4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Belmont and Churchill

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result. 

This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.  

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.

SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12 

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly

The Saturday card at Belmont provides three opportunities on dirt and turf and the Churchill card provides one opportunity on dirt.

At Belmont

Race 7

This mile and one sixteenth allowance race on the inner turf for state-bred 3-year olds and up attracted a field of ten runners including six runners who exit races from Belmont, two from Aqueduct and one each from Laurel and Finger Lakes. All runners exit turf events except for one each with last outs on dirt at Belmont, Laurel and Finger Lakes. Two runners have new trainers, four runners are coming in off layoffs including three making their first start as a 3-year-old and one runner is trying turf for the first time.  Runners have combined to be in the money about two in five starts overall and at the distance. There is not an abundance of speed with the field combining for the lead at the second call about one in eight starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace, with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

Jose Camejo is excellent overall and especially with first time new runners in his barn taking over the training duties for No. 3 Barleewon a state bred who was running in the Midwest for the better part of 2021 with little success. This runner tends to close, but has shown near the lead ability at times. His overall record is unimpressive, but he has upside being back in N.Y. with a new trainer. He is your key horse at 6-1.

No. 8 Son of an Ex is trying turf for the first time and has been in the top four seven of his last eight starts. His running style and the pace and speed he has shown put him in the superfecta mix at odds of 15-1.

No. 9 Barrage is making his first start since last fall and new trainer Ray Handal has a strong record in this situation. This entrant who has been in the money three of five turf starts, has a lot of tactical but not need to lead type speed and should be a factor throughout at odds of 9-2.

High percentage small stable trainer John Terranova sends out No. 2 Breadman who has a pace pressing style, faced tougher fields than most in this race, is likely to improve with trainer Terranova’s success second start off a layoff, and may be one of the betting favorites.

Trainer Mike Maker sends out one of the shorter priced runners in No. 5 Rally Squirrel who has a lot of tactical speed and has run as fast as anyone in the field. He should be laying off the pace and be a strong stretch factor.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 2, 5, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

A one mile on dirt optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up attracted nine runners including two trained by Chad Brown. All runners exit dirt events including three with last outs at Belmont, three from Aqueduct, two from Keeneland and one from Oaklawn.  Two runners have new trainers with one coming in off the claim. The field has combined for an in the money rate of about three in five starts overall and at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one time in eight starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

No. 3 The Reds has a pressing running style and has shown improvement in his first two starts as a 4-year-old. He has been in the money six of 11 starts and figures to be right there at the end from a mid-pack striking position, continuing to improve as your key runner at odds of 6-1.

Linda Rice takes over the training duties for No. 8 Hammerin Aamer a runner who is a closer but seems to always show up and grind his way to a creditable finish with an in the money rate about the same as the overall field as the runner with by far the most starts in the field. He is 12-1 and a great superfecta player with the added bonus of trainer Rice doing well off the claim.

Trainer Jim Ryerson does not win much but does have a runner who fits the profile of a superfecta player in No. 4 Market Alert who won his only try at the distance and that includes being on the lead at the second call in that effort and his most recent effort. Expect him to stalk the speed or be on the lead and at 12-1 be part of the mix at the end.

No. 2 Highly Motivated is one of the two runners trained by Chad Brown and as one of the probable betting favorites looks very strong here making his second 4-year-old start after an impressive 3-year-old campaign that ended with his only poor performance of the year in the Kentucky Derby (G1). His return in a sprint at Keeneland was a solid fourth and he should show improvement in this race with his stalking style. 

The other Chad Brown entry is No. 9 Stage Raider who will likely take a similar amount of money as No. 2 Highly Motivated. He has finished first or second in four of five tries and his lone out of the money finish was an event where he stumbled at the start. He has the fewest starts in the field and the most upside potential in his third 4-year-old try and he also has some tactical pace pressing speed.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 2, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60

Race 9

A full field of 12 has been entered in this seven furlong turf stake for 3-year-old fillies including three trained by Christophe Clement. All runners exit turf events except one exiting a race on synthetic and another from a dirt event who is trying turf for the first time. Last out tracks include Turfway for the synthetic runner, Churchill for the first time turf runner, and the balance of the field exits turf races from a mix of Keeneland, Aqueduct, Del Mar, Gulfstream, Belmont and a final entrant coming in off an exclusively European background with a last out in France. The Del Mar and European runner are coming in off extended layoffs. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of three in five starts overall and a slightly higher rate at the distance in only six total starts. There is little speed in the race with runners combining for a lead at the second call under one in ten starts for races that show. The pace should favor forwardly placed and on the lead runners.

Dominant turf sprint trainer Wesley Ward saddles No. 12 Chardy Party for her second start off a debut win at Keeneland on turf at five and one half furlongs. It is difficult to improve upon Ward’s overall statistics, but he wins one of every three starts second time out and is three of four in the money in this circumstance. She debuted coming off the pace and at 9-2 is your key runner with an expected better start and a lot of upside potential.

No. 3 Lost My Sock won on debut and has finished fourth in her two subsequent starts all turf sprints. Her last effort was solid running evenly in a Keeneland turf stake and this is her longest start to date coming off shorter runs. Her even running style with tactical speed should ensure she is a factor throughout and a solid superfecta contender at odds of 15-1.

Bill Mott sends out No. 7 Wonka who is turning back from two turf routes in big fields where he was fourth and third at the second call and logged a second and first in those two starts. The turn back to seven furlongs and his running style in those two starts combine for a very competitive runner with a lot of reserve down the stretch at odds of 8-1.

One of the Christophe Clement entrants is No. 9 Derrynane who finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) and ran a creditable second in her comeback race at Keeneland in an ungraded turf sprint. She has been in the top four in four of five turf sprint starts and should take a lot of money as the probable second choice.

The probable favorite who is coming in off a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) after two wins is No. 8 Haughty trained by Chad Brown. This is her first turf sprint try, and she should be pressing or close to the lead and be right there at the end.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 12 with 3, 7, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

At Churchill

Race 11

A nearly full field of eleven 3-year-old fillies line up for this six furlong dirt allowance event for non-winners of two lifetime. Eight runners exit dirt events, two turf events and one a synthetic event with one dirt and one turf runner making their first start as a 3-year-olds off layoffs. Last out tracks include Turfway for the synthetic runner, Saratoga and Churchill for the turf runners and a mix of Gulfstream, Oaklawn and Churchill for the dirt runners. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than one in two starts overall and greater than three in four starts at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call about one in eight starts. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to horses on the lead and slightly off the pace.

Small stable trainer Mike Puhich does well with a limited stock and sends out No. 6 Bali Dreamin who has a first and second in two starts, presses the pace, and figures to inherit a solid placing off the pace at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.

No. 9 Highland Square is a bit of a wildcard here off one effort at Turfway on synthetic at this distance where she won on debut. Her odds of 6-1 coupled with a lot of upside potential off that one excellent effort make her a key player in the superfecta.

No. 10 Code for Success won on debut at today’s distance and that effort was followed by three straight failures in dirt routes including two Graded stakes but it included two fourth place finishes out of those three runs. The turn back to six furlongs in her first race as a 3-year-old should be solid given her win on debut and I anticipate a solid move in the stretch at odds of 12-1.

No. 8 Ontheonesandtwos came in a solid second in a six and one half furlong race in the slop at Keeneland in her 3-year-old debut and figures to improve off that effort. She ran well on debut and her second start in dirt sprints and then failed in three consecutive Graded events as a 2-year-old all routes including one on turf. The distance suits her and she should be in the thick of it down the stretch as one of the runners taking the most money.

No. 2 Ari Oakley trained by Steve Asmussen has finished in the top four all at six furlongs since her off the board finish on debut. She looks the fastest, is the likely favorite but is facing a large field with upside potential as 3-year-olds and while she is a must include, she will probably be an underlay at post time.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 6 with 2, 8, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.