4 questions about the extended 2020 Kentucky Derby trail

With four months to go until 2020 Kentucky Derby day, it's like January all over again timing-wise leading up to the Sept. 5 race at Churchill Downs. News arrived Tuesday about which races will be included as Derby points preps on the way there, but in this unique season, some questions remain.

How does this look by circuit?

Mike Ziegler, Churchill Downs Inc.’s executive director of racing, said in Tuesday’s announcement that the preps list will “continue to evolve, including date placement, as host tracks firm up their plans.” Here are finalized prep dates along with when the others could run...

•  California: Santa Anita Derby (June 6); Los Alamitos Derby (July 4); Shared Belief Stakes (August TBA)

•  Indiana: Indiana Derby (July TBA)

•  Kentucky: Matt Winn Stakes (May 23); Blue Grass Stakes (July TBA); Ellis Park Derby (August TBA)

•  New Jersey: Haskell Stakes (July 18); Pegasus Stakes (Aug. 15)

What’s up in New York?

Who knows? The New York Racing Association is working with the state to resume racing as days click by. That has led horsemen to speculate about a 1 1/8-mile Belmont Stakes in late June, with the Travers Stakes (G1) shifting to early August.

Other graded races for 3-year-olds -- the Wood Memorial (G2), Peter Pan (G3) and Dwyer (G3) -- may meet different fates. One prominent owner on the Derby trail tells Horse Racing Nation that 2020 may go without a Wood Memorial, while a race such as the Peter Pan or Dwyer could be carded should racing resume by early June as a local Belmont prep. And that’s not to mention Saratoga’s traditional local Travers prep, the Jim Dandy (G2).

NYRA’s senior vice president of racing operations, Martin Panza, has his work cut out for him continuing to manage possibilities as the state hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic looks for a path to reopen. How's this for a guess?

•  New York: Peter Pan (early June TBA); Belmont Stakes (late June TBA); Travers (early August TBA); Jim Dandy (late August, TBA, for 3-year-olds not Derby-bound); Dwyer (Belmont fall meet)

Will conditions have to change?

Two races that ran at a mile last year — Del Mar’s Shared Belief Stakes and the Ellis Park Derby — are among the new preps awarding points on a 50-20-10-5 basis to their top four finishers. Almost certainly, those races will have to be be lengthened for 2020’s renewals.

As for the Shared Belief, that’s Del Mar’s answer to rumors regarding what would fill the void in southern California after the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The Los Alamitos Derby, which offers a purse of $150,000, is a 20-8-4-2 prep that won’t alone get a horse to the Kentucky Derby with a win.

As for Ellis Park, it pays to be a good citizen. The western Kentucky track transferred race dates toward the end of its meet to accommodate Churchill Downs' Derby week postponement. An Ellis Park Derby of this magnitude could help recoup some of those losses with a key race leading to the first Saturday in September.

Who got snubbed?

The Indiana Derby (G3) made the cut, but two other Midwest races for 3-year-olds did not, at least on this initial listing. What both of the following have in common, however, is the distinction of running on a circuit reliant on casino revenues that won’t be back for some time. Will these races happen in 2020?

The Ohio Derby (G3), typically scheduled for June, is in a state where a plan to resume business could be put in place at a racing commission meeting Wednesday. Still, we’ve already seen a precedent at Maryland’s Laurel Park, where the initial condition book doesn’t include stakes.

The West Virginia Derby (G3) typically runs in early August at Mountaineer. In addition to the casino angle, timing works against this race. If Churchill wants to line up the best 3-year-olds only a month later, can you justify giving that many points to a race that’s a cut below other final preps?