4 superfecta keys Saturday at Keeneland and Oaklawn
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Keeneland provides two opportunities on dirt and one on turf and Oaklawn provides one on dirt.
At Keeneland
Race 4
This mile and one sixteenth maiden claimer on the dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 all age three or four. Trainer Philip Sims has two entrants. Runners exit races from Fairgrounds, Turfway, Mahoning Valley, Gulfstream, Sam Houston and Ellis Park. Last outs are a mix of three on turf and four on synthetic and dirt respectively. Three runners have new trainers and another is off a layoff, with one of the new trainer runners stretching out on dirt for the first time. The field has combined for an overall in the money rate of about one in three starts with a slightly lower rate at the distance. There is almost no speed with runners having combined for a lead at the second call only one time in fifty starts. The pace should be slow which provides an advantage to front runners and close to the pace types. This is a wide open event since the runners are lightly raced, there a few new trainers, a couple of first time dirt routers, and an abundance of surface switches.
No. 2 Bayou Wind has run similarly on synthetic and dirt in her last four routes and is going to be mid pack although she was relatively close in her last start in a big field of 12 on synthetic which tends to favor closers where she faded badly. She is slightly slower than the better runners in this field and at 8-1 she looks like a solid play as your key runner to be in the mix down the stretch at reasonable odds.
No. 3 Lantern’s Candy is making her first start for Tim Glyshaw who has a solid record in a small sample with new runners and she also ran solidly in her first dirt start last out at Mahoning Valley running on pace throughout finishing second at one mile. She looks like she will be forwardly placed and grind her way to a solid finish especially with the added distance if she runs close to that effort at odds of 20-1.
No. 10 Forever Home has run well in turf routes in her last three of four starts with two seconds and a third at two different tracks. Prior to those runs she was pressing the pace in a mile and one eighth dirt route at Churchill fading badly. That run was in June of last year after four consecutive dirt sprints. She would be competitive her off those dirt sprints combined with her forward placement in that race where the winner won by ten open lengths. Her inclusion is attractive at odds of 15-1.
No. 1 Classy Miss is trying a dirt route for the first time after two consecutive second places finishes running close to the pace in turf events at Fairgrounds with one run at a mile and the other at today’s distance. Her dirt sprints and running style suggest she will be right there at the end as the probable second choice.
No. 5 Salit trained by Ken McPeek is the likely favorite who should come from far out of it to be part of the superfecta, but given the way the race looks in terms of speed and forward placement being an advantage, she will be an underlay even though fastest on paper.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 1, 3, 5 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 5
A field of nine fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up has been entered in this mile event on the turf including seven 4-year-old fillies and two 5-year-old mares. Runners exit races from Keeneland, Turfway, Woodbine, Belmont, Gulfstream and a foreign runner last out at Newmarket. The Keeneland runner was last out on dirt, the Turfway and Woodbine runners exit synthetic races, and the Belmont, Gulfstream and Newmarket runners exit turf events. Four runners are coming in off layoffs including the Newmarket runner and three have new trainers. The field has combined for an in the money rate of four in 10 starts overall and nearly two of every three starts at the distance. There is one speed runner accounting for two thirds of the leads at the second call for races that show. Overall there is little speed except for that runner. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to runners near the lead.
No. 2 Lubna fits the profile of an excellent superfecta player. She has been in the money three of 11 starts but more importantly she has four fourth place finishes added to the mix. This runner has raced consistently in both Europe and the U.S. on both synthetic and turf, and her running style should have her forwardly placed and close to the lead. At 12-1 she is your key runner.
Mark Casse sends out No. 7 Commanders Palace who has raced at five different venues in seven lifetime starts placing twice in those outings both at today’s distance. Of note, one placing was an early 2021 effort against No. 5 Nevisian Sun a strong player here. This filly has some tactical speed and the second most second call leads in this field which should be an advantage as far as she can go. She is 10-1.
No. 6 Designer Ready is now in the Tom Drury Jr. barn a trainer who has a very strong record with new runners along with layoff runners. She has two placings in her first two starts and has shown little in three subsequent starts. I expect improvement as a result of the new trainer at odds of 12-1.
No. 3 Seasons has changed trainers and is now in the Josie Carroll barn after racing at four different tracks in her six lifetime starts with five in the money finishes. She worked well recently on the Keeneland dirt and is off a layoff where she has demonstrated success in the past. This runner is the likely second betting choice.
Trainer Chad Brown sends out the probable favorite No. 5 Nevisian Sun who unlike most Brown runners has a forwardly placed running style. When you combine that with the ability of his runners to have something in reserve, she merits extra consideration further amplified by the fact that she has been in the money all her starts at this distance on turf. She will be difficult to beat.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 3, 5, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
This seven furlong optional claimer on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 11 runners including one entry for a total of 10 betting interests including seven colts and four geldings. Runners exit races from Turfway, Fairgrounds, Gulfstream, Tampa Bay, Keeneland and Oaklawn with all Turfway runners last racing on synthetic and all others last racing on dirt. One runner is coming in off a layoff. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two of every three starts overall and three of every four at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed, with runners having the lead at the second call about one in seven tries. I anticipate a moderate pace, with the advantage to those on or near the lead.
Trainer Chris Davis sends out No. 4 Tough to Tame who has faced the toughest competition in the field and has been in the money all of his starts except for a last place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. His comeback race was a very balanced second place finish at five and one half furlongs, which should set him up very nicely for a strong effort at seven furlongs. At 4-1 he is your key runner.
No. 7 Britain’s Kitten has been in the money all four of his tries including turf and dirt routes and his one victory is a dirt sprint at five and one half furlongs. He clearly has a grinding running style and should be mid pack throughout. If the pace is faster than anticipated he might be a huge stretch factor at odds of 20-1.
The entry of No. 1 Great Escape and No. 1a Momentous is formidable and either runner will be a factor here. No. 1 Great Escape has a win at this distance and is three of four on the dirt, with a pace pressing style. No. 1a Momentous has one very solid win at six furlongs on debut and may be on the lead or pressing and similarly to his stablemate looks like he has a balanced style. This entry should take a lot of money.
No. 9 B Sudd has won at this distance and is in the money his three starts all sprints. He is slightly slower than the fastest runners in this field, but as 3-year-olds, improvement can be swift and he may be one of the post time favorites.
No. 3 Unikee has run first and third in two starts at six furlongs and has a pace pressing balanced running style. He looks as fast as anyone and the pace at seven furlongs will allow him to relax and be a huge factor in the stretch the final furlong. He could be the post time favorite.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 3, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Oaklawn
Race 10
A field of 10 has been assembled for this mile and one sixteenth optional claimer on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up all colts and geldings ranging in age from four to nine. The entire field exits dirt events at Oaklawn with the exception of one lone starter exiting a turf event at Monmouth off a long layoff. Three runners have new trainers and two runners are trained by Steve Asmussen. The field has combined for an in the money rate of nearly 50 percent overall and a slightly higher rate at the distance. Runners have had the lead at the second call about one in ten starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed horses and those just off the pace.
No. 7 V.I.P. Who is entered off the claim for trainer Karl Broberg who has a solid off the claim record. This runner has been in the money 12 of 15 lifetime starts including all six of his runs at this distance. He is a pressing style runner who should be just off the lead and at 8-1 is your key horse.
No. 4 Calibrate, similar to No. 7 V.I.P. Who is entered off the claim for his new trainer Coty Rosin. His running style is somewhat like a plodder, but if he breaks well and shows some forward placement early like he did in his 3-year-old season he could be a stretch factor. His record shows five top four finishes in his last nine tries, which make him a superfecta factor at odds of 10-1.
No. 5 Flatout Winner is entered after contesting a dirt marathon which was a very poor effort. He has a low percentage trainer but the right running style to be a factor here. His record at the distance is a first and second in three starts and he does pass horses. Similar to No. 4 Calibrate, a good break and forward placement could make him an attractive superfecta player at odds of 15-1.
No. 3 Eastside Cool one of the runners trained by Steve Asmussen should be on or near the lead and looks as fast as anyone with four in the money finishes out of six starts at this distance. He has finished first or second his last three starts which were at today’s distance and he is the probable post time favorite.
Bret Calhoun enters No. 9 Go West the runner with the fewest starts in the field. He has been in the top four his last six starts after falling short in his debut, has the most upside potential, and is making his fourth start as a 4-year-old. He should vie for favoritism with No. 3 Eastside Cool.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 3, 4, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.