5 questions key to the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic

By Jonathan Lintner

The 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar is likely to end the Horse of the Year debate and, at the same time, settle the score between top picks Gun Runner and Arrogate.

• Is Arrogate really back?

The narrative behind the Big A has shifted drastically since he put in a loping workout Oct. 10 and, later that day, it was announced the Classic would be his final race before going to stud. But in subsequent drills, the champ looked his former self, getting his head down and into the bridle, lengthening his stride and earning the type of praise he did heading into last year’s race against California Chrome. Off consecutive defeats, the horse’s mentality going into the Classic remains an unknown.

• Can Gun Runner get the distance?

A year and a half after the 2015 Kentucky Derby, we’re still asking of Gun Runner the same question: Is he a mile-and-a-quarter horse? His past performances say no, with defeats in the Derby, Travers and Dubai World Cup. But his favoritism has come not just because he enters off three straight Grade 1 wins, but rather how Gun Runner took them: by a combined 22 1/2 lengths.

• What about the surface?

Arrogate is 0-for-2 at Del Mar with defeats there in his last two starts, while running at the San Diego track seemingly boosts co-third choice Collected, who won the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time out. All indications, however, are that Del Mar’s track is “tighter” than in the summer meet and behaving more like the Santa Anita track we know Arrogate likes. The same crew maintains the dirt at Del Mar and Santa Anita.

• Where is West Coast’s peak?

Trainer Bob Baffert has won three straight Breeders’ Cup Classics, all with 3-year-olds (Bayern in 2014, American Pharaoh in 2015 and Arrogate in 2016). Only one contender — West Coast — could extend the streak. While the colt didn’t try the Triple Crown trail, he enters off wins in two of the other most prestigious races for his age group, the Travers Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby.

• How important is this stat?

A horse that ran in the Dubai World Cup has never in the same year gone on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The sample size isn’t huge by any means -- the Dubai World Cup has only existed since 1996 -- but it speaks to the toll it takes on horses traveling across the world in late March and still competing in early November. So, in this regard, that's a knock on Arrogate and Gun Runner, and reason why we could see an upset at Del Mar.