4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Pimlico
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Pimlico provides four opportunities on dirt and turf.
At Pimlico
Race 7
The Skipat a six furlong stake on dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including two runners trained by local Maryland based trainer John J. Robb. All runners exit dirt races with last outs at Laurel, Aqueduct, Parx, Oaklawn, Keeneland and Churchill. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than 70 percent overall and at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call at a rate of one in every four starts for races that show. I anticipate a fast pace, with the advantage to runners just off the lead.
No. 8 Cheetara has run seven times at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and one sixteenth at four different tracks since coming to the U.S. from Chile and has finished in the top four in each of these starts. This mare has demonstrated the ability to win at both six panels and the mile and one sixteenth distance while adapting to different track dirt surfaces. She has tractability which should allow her to be off the pace and have something left in reserve as your key runner at odds of 10-1.
Steve Asmussen sends out No. 4 Joy’s Rocket who has eight top four placings in her last nine dirt starts at distances ranging from six furlongs to one mile. Her grinding running style make her a factor throughout and I anticipate her to be near the lead at the end at odds of 10-1.
No. 2 Oxana has never run worse than fourth in her seven dirt starts after failing on the turf on debut. She has done this across four different tracks and has admittedly faced small fields in each of those efforts relative to this field size. This is her second start as a 4-year-old and she has room for improvement at odds of 8-1.
No. 5 Kaylasaurus who runs for very high percentage Pennsylvania based trainer Tim Kreiser is the likeliest runner in the field to make a huge stretch move but she will likely run out of ground with too many runners to pass. Her record at the distance is strong with 14 in the money finishes in 19 tries including 8 wins. She is a must include here.
Trainer Brett Brinkman sends out No. 6 Cilla one of the likely favorites who has run extremely well and has logged some of the fastest efforts in this field when she is on her game. Her three wins and a second in four tries at the distance make her a tough competitor with tactical but not need to lead type speed.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 2, 4, 5 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 9
The Chick Lang (G3) a six furlong stake on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a field of nine colts and geldings including two trained by Steve Asmussen. All runners exit dirt events except for one lone runner who exits a turf event who is also the only entrant coming in off a layoff. Last out tracks include Oaklawn, Tampa Bay, Belmont, Charles Town, Keeneland, Laurel and Monmouth. The field has a combined in the money rate of nearly two in every three starts overall and nine in every ten starts at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed with runners having a lead at the second call over one time in four starts for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with the advantage to runners just off the pace. The fact that these are 3-year-old sprinters could create a situation where speed runners are just so solid early off their rapid improvement as young horses that they never look back.
One of the Steve Asmussen runners is No. 6 Chasing Time running over his head in the Arkansas Derby (G1) route last time out after running creditably in another route stake at Oaklawn. Prior to those efforts he finished in the top four in each of five tries including his maiden breaking score at one mile. He should be coming from off the pace grinding his way to a solid superfecta placing at odds of 12-1 as your key runner.
No. 2 Lightening Larry makes his second start for high percentage Florida based trainer Jorge Delgado. This slightly off the pace sprinter has been off the board only one try in eight career starts and looks like a runner who has enough tactical speed to be in the mix at the end especially if a hotly contested speed dual develops. He is 10-1.
No. 9 Little Vic is dangerous here off a strong effort at Monmouth where he was not on the lead throughout and was able to win in a very fast time for his third first or second place finish in three six furlong efforts. He looks like one of those runners who is simply too fast not to consider at odds of 6-1.
Brett Brinkman ships in No. 5 Old Homestead who appears to be the speed of the speed and is another runner who is difficult to dismiss. He could run the entire field off their feet if unchallenged and is the probable favorite off three consecutive sprint wins where he essentially wired the field including the seven furlong Lafayette Stakes at Keeneland.
The second of the Steve Asmussen trainees is No. 1 Cogburn who looks like he needs the lead but has such a strong balanced running style that he may be able change up his style and be just enough off the pace to be a forwardly placed strong stretch factor holding off closers as far as he can go.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 6 with 1, 2, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60
Race 10
The James W. Murphy a one mile stake on the turf for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 11 colts and geldings. Seven runners exit races at Laurel, including turf and dirt events, and there are four runners with last outs each at Woodbine on synthetic, Del Mar on turf, Gulfstream on turf and Parx on dirt. The Del Mar runner is coming in off a layoff, the Gulfstream runner has a new trainer, and five of the Laurel runners are stretching out for the first time on turf either making their first start on turf or having a prior sprint try on turf. Runners have combined for in the money finishes two of every three starts overall and at the distance, with only three total starts at the distance. The field has also combined for a lead at the second call about one in five starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the presence of so many first time routers. The advantage should favor off pace runners, however, there are so many changes going on in this race with first time routers as the primary change that the race is a wide open event.
No. 7 Riot House trained by high percentage trainer Danny Gargan has four turf starts all top four placings including two wins. He has tractable not need to lead speed and should be a factor throughout and a solid superfecta player at odds of 4-1 as your key horse.
No. 4 Wow Whata Summer is a still a maiden but has five top four finishes in five turf starts along with one poor effort on dirt. He has been beaten by a number of runners in the field, but is a grinder, and I anticipate a nice showing at attractive odds of 15-1 coming from relatively far back.
High percentage trainer Jamie Ness sends out No. 9 Crabs N Beer for his first route try on any surface and second turf start where he finished first coming from far off the pace. He projects to be as fast as the main contenders, is seven of 10 overall in the money, and is a key superfecta player at odds of 12-1.
The likely favorite trained by Brad Cox is No. 5 Ready to Purrform who is making his first 3-year-old appearance after a three race fall campaign which included two mile and one sixteenth turf wins one of them being the Laurel Futurity.
No. 10 Joe had some trouble on debut in a turf sprint and since that time has reeled off four wins and a second in five dirt tries including two stake efforts, one restricted. This runner can close or be near the lead. I anticipate a strong performance as one of the favorites for local trainer Mike Trombetta.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 4, 5, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 11
The Sir Barton Stakes a mile and one sixteenth stake on dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a field of ten colts and geldings including two trained by Rudy Rodriguez. All runners exit dirt events including four last out at Laurel, three from Keeneland, two from Oaklawn and one from Aqueduct with three runners trying a route for the first time. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of nearly two of every three starts overall and a slightly higher rate at the distance. There is little speed in the race, with the field combining for a lead at the second call one in every ten starts. The presence of three horses trying a route of ground for the first time may create a relatively fast pace setting it up for slightly off the pace runners.
No.8 Unikee is one of the runners stretching out for the first time after three sprint tries all in the money finishes. He has tactical speed, could be on the lead, but does not need to be, and should improve with the added distance at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.
No. 2 Goldenize is the second runner trying a route for the first time and his five for five in the money record includes a wire to wire win at six and one half furlongs along with an off pace victory at five and one half furlongs. Those runs combined with his other off pace efforts indicate he may be tractable and that will be a critical factor if the pace is solid. He is 20-1.
Trainer Rodolphe Brisset sends out No. 9 Brooklyn Diamonds who has a first in second in two starts a sprint and route and with the fewest starts in the field has the most unknown potential. His odds are 10-1.
The probable favorite is No. 1 Ethereal Road trained by D. Wayne Lukas. This runner has faced Graded stake competition his last three tries with two top four finishes at this distance and he has finished in the top four all of his four starts at this distance. He is a closer who may not get there but must be included.
California based trainer Doug O’Neill ships in No. 5 B. Dawk the last of the runners trying a route for the first time. He projects to be as fast as anyone in the race, has tactical but not need to lead speed and will attract a lot of money at the windows with three in the money finishes in three dirt sprints.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 1, 2, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.