5 Kentucky Derby 2019 horses to bet on a sloppy track
According to National Weather Service records, 47% of the past 144 Kentucky Derby days have experienced rain at some point. Already, that number is set to increase with some early drizzles Saturday at Churchill Downs.
More wet weather is on its way, prompting the question: Which 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders’ chances move up in the slop?
There are at least three worthwhile measures for wet track performance:
1. The Tomlinson Ratings provided on Daily Racing Form past performances. According to DRF, these are useful for horses trying mud or slop for the first time.
2. Brisnet past performances’ pedigree-based numbers that list how the sire and dam sire's progeny have run on wet tracks.
3. And of course, prior experience, which can be limited given these 3-year-olds have for the most part only run a few races.
That said, here are five horses meriting higher consideration if Saturday’s rainy forecast proves correct.
His 469 Tomlinson Rating is highest of any Derby runner and well above the 320 threshold for which DRF says indicates a horse should move up. Additionally, his running style — preferring to be closer to the pace — should help the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) winner avoid much of the kickback. As with last year when Justify won the wettest Derby on record, perhaps the cleanest horse coming back may be the one to play.
His Tomlinson Rating of 461 is second-best among the field of 19. While trainer Bob Baffert doesn’t work and often doesn’t train his horses when it rains at Santa Anita Park, that doesn’t mean Game Winner isn’t capable in the slop. He tends to take wide trips and drew an outside post position. Perhaps there’s a positive in that given he’ll avoid some kickback as a stalker. According to Brisnet, his sire (21%) and dam’s sire (19%) show strong numbers for their progeny on wet tracks.
Another with a high Tomlinson number, more importantly, he has recent proof of handling slop. Despite starting on the inner, slower part of the Oaklawn Park main track, he found room to run and wound up just a length back of Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby (G1). We know Omaha Beach is exceedingly quick on that sort of surface given he broke his maiden by nine lengths on a wet Santa Anita card.
As with Vekoma, he’ll be looking to factor in the pace, and Haikal’s scratch moved him out of the dreaded No. 1 post position. Going back to last season, War of Will broke his maiden when runner over a drying Churchill Downs track still rated sloppy. Since then, the former turf runner has remained a dirt horse. It’s also worth noting that trainer Mark Casse’s Fair Grounds-based team didn’t hesitate to train him and work him over a wet track all winter.
Among his four career races is a narrow, second-out maiden win going a mile at Aqueduct over a track rated “good.” He also shows a nice Tomlinson Rating, and his dam, the champion Close Hatches, won the 2014 Personal Ensign (G1) over a muddy track. As another handicapping angle to consider: Tacitus did not run on Lasix at age 2 but has won back-to-back Grade 2 preps this season with the medication.
Others to think about? Maximum Security, Master Fencer and Spinoff own wins over wet tracks, while Plus Que Parfait submitted one of his best career efforts to be a closing second in Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) in the slop.