4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Gulfstream and Santa Anita
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Gulfstream provides three opportunities on dirt and turf and Santa Anita provides one opportunity on turf.
At Gulfstream
Race 10
The Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) contested at one mile on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine male runners ranging in age from four to seven including three runners trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. Seven of the nine runners last raced at Gulfstream with the remaining other two runners last racing at Belmont and Churchill respectively. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three of every five tries overall and three of four at the distance. There are no true deep closers in the field which has combined for a lead at the second call at a rate of one in five times for those races that show. I do not expect anyone to wire the field and runners close to the pace will have an advantage.
No. 9 Diamond Oops is the oldest runner in the field at seven yet has only 24 lifetime starts. He is a very versatile runner who can sprint or route and has faced graded stakes company in eight of his last ten outings including turf and dirt events. He is your key runner at 6-1.
No. 5 Injunction is the lightest raced runner in the field who has shown improvement in each of his five starts. He was last seen at Churchill Downs winning his second lifetime start after breaking his maiden at Keeneland. This horse is a bit of an unknown but has upside potential at odds of 20-1 as one of three 4-year-olds in the field.
No. 6 Ny Traffic is one of three runners trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. Similar to No. 9 Diamond Oops, he has faced graded stakes company in eight of his last 10 outings, and comes out of a N.Y. bred sprint where he won in the slop at six and one half furlongs. He will be very competitive here at odds of 9-2.
Bill Mott trains the likely favorite in No. 3 Speaker’s Corner who is one of three lightly raced competitors in this field. This runner has high early speed but can be rated evidenced by wins on both the front end and off pace. He will be very tough here as a 4-year-old with upside.
No. 4 Fearless trained by Todd Pletcher ran behind Speaker’s Corner last time out in the Fred Hooper (G3) at the same distance at Gulfstream. He should be part of the mix again in this event and may vie for favoritism with No. 3 Speaker’s Corner.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 9 with 3, 4, 5 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 11
The Mac Diarmida (G2) is a turf marathon contested at one mile and three eighths for 4-year-olds and up. A field of 11 has been entered including five runners hailing from the Mike Maker barn and three runners from the Todd Pletcher barn, which leaves just three runners managed by other trainers. Three 4-year-old colts are entered and the balance are older runner ranging in age from five to seven. Eight runners last raced at Gulfstream, with two others last racing at Sam Houston and the remaining entrant was last out at Tampa Bay. Three runners exit dirt routes at Gulfstream, and all others exit turf events. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three of five races and two of five at the distance. Runners have had the lead at the second call about 15 percent of the time with one runner having nearly half of those leads. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to those forwardly placed.
No. 8 Temple has a strong turf record in the money two of every three starts who grinds out a lot of checks winning infrequently. He is very consistent and knows how to pass horses or can be on the lead as a very tractable player here. This is your key runner at 9-2 as one of the Mike Maker trainees.
Another of the Mike Maker trainees is No. 3 Glynn County who has run some of the fastest races in the field and has faced the toughest competition recently coming out of five consecutive graded stakes. He has finished fourth and fifth at this distance in two tries and is in the money about half the time. He fits well here at odds of 15-1.
One of the few runners not trained by Todd Pletcher or Mike Maker is No. 7 Fantasioso, who is conditioned by Ignacio Correas IV. His running style is to come from somewhat far out of it, and he did that last time at Sam Houston in a graded stake for the win at a longer distance. He merits inclusion on his occasional big race and odds of 15-1 as a runner who gets a check about two of every three starts.
No. 10 Shamrocket trained by Todd Pletcher exits two consecutive events on dirt. He is nearly as fast as anyone in the field on turf and has never been off the board in his six Gulfstream turf starts. He is 6-1.
No. 1 Abaan one of the other Todd Pletcher trainees is the runner with the most leads at the second call and a strong threat to wire the field if left unchallenged. The likely favorite has to be included and has never finished worse than second in six turf tries including one win at the distance.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 1, 3, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 12
The Fountain of Youth (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth on the dirt for 3-year-olds is another Road to the Derby event where runners accumulate qualifying points for the Run for the Roses. A full field of 12 is entered in this very competitive event. Runners exit races from Tampa Bay, Churchill, Saratoga and Keeneland in addition to Gulfstream. Trainers Dale Romans and Bill Mott each have two entries and four runners are stretching out to a route for the first time. The field combined has been in the money eight of every 10 starts overall and seven for 10 at the distance. The runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four tries, and with the presence of several horses running a route for the first time I anticipate a fast pace. As a result, the advantage should be to mid pack runners and closers.
One of the runners stretching out and one of two trained by Bill Mott is No. 9 High Oak who has won two of three sprints off pace and has not raced since September of last year when he finished fourth in the Hopeful (G1). A softer pace in this first try at a route coupled with his running style make him a key player and your key runner at 8-1, which appears to be an overlay.
Ken McPeek trains No. 6 Rattle N Roll who won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last time out at today’s distance. Given the pace scenario, he should be passing a lot of horses in the stretch like he did in that event and is a great superfecta play here at 8-1.
No. 3 Howling Time is one of the runners trained by Dale Romans. He comes back off a fifth place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), a key race for a number of successful next out runners, where he finished fifth after two consecutive wins. He should be well prepared to run well after three months of rest in his first start as a 4-year-old and is 15-1.
Kelly Breen sends out No. 4 In Due Time who has run well in all three starts including two wins with one last out at Gulfstream at a mile. His pressing style will work well against a hot pace, and he should be close to the lead or mid pack with a strong closing punch adding a slight amount of distance to his last start. He is 6-1.
Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out the probable favorite in No. 8 Emmanuel who ran impressively on the lead in wins at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay both in routes. He has to carry his speed slightly farther today, and will face a lot of pressure, but he is difficult to dismiss given those two strong performances.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 9 with 3, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.
At Santa Anita
Race 5
The Buena Vista Stakes (G2) run at one mile on the turf for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up attracted 11 runners ranging in age from four to six with only one runner not California based who is shipping in from the East coast for Brendan Walsh. Two runners are trained by Phil D’Amato and the entire field has run at least this distance with two last racing on synthetic. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two of every three starts overall and at the distance. Runners have had the lead at the second call one in five starts based upon races that show. There is a balance of speed, mid pack and closing types, and I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.
No. 2 Tony Ann one of two Phil D’Amato entries won her last two starts at a mile and one eighth on the turf and is turning back to try a mile for the first time. She has won on the lead and off pace in those routes and has not been out of the money in five starts on turf including a sprint win. The mile may be a solid distance for her and at 6-1 she is your key runner.
High percentage trainer Leonard Powell sends out No. 7 Avenue de France, who runs to her competition and has been in the money two of every three starts. This mare does come from far off the pace and is the likeliest runner to make a bold move down the stretch to be part of the superfecta at nice odds of 15-1.
No. 3 Keeper of Time is shipping in from her last start at Gulfstream for Brendan Walsh. She is a bit of a wild card here, and is a bit slower than the better runners in this field. Prior to racing in the U.S, she competed abroad in six turf sprints. Her trainer is very judicious with his runners, and in her case, the inclusion is based upon the trainer’s willingness to ship into this field. She is 10-1.
No. 11 Mucho Unusual has been in the money eight of nine tries at the distance and over 75 percent of the time overall. She is a grinder who runs as consistently as any runner in the field, and merits inclusion on that basis alone although she will not be long odds.
No. 5 Leggs Galore the other Phil D’Amato trained runner has a decided early speed advantage here and is going to be on the lead as far as she can go. She has competed in mostly sprints, and has been in the money two of three times at this distance. This runner could be favored at post time.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 3, 5, 7 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.