5 reasons Derby winner Justify can take the Triple Crown

Having dealt with a heel bruise since winning the Kentucky Derby, Justify is scheduled to return to the track Thursday morning at Churchill Downs, remaining on schedule for a start in the 2018 Preakness Stakes.

Connections aren’t ready to talk Triple Crown — one race at a time, they say — but there’s reason to believe this colt can sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Here are five reasons why:

1. It all starts with trainer Bob Baffert. The Hall of Fame trainer successfully mapped out American Pharoah’s Triple Crown campaign in 2015 and has set Justify on a similar course this year, leaving him at Churchill between the first and second legs before the trip to Pimlico. Baffert sits just one Triple Crown race win behind the all-time leader, D. Wayne Lukas, and is poised to tie him later this month.

2. Is the Preakness a gimme? Most of Justify’s top competition from the Kentucky Derby will wait until at least the June 9 Belmont to run back, with the exception Derby runner-up Good Magic, who’s under consideration but not confirmed for the race. To add, Baffert has never lost a Preakness with a Kentucky Derby winner.

3. It might have hurt Justify’s Kentucky Derby chances that he went into the first Saturday in May lightly raced. But he passed arguably the toughest test at Churchill Downs. Now that so-called lack of foundation can turn into a positive with three starts in five weeks possible. Keep in mind American Pharoah was fresh as well, taking time to heal an injury the winter before his 2015 campaign.

4. First, Pimlico does not in fact have those oft-discussed “tighter turns” that could theoretically slow a big horse like Justify. And despite the Belmont Stakes’ 1 1/2-mile distance, it’s rare a closer wins the third Triple Crown leg. Justify’s style, to sit near or on the lead and use his speed to run the rest off their collective feet, makes him the right type of runner to complete the sweep.

5. OK, perhaps this one’s a reach. But historically, Triple Crowns have come in bunches. Three horses accomplished the feat in the 1930s; four did it in the 1940s; and Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978) preceded the lengthy drought leading up to American Pharoah’s 37-year streak breaker. There were no Triple Crown winners in the 1950s, 60s, 80s, 90s or early 2000s.

There are obviously a number of reasons Justify won’t be the next American Pharoah, namely because of a deep field that could await him at Belmont Park. For now, though, he looks to have a live chance at it.