4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Belmont Park
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in, especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finishes in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Belmont provides four opportunities on turf.
At Belmont
Race 2
A field of nine colts and geldings will line up for this inner turf claiming event at a 1 1/16 miles for 3-year-olds and up. Eight of the nine exit turf events including three at Belmont, two each at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and one at Monmouth with one lone runner exiting a dirt race at Belmont and trying a turf route for the first time. Two runners have new trainers with one of those runners stretching out on turf for the first time. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in four tries overall and four in ten tries at the distance. These runners have moderate to little speed combining for the lead at the second call about one in ten starts for races that show and one runner accounts for half of those leads. I anticipate a slow to moderate pace with the advantage to those horses on or near the lead.
No. 2 Bezos is trying a turf route for the first time and projects to be as fast as anyone in the field off his one turf sprint try. He has some tactical speed and should relax near the pace and be a strong stretch factor for trainer Mike Maker as your 9-2 key runner.
No. 5 Super Wicked Charm does not have a very strong record but does show up occasionally at very long odds and he should be grinding his way into position from near the back part of the field. He is very unlikely to win but fits with four top-four finishes in his last six turf tries and in the other two starts he finished fifth all efforts in bigger fields than he is facing today. His odds are 20-1.
Charlton Baker sends out No. 3 Born a Gambler who has a five of six in the money record including one of two starts on turf. He should be near but not on the lead and grind his way to a strong showing at odds of 6-1.
No. 8 Brazillionaire trained by Linda Rice has the most speed, will likely be on the lead even from the outside post, and has been in the money seven of 10 starts. He should last for a piece of the superfecta at relatively low odds.
Michelle Nevin sends out No. 7 Bless Bless the runner with the fewest starts in the field making only his second start as a 4-year-old. He has two in the money finishes in three tries at the distance and rates the best in the field with the most upside.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 3, 5, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 3
This maiden claimer on the main turf course for 3-year-olds and up at six furlongs attracted 10 colts and geldings ages three and four. Six runners exit turf events, and two each exit synthetic and dirt events. Last out tracks include six at Belmont including five on turf and one on dirt, two at Gulfstream on synthetic, one on Keeneland turf and one Churchill dirt runner. Two entrants are trying a turf sprint for the first time and two are trying turf for the first time including one coming in off an extended layoff. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in five tries overall and has only contested this distance a few times with one in the money finish. There is very little speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call under less than one in 10 tries for races that show. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead. The race does look very wide open given two first-time turf runners, a turn back runner, layoffs, and the few starts at the distance.
Danny Gargan sends out No. 7 Rugged Union who is shortening up from a 7-furlong turf try. He was fourth at the second call in an 11-horse field after being on the shelf for nearly a year and a half. Expect improvement at 4-1 as your key runner.
No. 11 Jimmy the Boot trained by Christophe Clement who has been doing exceptionally well at Belmont makes his second Belmont turf try and his even running style suggests he could be part of the mix late with this second 6-furlong sprint try after four route efforts. He has three top four finishes and may be plodding along passing horses near the end at odds of 8-1.
Joe Sharp sends out No. 8 King of Sting who has three turf route tries finishing with one third-place finish after being on the lead till deep stretch. The turn back in distance coupled with one other try on turf where he closed to a fourth-place finish make him a likely stretch factor either on the lead or just off pace. His odds are 8-1.
No. 9 Starrystarryknight has been in second, third or fourth position at the second call in all of his tries on both turf and dirt with one top-four finish. He has shown slight improvement in each try, and if he continues that trend he will be part of the mix at the end at odds of 6-1.
Dominant turf sprint trainer Wesley Ward sends out the runner with the fewest starts in the field in No. 1 Uptown Hustler who has one out of the money start and he figures to improve off that effort. He should take a lot of money as one of the short-priced horses.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 1, 8, 9 and 11. Total wager: $9.60
Race 7
This 1 1/16 miles optional claimer on the inner turf exclusively for 3-year-olds attracted 10 male runners including two each trained by Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher. Eight runners exit turf events and two exit synthetic races. Last out tracks on turf include four at Keeneland, two at Belmont, and one each at Woodbine and Aqueduct along with two runners exiting synthetic races at Dundalk (Ireland) and Chantilly (France). One runner is coming in off an extended layoff and three runners are trying turf routes for the first time. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three in five starts overall and has been in the money half the time in only six starts at the distance. There is little speed with the field combining for a lead at the second call only two times in 25 tries for races that show. The pace is going to be slow, and the advantage will be to the front runners.
No. 8 Dripping Gold for Shug McGaughey is making his first start as a 3-year-old after a win at Saratoga on debut where he was near the lead throughout followed by on off the board finish in the Summer Stakes (G1) at Woodbine last fall. He should improve off this layoff and looks like an overlay at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.
Brad Cox sends out No. 9 Icarus who has four tries including three on synthetic coming from behind or near the lead in these efforts with three in the money finishes. His tractability is an advantage and he figures to grind out a strong showing at odds of 8-1.
No. 7 Castle Leoch is making his fifth overall start for Wesley Ward and his four prior starts all turf sprints ended with four top-four finishes. He has a pressing, grinding-type running style and projects to be very competitive at overlay odds of 15-1.
Christophe Clement saddles No. 4 Merci who has one win and a fourth-place finish at the distance. He is a closer but difficult not to include when you look at those two performances and the trainer. He will be coming on in the stretch as a top four factor later at odds of 9-2.
One of the Chad Brown runners is No. 1 Credit Event who was close to the pace on synthetic in a small field of five breaking his maiden at first asking. He did not fare well at Keeneland in his first turf try. His post position and only a slightly improved position early make him a solid stretch factor as one of the betting favorites.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 1, 4, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
This maiden event at 1 3/8 miles on the inner turf attracted a field of 10 runners all 3-year-old colts and geldings including two trained by Chad Brown. Nine runners exit turf races with one lone runner exiting a dirt event. One runner is trying turf for the first time and another is trying a turf route for the first time. Last out tracks include six at Belmont with five on turf and one on dirt, two at Monmouth on turf and one each at Churchill and Aqueduct on turf. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of one in three starts overall and no runner has contested this distance although three have participated in turf marathons. I anticipate a very slow pace with the advantage to those runners on or near the lead. The lightly raced nature of the field coupled with the marathon distance make this race a very wide open event.
Shug McGaughey sends out No. 4 Braille for his first turf try. His second call positions were within three lengths or fewer in his three dirt and synthetic starts. He should be close in this field and the added distance will make him a major player with some closing punch. He is your key runner at odds of 6-1.
No. 7 Hooky Player trained by solid small stable trainer Jorge Duarte Jr. is trying a marathon for the first time after four consecutive top-four finishes in turf routes. He is a grinding type of runner and should like the added distance. His odds are 15-1.
No. 3 Thistle was very far back in his two tries for trainer Chad Brown closing little ground in the second start. He projects to be trailing early off those two starts and the pace will be much slower in his first marathon try. With the switch in distance, I expect he will be closer to the pace early and while still a closer, his late pace ability suggests he may pass enough runners in the stretch to be a superfecta factor at odds of 8-1.
Christophe Clement sends out No. 5 Remote who has run two turf marathons after his debut on synthetic. His last was a toss out losing his rider and his prior effort puts him in the thick of it when he finished fourth. He had trouble in both those efforts. He has proven to be a marathon runner to some degree and with a good trip is a major player here at odds of 9-2.
No. 1 Forwardly another trained by Chad Brown is one of the few runners who has shown some sort of near the lead ability when he was third at the second call in his last start. This is his first marathon try and that moves him up. The pace should be dawdling and he will be part of the mix throughout as one of the shorter-priced runners.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 3, 5 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.