5 keys to identifying the 2019 Belmont Stakes winner

Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system has turned its attention to the June 8 Belmont Stakes and, as such, the approach changes when it comes to making money on the Triple Crown’s third leg.

Super Screener author Mike Shutty lists 22 criteria to help identify win and in-the-money contenders based on data going back to Thunder Gulch’s victory in the 1995 running. Shutty uses Brisnet Pace and Speed Ratings given they provide reliable benchmarks.

With Tacitus and War of Will the anticipated Top 2 betting choices, and then a case to be made for any of the others to hit the board at Belmont Park, here are five keys to finding the winner:

1) A start in the Kentucky Derby is a strong positive indicator. Give special credit to a horse who ran in the Derby, experienced some trip trouble and skipped the Preakness. That means you, Spinoff.

2) Must show a Brisnet Speed Rating of 97-plus in at least one of the horse’s two most recent races and an E2 of 90-plus. Notably, War of Will has never run a 97, but Tacitus is a fit having won the Wood Memorial (G2) two back with a speed rating of 103 and E2 of 100. 

3) Favor horses with three to five races off a 45-plus day layoff heading into the Belmont. Six-plus races off the layoff is a major knock, and a top last out is even worse. That’s a negative Everfast, the surprising Preakness runner-up who has raced six times this season. 

4) At least one of the prior two races must show a difference of no more than 10 points when looking across at E2, LP and Brisnet Speed Rating figures. This seems to discount two deep closers in the race, Master Fencer and Sir Winston.

5) Look for a move forward in the Brisnet Speed Rating between the two races run prior to the Belmont if the horse did not run in the Derby or Preakness. That would bode well for Intrepid Heart, who despite a defeat in the Peter Pan (G3) has continued posting rising numbers.

The full edition of the Super Screener is available today with all of Shutty's conclusions. And if you’re not familiar with terms like E2 or LP, that information's all included in Brisnet’s free Belmont Stakes past performances.

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