at Keeneland

How I will play Wednesday's card at Keeneland.

Best bet: #4 Ride the Plan (race 4)

Best value bet: #7 Laughing Boy (race 7)

Race 2

#8 Nepotism (7-5, morning-line favorite) drops in for a tag after going 0-for-7 against maiden special weight company. Trainer Johnathan Thomas wins at an astounding 42 percent clip with this move, and Luis Saez remains in the irons. Nepotism stands out on speed figures too. #2 California Flirt (12-1) was second beaten just a nose in his lone try against maiden claiming foes, albeit over the synthetic surface at Turfway. Horses shipping in from the Florence, Ky., oval during opening week at Keeneland were not disgraced, picking up three victories. Johnny Unleashed was a notable runner-up in the Shakertown Stakes (G2) at a huge price. #3 Tricolour (10-1) ran in the money two straight times at the Fair Grounds against similar foes and picks up Tyler Gaffalione (24-5-1-4 over opening weekend) for this.

How I’d bet it (based on $100 budget):

$10 exacta 8/2, $6 exacta 8/3, $4 win 2

Race 3

#5 Delta Gamma Cats (3-1) has never been out of the exacta on conventional dirt, and kept in good form at Turfway over the winter, save for two off-the-board efforts against stakes foes. She beat $30,000 claimers over this course last fall, and finds a soft spot for her return. #6 Russian Roulette (5-2, morning-line favorite) profiles as the controlling speed shipping in from Delta Downs. A popular item at the claim box, she goes first time out for Matt Shirer, who wins at 17 percent with first-off-the-claim runners. Russian Roulette fits on speed figures and lures Gabriel Saez. #7 War Empress (4-1) has run only once on conventional dirt, and it was a 12-length romp against maiden claiming foes over this course. Though this is her first start since November, she would not be a surprise winner.

How I’d bet it:

$4 exacta 5/6,7, $1 exacta box 5/6/7, $1 trifecta box 5/6/7

Race 4

#4 Ride the Plan (3-1, morning-line favorite) had the misfortune of meeting consecutive runaway winners in her first two starts at the Fair Grounds. She doesn’t appear to be facing any world-beaters here, and drilled well over this course. A repeat of either of her first two career speed figures should put Ride the Plan into the winner’s circle. #11 Wet Love (10-1) was a solid second on debut at Turfway last month and adds Lasix for this, likely to improve. #3 Steal My Sunshine (4-1) has a decent second-place effort at Belmont from last May to run back to for the ever-dangerous connections of Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario, could get brave up front if left unchecked.

How I’d bet it:

$10 win 4, $5 exacta 4/11, $3 exacta 4/3, $2 win 11

Race 7

#7 Laughing Boy (8-1) is training well for his first start since November and should not be overlooked at these odds. He has hit the exacta in three of his last four outings, including a victory in his lone effort at Keeneland last October. #4 Stage Raider (3-1, morning-line favorite) flopped when last seen at Gulfstream, but a stumbling start and a long layoff could have been the culprits. Chad Brown adds blinkers and names Irad Ortiz Jr. to ride, watch for improvement. #6 Hidden Stash (12-1) returns to dirt following two in-the-money efforts on turf over the winter. The 2021 Tampa Bay Derby runner-up should not be dismissed.

How I’d bet it:

$8 win 7, $2 exacta box 4/6/7

Race 8

#7 Mercy Warren (4-1) was off slowly in each of her first two races, though much less so last time out, when she won by open lengths against maiden claimers at the Fair Grounds. With a clean getaway, she could improve on her fast last-out figure and beat starter allowance foes in the nightcap. #4 Dream Music (3-1, morning-line favorite) goes from one All-Star trainer to another, as Tom Amoss claimed her away from Brad Cox following an easy score against maiden claimers. Tyler Gaffalione jumps aboard this runner that stands to improve going second off the bench. #8 Santa Elena (7-2) carried her winning Belterra form to Churchill last November, beating $50,000 claimers for trainer Wesley Ward. She’ll have to overcome a layoff while jumping up the class ladder slightly, but that is far from impossible.

How I’d bet it:

$5 exacta 7/4,8, $3 exacta 4,8/7, $2 exacta box 4/8

Robert Criscola is a free-lance handicapper from New York.