5 runners to fade in the 2025 Breeders' Cup

The 2025 Breeders' Cup is filled with full, competitive fields in most of the 14 races. With that said, it is almost a guarantee that the majority of races will feature at least one top-three finisher at double-digit odds. If a horse at high odds sneaks into the exotics, it means that at least one of the top choices in that respective race will finish off the board.

Below I highlight five horses who I am looking to bet against who are 6-1 or shorter on the morning line. These runners will fail to outun their odds, opening the door for other runners who offer better value. 

Tamara, 7-2, Filly & Mare Sprint. Richard Mandella always has been high on this daughter of Beholder, and his choice to run Kopion against males has led many to believe that he thinks this filly is good enough to capture this race. Mandella might believe that to be true, but her odds are based purely on potential rather than form. Since November 2023, she has won one Grade 3 race. Hope Road, who is a higher price on the morning line, has won three stakesduring that timeframe, including a Grade 1.

Tamara looked like a star capturing her first two races as a 2-year-old, but then she put forth a dud at 4-5 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was laid off for a year and could not win an allowance race in her comeback. Yes, that race was off a layoff, but she was 2-5 and the horse who defeated her, Sandy Bottom, was returning from a similar layoff. Tamara was laid off for 11 more months before returning to win the five-horse Chillingworth Stakes (G3) last month. That was a dreadful field, and though it was nice to see her win, she still has not defeated anything of consequence in two years. This is much too low of a price to take on a horse with this kind of pattern. 

Shisospicy, 6-1, Turf Sprint. This filly is very talented, but this is an extremely tough spot. She is a 3-year-old filly asked to face not just older runners for the first time, but older males. Additionally she is a front runner in a race filled with speed. The daughter of Mitole was not up for the challenge of shipping to Ascot when she ran 15th in June, and I do not see her having the foundation to be competitive against a similar class of runners at this point in her career.

Nitrogen, 4-1, Distaff. This classy filly is a multiple stakes winner on both turf and dirt and never has been worse than third in 11 lifetime starts. Because of this impressive resume, she will be a firm second choice in this race behind Seismic Beauty. As good as she is, there are a couple of potential concerns. In my opinion, Seismic Beauty is the easiest single of the entire Breeders' Cup, which makes the proposition of winning more challenging than other second choices who face more vulnerable favorites. The second problem is the competition she has been facing.

Good Cheer was favored in the Alabama Stakes (G1), but Good Cheer's races before and after the Alabama, in the Acorn Stakes (G1) and Cotillion Stakes (G1), were very poor. Nitrogen defeated Torpedo Anna in the Spinster (G1), but Torpedo Anna did not show up that day, leading to her retirement. Other than those two, Nitrogen really has not beaten much on the dirt and could not get by Gin Gin in her first race against older foes while hanging the whole stretch in the Spinster. I would rather play a proven older runner like Dorth Vader or a quickly improving 3-year-old such as Clicquot rather than Nitrogen to finish underneath Seismic Beauty. 

Rhetorical, 5-1, Mile. This New York-bred is a neat story, but the gelding would be surprising as he takes on some of the best milers in the world. Two starts ago he was capturing his first stakes win in a New York-bred stakes. He would have been 20-1 or more off of that form in this race. All off a sudden he is just 5-1 on the morning line after jumping up to win the Turf Mile (G1) at Keeneland. He sat a great trip that day and finished just a little over a length ahead off the fourth-place finisher, indicating that this might not have been the strongest prep. That fourth-place finisher, Jonquil, had a rough trip in the Turf Mile and had much stronger credentials coming into the race as a Group 2 winner in Europe. He is now double the price of Rhetorical in this race. Considering you can get 6-1 on Sahlan, a Group 1 winner in France, and 6-1 on The Lion In Winter, a multiple Group 1 placed runner in Europe, 5-1 seems too short on Rhetorical.

Gezora, 7-2, Filly & Mare Turf. I was surprised to see this French import tabbed as the favorite in this race. She is a very nice filly, but there are others in this race at better prices whom I prefer. See The Fire, Cinderella's Dream and Diamond Rain are the three Europeans I will play, and She Feels Pretty is certainly no slouch either.

Cinderella's Dream and Diamond Rain have proven they can handle North American racing and a firm turf course for Charlie Appleby while still possessing top European class. Speaking of class, See The Fire has faced just about every top horse in Europe in the last year and has consistently held her own against star males and females. Gezora faltered in her only start against males in the Arc (G1) last out. That is a tough assignment and the turf course was soft, but it would have been nice to see her run a little better. Prior to that she was second in a Group 1 against older and captured a Group 1 against 3-year-olds. She has yet to run on a left-handed course or on firm turf, and others entice more at better prices.