4 superfecta keys Saturday at Churchill Downs

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed, making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available.

But if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize that the favorites tend to be overbet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result. 

This is why a 10-cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.  

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12 

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• A field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool who would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly

Please note that Churchill Downs allows superfectas at a $1 minimum on Oaks and Derby days. As a result, the superfectas recommended will require a larger bankroll to play as a result of these minimums.

The Saturday card at Churchill provides four opportunities on turf and dirt.

Race 2

This 6 1/2-furlong optional claimer for 3-year-olds contested on the dirt has attracted 10 colts and geldings with all exiting dirt events except for two runners exiting synthetic and turf races respectively. Runners exit dirt events at Keeneland, Oaklawn and Aqueduct, with the turf runner exiting a race at Keeneland and the synthetic runner last out at Turfway. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 70 percent overall and is one of two at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed with runners having combined for a lead at the second call about one in four starts. There should be a fast pace and consistent with events at this distance, the last half a furlong will be advantageous to off pace runners since the pace is often the same at the half-mile mark of a six-furlong race and horses often tire late.

No. 8 Osbourne trained by Ron Moquett has a pressing running style and has run balanced in all his tries except the Southwest Stakes (G3) where he faded in a dirt route. He looks like a middle distance runner and this is supported by his four in the money finishes in four tries at distances between six furlongs and a mile. This runner looks like an overlay and at 8-1 and is your key horse.

No. 9 Micky From Wexford has the fewest starts in the field and both of those efforts were in the money finishes at Keeneland including his maiden breaking score on debut. His running style is similar to No. 8 Osbourne and he clearly should enjoy the additional one half furlong at odds of 15-1.

George Weaver ships in No. 7 Cathedral Beach who just broke his maiden and has three top four finishes in three dirt sprints. This will be only his fifth start for this runner who has tactical speed and in his lone poor performance at a mile he had some trouble at the start. With a reasonable amount of upside potential, he is worth including at odds of 10-1 to be part of the superfecta.

Trainer Rodophe Brisset sends out one of the probable favorites in No. 6 Great Escape, who has run three excellent races from six furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in five starts. His other two starts were failures in graded stakes. He looks like a middle-distance runner and a grinder who will be right there at the end.

No. 4 Surfer Dude has been in the money six of eight starts all dirt and has some tactical but not need to lead type speed. He comes out of the same race as No. 8 Osbourne, where he bested that rival by a length at seven furlongs in what may be his best effort to date and he figures to be in contention throughout as one of the probable favorites.

The play: $1.00 superfecta, key 8 with 4, 6, 7 and 9.

Total wager: $96.00.

Race 6

A full field of 12 is entered in The Knicks Go Overnight Stakes, a one-mile dirt stake for runners who have not won a graded event in 2021-2022. Runners exit exclusively dirt races from Oaklawn, Keeneland, Fairgrounds and Delta and two of those runners are stretching out to a route of ground on dirt for the first time. The field has combined to be in the money over 50 percent of the time overall and nearly 70 percent at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call about one in 10 starts for races that show. The presence of two runners stretching out should contribute to a relatively fast pace, with mid pack runners having an advantage.

No. 11 Necker Island is a grinding type of runner who has been in the money half his starts and four out of seven at this distance. He runs the same race virtually every time and is not as fast as the better runners in the field, has limited upside as a 5-year-old, but is good enough to be a superfecta key at odds of 6-1.

Bill Mott saddles No. 7 South Bend a closing type runner who is very similar to No. 11 Necker Island in terms of consistency. He has been in the money just a little under half his starts and does have to have the right pace scenario to be a factor given his closing style, but the anticipated fast pace should be to his advantage in the stretch at odds of 8-1.

No. 10 Major Fed has never contested a mile on the dirt and has had success in longer races with a nine of 14 in the money dirt record. He has a pace pressing style and the shorter distance may suit him given his pace lines that show he has something left in the stretch in most tries. His odds are 10-1.

No. 4 Dream Shake came in second in this event last year to Jackies Warrior and comes off one of his better tries to date after a nearly eight month absence to win an allowance event at Keeneland at six furlongs. His eight prior starts include four graded events where he finished in the top four each try. Similar to last year, he should be right there at the end in his second start as a 4-year-old and will be one of the post-time favorites.

Brad Cox sends out No. 2 Shared Sense, who ships in running at seven tracks in his last 10 starts, hitting the top four in seven of those tries. He is three of four in the money at the distance and figures to be coming from out of it down the stretch as the probable second choice.

The play: $1.00 superfecta, key 11 with 2, 4, 7 and 10.

Total wager: $96.00.

Race 7

The Pat Day Mile (G2) for 3-year-olds, contested at one mile on the dirt, brings together 12 colts and geldings including two trained by Todd Pletcher and an additional runner racing off a layoff. Runners exit exclusively dirt races from Keeneland, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Belmont and Fairgrounds. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than 50 percent overall and one in three starts at the distance, with only six races in the at the distance sample. There is a solid amount of speed in the race, with runners having the lead at the second call about one in five starts. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to off pace runners.

No. 3 Pappacap has run fourth or better in seven of eight dirt starts. This is first try at mile and his lone really poor performance was at a mile and an eighth. He has pace pressing early speed, and after running longer than today’s distance his tactical style should ensure he will be in the thick of it throughout at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Bret Calhoun sends out No. 6 Tejano Twist, who is trying a mile for the first time. He has a closing style and he ran very poorly last out at seven furlongs in his second start as a 3-year-old. Prior to that outing, his record was a perfect in terms of top four finishes in all 10 starts and if the pace comes up fast, he will be a force in the stretch at odds of 10-1.

One of the Todd Pletcher runners is No. 1 Major General, who has two wins in four tries and his last out was a second in the Lexington (G3) to Derby entrant Tawny Port. His lone off-the-board run was a comeback race at Tampa Bay in his first start in nearly six months, where he was out of it from the start. He looks to have solid upside potential as part of the superfecta at odds of 9-2.

No. 10 Doppelganger is making his second start for trainer Tim Yakteen, and he has four top four finishes in four tries. His last effort in the Arkansas Derby was his poorest to date, finishing a well beaten fourth. The cutback to a mile should help, and he looks like an overlay at 6-1.

Chad Brown sends out No. 5 Jack Christopher, who is making his first start since October of last year after reeling off two straight victories including the Champagne (G1) at a mile on the dirt. Expect improvement in this first try as a 3-year-old with likely favoritism at post time.

The play: $1.00 superfecta, key 3 with 1, 5, 6 and 10.

Total wager: $96.00.

Race 11

The Turf Classic Stakes (G1) for 4-year-olds and up is contested at 1 1/8 miles on the turf with a field of 10 entered in this year’s edition. All runners exit turf events from either Keeneland, Del Mar or Fairgrounds with four coming in off layoffs. Trainer Chad Brown has three entries. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two of every three starts, with a similar rate at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners having the lead at the second call about one in seven starts for races that show. I anticipate a slow to moderate pace, with forwardly placed runners having an advantage.

No. 1 Ivar was last seen finishing third in the Breeder’s Cup Mile (G1) on the Del Mar turf course. This is only his 12th start in this his 6-year-old season. He has been in the top four nine of 11 lifetime start and looks the strongest here for trainer Paulo Lobo at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.

Trainer Ian Wilkes sends out No. 5 Mira Mission, who looks underrated here with nine top four finishes in 11 lifetime starts including five wins. He is always coming at you and has improved substantially in this his 4-year-old season. His odds are 10-1.

Victoria Oliver has a small string of runners, and No. 9 Kentucky Ghost is competitive here with a 10-for-14 turf record and 13 top four finishes in 19 starts overall. His record at the distance is a first and second in three tries, and he is only slightly slower than the best runners in the field. I anticipate him to be in the middle of the field showing late kick at odds of 20-1.

No. 10 Santin has the fewest tries in the field with five lifetime starts all top four finishes. His upside is substantial and his odds are 6-1 in this his fourth start at today’s distance with two second place finishes in three tries.

One of the Chad Brown entries and the one with the most speed in the entire field is No. 4 Tribhuvan, who could be unchallenged and is the likeliest to have the lead early. He is a dangerous runner with a 10 for 16 record on the turf and five wins. His odds are 5-1 as one of the key players.

The play: $1.00 superfecta key 1 with 4, 5, 9 and 10.

Total wager: $96.00.