5 value plays from Europe in Breeders' Cup 2025

Handicapping turf races during any Breeders' Cup starts and often ends with the European contingent. This year's group of invaders looks dangerous as always. True Love, Gstaad, Precise, Minnie Hauk, Notable Speech and Gezora are favored in their races, meaning that European invaders are favored in six of the seven turf races.

These runners, as well as Rebel's Romance, are among the headliners this week at Del Mar. As a fan, I can not wait to watch many of these stars run. But as a gambler, there are other foreign contenders who are flying under the radar and whom I am more excited to bet. Below I take a closer look at five European shippers listed at 5-1 or higher on the morning line who will outrun their odds in the 2025 Breeders' Cup.

Havana Anna, 6-1, Juvenile Turf Sprint. Aidan O'Brien trains the favored True Love in this race, but his son, Donnacha O'Brien, might be able to turn the tables on his father with Havana Anna. True Love narrowly defeated Havana Anna last out in a Group 1 affair at Newmarket in a race where Havana Anna battled to the wire. That was at six furlongs, and this filly should appreciate shortening to five furlongs, a distance at which she is a nose away from being undefeated at in three starts. She is tactical, handles firm ground, has experience over a left-handed track and has improved her Timeform figure in every start. Havana Anna looked a bit handier than the bulky True Love and might be better suited to Del Mar's layout.

North Coast, 30-1, Juvenile Turf. The son upstaging his father theme could continue here as Aidan O'Brien's other son, Joseph O'Brien, conditions this live long shot against Aidan's favored Gstaad. I had to triple check this runner's odds when I saw 30-1. I was strongly considering fellow European Humidity in this race, but with him not entered, the door opens wider for this colt. Unlike Gstaad, he has experience running a mile when finishing second in July. He also owns a powerhouse win over a left-handed track. He has the speed to sit a handy trip from the six hole, and Gstaad has been stranded in post 14. He is being ignored after a disappointing effort last time out in a Group 1. I think the yielding turf course had more to do with that poor effort than the class hike. This colt is too good of a value to leave out of exotic wagers.

Goliath, 8-1, Turf. Taking on Minnie Hauk and Rebel's Romance is no small task, but if any horse can upset both of the top choices in the Breeders' Cup Turf, it likely will be this gelding. At 8-1, he is a much better value than his talented rivals because he is just as good on his best day. His win in last July's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) was the best race anyone in this field ever has run. He defeated Rebel's Romance by over five lengths that day and beat future 2024 Arc winner Bluestocking. He was not quite as sharp earlier this year but seems to be rounding back to his best form after capturing a Group 1 in Germany in his last start as a prep for this race. His connections mean business, spending $200,000 to supplement him into this race, and he has the tactical speed to get the jump on many of his main rivals. If Minnie Hauk is a bit short after her grueling Arc effort, this gelding could pull off the mild upset.

Sahlan, 6-1, Mile. This is a rapidly improving France-based 3-year-old who is progressing at just the right time. He loves a mile and firm turf, and he comes into the race with good spacing between races, having last run on Sept. 7. One of his main rivals, The Lion In Winter, just ran Oct. 18 and might not have a full tank. Sahlan defeated The Lion In Winter in a Group 1 in September, as well as the talented Rosallion. His last Timeform rating puts hims squarely in the ballpark of likely favorite Notable Speech. And considering his figure has improved by 10 points in each of his last two starts, there could be more room to grow.

See The Fire, 5-1, Filly & Mare Turf. This filly drew wide in post 14, but at this long distance, post position is not as important as many would think. She will have an opportunity to take back, get over and still make a big late run. She has faced almost all of Europe’s best horses over the last 18 months, including Calandagan, Ombudsman, Delacroix, Porta Fortuna, Opera Singer, Ramatuelle, City of Troy and Inspiral. Half of that list of superstars are males, meaning she truly has fought every challenge. She has been very competitive against this Group 1 competition, and her lone win came when she faced Group 2 fillies and mares and she defeated them by a whopping 12 lengths. That race was on firm turf over a track with left-handed turns, so this layout should be right up her alley. It is rare to say a filly is dropping in class in the Breeders' Cup, but that is exactly what she is doing in this spot.