5 superfecta keys for Aqueduct and Del Mar

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed – making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager. 

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key instead of box your selections.

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three situations to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly

The Saturday card at Aqueduct provides an opportunity on dirt and turf. Del Mar provides three opportunities across both surfaces.

At Aqueduct

Race 5

This is a run of the mill maiden claiming race that will be contested on the main track at 6.5 furlongs. The pace scenario is very similar to a six panel event, but that last added ½ furlong gives an added advantage to closers.

No entrant has had the lead at the second call, and that alone is significant to support focusing on those horses forwardly placed early. In spite of that, there may be some early pace pressure as a result of the running style of a few entrants coupled with jockeys pushing their horses knowing it will be hard to come from way out of it if a slow pace develops.

No. 8 Will Take Control is turning back from a mile turf event preceded by three dirt tries at the same distance all at Gulfstream with the last outing over eight months ago. He should be close enough to possibly upset if there is a pressured pace. This is your key horse at 8-1.

No. 7 Immortalization, trained by John Kimmel, has the strongest early speed and is the clear cut favorite off a huge class drop; the obvious betting choice has to be in the mix here. He may not look back.

No. 9 Rickys Revenge who improved last out after two prior starts should pressure Immortalization early and be around at the end for a share.

No. 6 Raising Sand, one of two Carlos Martin trainees, has raced exclusively on the turf and switches to dirt here. He had an excellent dirt work on November 7th and is a strong contender here. His running style suggests he will be there late and have something to say at the end. He is 12-1.

The final horse in this superfecta play is No. 3 Mister J T who may be able to pass horses in the stretch similar to Raising Sand. He improved substantially his last two dirt tries compared to earlier this year after trying turf last time out.

The play

10 cent Superfecta Key 8 with 3, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Artie Schiller Stakes at one mile on the turf brings together a field of very closely matched high quality turf runners; only one entrant looks completely overmatched here. The field has a combined record of consistency hitting the board on average at a rate of three out of five times at both this race distance on turf and overall on turf. I anticipate a moderate to fast pace, with one runner having an early advantage along with pressure from several other runners.

No. 11 Field Pass has run in ten straight graded turf stakes across seven different tracks. He is as consistent as any in this field and should be your key horse at 9-2. There is still room for improvement in this 4-year-old.

No. 1 Flavius, trained by Chad Brown, is the probable favorite here, and while a solid contender, has not run to his odds for the most part, but still must be included off his overall record and has the right running style to stalk the pace. Chad Brown runners are more often than not deep closers, and Flavius is especially dangerous because he appears to be able to come from way out of it too.

No. 6 Tell Your Daddy ran extremely close to Flavius when they met earlier this year in two non-graded events. He is close enough to be included here off those performances against Flavius and should run close to the pace in this event off some hot fractions.

The lightly raced 6-year-old No. 8 Breaking the Rules trained by Shug McGaughey will be closing into this field from mid-pack and has a chance to win if the pace is extremely fast. His odds are 8-1.

The superfecta is rounded out by No. 4 March to the Arch, one of two entrants trained by Mark Casse. Similar to Field Pass, he has raced largely in graded stakes (last 9 of 10 starts, mostly at Woodbine) and should be closing late. Like Breaking the Rules, he is 8-1.

The play

$.10 Superfecta Key 11 with 1, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

At Del Mar

Race 3

This one-mile event for 3-year-olds and up open company maiden claimers will be contested on the dirt; this condition is the lowest at the meet for older horses. Three runners are stretching out to a mile for the first time.  I do not anticipate a fast pace here.

No. 5 Straus’s Place trained by Phil D’Amato is one of those stretching out to a mile. He has an even running style and the added distance would appear to suit him; he should relax and close with authority; this is your key horse at 8-1.

Peter Miller saddles No. 3 Try to Capture who is also stretching out. He has high early speed and is the likely favorite who may wire the field if he faces little pressure early.

No. 9 Da Kine, a lightly raced 5-year-old, has run at the mile distance twice and has picked up a check in each of those starts, both are recent runs since being off since July of last year. He is a strong contender here.

Steve Knapp has a decent record with first time at a route starters, sends out the third of the stretch out runners in No. 7 Storm the Gate, who exits the same race as Straus’s Place. His effort was very poor in his debut, but he has little to beat here and may prefer the mile distance in spite of his breeding.  He is 30-1.

The superfecta is rounded out with No. 4 Funkenstein, who looks stronger on dirt than turf and may be the fastest here, especially if the runners stretching out do not improve with the added distance.

The play

10 cent Superfecta Key 5 with 3, 4, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 5

State bred maiden fillies and mares are matched up going a mile on the turf.  This lightly raced field of nine turf runners includes five who are going a route of ground for the first time. Four come out of the same dash at Santa Anita in October. Seven of the nine runners look like they could win here. I anticipate a fast pace.

The first runner from the Santa Anita dash that merits respect is the Doug O’Neill-trained No. 8 Piazzetta, who should be charging late and has a chance to upset here. At 10-1 she is your key horse.

No. 6 Kitten’s Kid, trained by Peter Miller, is another who comes from that Santa Anita dash and looks the fastest here on a stretch out. She is the most likely to win and has to be included. 

No. 7 Issa Court was not far behind Kitten’s Kid, and is also a strong first time router here.

No. 3 Chao Mar comes out of the same Santa Anita event, and is the only runner from that race who actually has run a mile on the turf prior to that. She had an excuse in that mile try, and figures to be one of the deep closers here. Include her at 15-1. 

No. 9 Finnley’s Kitten is the final runner to round out the superfecta. She has failed at a mile twice but has the running style to be very tough as a proven router. I do not anticipate a win but a strong top four chance here.

The play

10 cent Superfecta Key 8 with 3, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The final race at Del Mar is a one mile turf event for claiming horses who have never won two races. Ten runners and ten wins, with several of the runners matching up against each other in prior starts. Runners who are lightly raced and not proven losers are favorable here.

Neil Drysdale sends out No. 9 Cosmo who at 6-1 looks like an overlay with a strong chance to win. One of the more lightly raced entrants, he was last seen in a sprint on Tapeta at Golden Gate, and that race may have tightened him up for this mile event. Prior to that he ran an uneventful sixth beaten less than three lengths in a turf marathon. He is your key horse.

No. 1 Muay Thai is underrated here and has improved under John Sadler despite his last two out of the money finishes. He ran well in Europe, and is one of only two 3-year-olds in the field. He is an improving younger horse who merits upside possibilities. Include him at 10-1.

No. 3 Ottawa Fire, trained by Phil D’Amato, looks the best here, the likely betting favorite with a strong chance to win, a must include at a short price.

No. 4 Ox Bridge has high early speed, and is five for seven in the money on turf. He could wire the field and should be bet down from his 5-1 morning line.

The superfecta is closed out with No. 7 Rocks and Salt, who is improving, and will have to pass horses in the stretch, which he should be able to do at an attractive 10-1.

The play

10 cent superfecta Key 9 with 1, 3, 4 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.