Breeders' Cup: 5 intriguing long shots to spice up your wagers
When Caravel crossed the finish line first in the 2022 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, it marked the fourth year in a row that the Breeders' Cup produced a winner at 40-1 or higher. She joined Marche Lorraine in 2021, Order of Australia in 2020 and Storm the Court in 2019.
Strong value plays are available routinely during the Breeders' Cup, whether it is on the win end or to round out exotic wagers. With 11 races of 11 horses or more on tap in this year's Breeders' Cup, there are sure to be at least a few live long shots who have the potential to be day makers.
Below I analyze five horses that could play the role of spoiler this year. They will outrun their odds and are good horses to consider in your wagers to spice up exacta, trifecta or superfecta payoffs.
1) Givemethebeatboys, 15-1, Juvenile Turf Sprint. When it comes to five-furlong turf sprints, getting the right trip is often more important than being the best horse. As a presser, this colt should get the perfect trip with four speed runners lined up to his inside. He should sit just outside of a speed duel while getting the first jump on the closers. He has shown plenty of class while consistently running head and head with the best juvenile sprinters in Europe for five furlongs before tiring a bit in the sixth furlong. That will not be a problem in this shorter event.
2) Tok Tok, 20-1, Juvenile Turf. This colt needs to take a step forward on the speed-figure scale to compete, but there are reasons to believe he is capable of doing just that. He has shown the ability to improve in every race, and a similar jump is expected in just his fourth career start. He had a horrible trip in the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes last time while blocked for much of the stretch. Graham Motion also adds blinkers, a move that he is successful with 33 percent of the time. The blinkers should help him be more involved in the pace early, increasing his focus and decreasing his chances of finding trouble once more.
3) More Than Looks, 15-1, Mile. This rapidly improving 3-year-old should not be taken lightly. He adores the mile distance and has a ferocious late kick. He has won three of his last four starts, with his only loss coming on a course he might not have cared for over the inner turf at Saratoga. With plenty of expected pace to run at, he will be flying late.
4) Lindy, 12-1, Filly & Mare Turf. Like More Than Looks, this filly has a powerful turn of foot. She chased the talented Blue Rose Cen in France and has done nothing wrong in two starts in America. She continues to get better and should appreciate the extended trip after almost running down Mawj at 1 1/8 miles last time out.
5) Onesto, 8-1, Turf. The French import catches a very tough field, but he is as good as any when at his best. After showing strong form as a 3-year-old, his form is better than it looks this year at age 4. He started the year with a mile prep and a rough trip before he showed his true ability when unleashing a furious rally to run third in the 2023 Arc de Triomphe (G1). He has a style that suits American racing perfectly, and the 128 Timeform figure he earned last out is only one point behind Mostahdaf and four points ahead of Auguste Rodin’s best.