4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Tampa Bay, Oaklawn, Santa Anita
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Tampa Bay provides two opportunities on dirt, Santa Anita provides one opportunity on turf and Oaklawn provides one opportunity on dirt.
Tampa Bay
Race 8
The Challenger Stakes (G3) is a mile and one sixteenth dirt race for 4-year-olds and up that attracted a field of 10 runners including two each trained by Todd Pletcher and Shug McGaughey respectively. Five runners last raced at Gulfstream, one each at Churchill and Saratoga and the remaining three at Tampa Bay. Three runners are coming off layoffs, two exit synthetic surface efforts, and two exit turf events. The field combined has been in the money about three of every five starts, and four of five at the distance. There is a decent amount of speed, with runners combining for a lead at the second call about one in five tries for races that show. I anticipate a fast pace, with the advantage to mid pack runners.
No. 9 Cody’s Wish for trainer Bill Mott is one runner entered off a layoff who has shown improvement in virtually every start and has been in the money all six tries. He has never been more than a few lengths out of it at the second call and I anticipate continued improvement in his first start as a 4-year-old as your key runner who should press the pace and be strong in the stretch at odds of 8-1, which appears to be an overlay.
No. 6 Hidden Stash has run two times as a 4-year-old both turf efforts. His experience on the dirt is strong enough to be a factor here when you trace back to his early 2021 efforts, including meeting Graded stake company four consecutive tries. He is also in the money all four of his tries at the distance which amplifies his inclusion at 12-1.
No. 1 Wolfie’s Dynaghost is a runner who has experience on all three surfaces, showing ability on each, with strong tactical but not need to lead speed. He is a bit of a wild card here, off four consecutive synthetic and turf starts. Prior to that, he was just off the lead at Churchill in a sprint chasing a very fast pace. He may be in the perfect position to relax on or near the lead, and last for a share, and could be unchallenged and very dangerous here at odds of 10-1.
No. 3 Greatest Honour is coming off an extended layoff for trainer Shug McGaughey in his first try as a 4-year-old. His performances as a 3-year-old are comparable with the better runners in this field, and that combined with the expected improvement in his 4-year-old season will make him a tough competitor as the potential post time favorite. His running style is to come off the pace and I anticipate a big run down the stretch. He is three for three at the distance.
No. 4 Dynamic One trained by Todd Pletcher is another runner coming in off a layoff making his first start as a 4-year-old and he has probably met some of the toughest competitors in this field. He should show improvement similar to other debuting 4-year-olds in the field and may vie for favoritism with No. 3 Greatest Honour.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 9 with 1, 3, 4 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 11
The Tampa Bay Derby (G2) is another Road to the Derby qualifying race for 3-year-olds. This mile and one sixteenth dirt event attracted a full field of 12 colts and geldings with three exiting races from Gulfstream, one each from Churchill and Aqueduct respectively in addition to seven last running at Tampa Bay. Two runners are stretching out from a sprint to a route for the first time and all runners exit dirt races including five runners exiting the Sam F. Davis at this same distance and surface at Tampa Bay. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of about three of every four starts overall and slightly less at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed in the field, with the runners combining for a lead at the second call just slightly lower than one in four starts. I anticipate a very solid pace, with off pace runners having an advantage.
No. 11 Money Supply is stretching out from a six furlong win at Tampa Bay for trainer Chad Brown and projects to be just slightly slower than the faster runners in the field. I anticipate an improved performance and a big stretch move for your key runner who is 10-1.
No. 1 Grantham is coming out of the Withers (G3) run at a longer distance than this event and he ran a creditable fourth in the slop in only his third lifetime start. His prior efforts including a strong performance in a dirt debut sprint and a win on synthetic at today’s distance. The Withers (G3) produced a next out upset winner in Un Ojo, which may bode well for No. 1 Grantham, who projects to be a bit slower than others in the field, but is an attractive superfecta player at odds of 20-1.
No. 8 Major General is coming off the longest layoff in the entire field and has won both tries including one at today’s distance. A nearly six month layoff for a 3-year-old could be significant and huge improvement is anticipated on average, for most runners in his circumstance. He should be a big factor here coming off pace for trainer Todd Pletcher.
No. 9 Shipsational ran second in the Sam F. Davis (G3) last time out never challenging the winner, but may have more pace to run at this time. Prior to that effort, he was closer to the pace and even scored while on the lead. He should be a contender here at odds of 5-1.
No. 4 Classic Causeway is the likely betting favorite off his convincing win in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and similar to that event should be the betting favorite. He is certainly going to be a part of the mix again, and cannot be left out of the superfecta.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 11 with 1, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Oaklawn
Race 9
The Azeri Stakes (G2) for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up will be contested at one mile and one sixteenth on the dirt. Nine runners are entered including two for high percentage small stable trainer Shawn Davis who ships in from last outs at Sam Houston. Entries last time outs include a total of three from Sam Houston, two from Oaklawn and individual runners from Churchill, Zia, Santa Anita and Del Mar. One runner last raced on turf, another runner has a new trainer and three are racing off layoffs. The runners have combined for an in the money rate of over two of every three races overall and four of five at the distance. The field has combined for a rate of being on the lead at the second call nearly one in four outings for those races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those runners coming from mid pack or far out of it.
No. 6 Lady Mystify is trained by California based trainer Peter Eurton. She is lightly raced and making only her eighth start and first as a 4-year-old. Improvement should be expected, she does not need the lead, and has only one poor outing in those seven prior starts. At 4-1 she is your key horse.
No. 9 Super Quick is the only runner in the field who is a need to lead type. She has been working very fast, and is making her first start as a 4-year-old. She is dangerous if the pace pressure allows her to clear and relax enough on the front end to maintain a solid position in the stretch and hang around late. This runner is on a three race win streak, and although two efforts were in the slop, she is a strong superfecta factor at odds of 10-1.
No. 1 She’s All Wolfe is slower than most of her opposition and ran a big race last time out at Oaklawn finishing second at today’s distance. The race sets up for her running style to pass a lot of runners in the stretch and be part of the superfecta once again at odds of 12-1 which I expect to drift higher.
No. 5 Ce Ce trained by Michael McCarthy is the most recent winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and tends to face smaller fields in California primarily competing in sprints. Her record at this distance is competitive with in the money finishes three of four tries. She is difficult to exclude here as one of the runners vying for favoritism along with the fact that her races are some of the fastest in the field.
No. 7 Shedaresthedevil trained by Eclipse award winning trainer Brad Cox is the likely betting favorite off her impeccable record at the distance never being out of the money in ten tries, her strong tactical speed, and her fast times similar to No. 5 Ce Ce.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 6 with 1, 5, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Santa Anita
Race 9
The Hillside turf course sets the stage for the San Luis Rey Stakes (G3) for 4-year-olds and up contested at one mile and one half. Nine runners have been entered including three trained by Phil D’Amato along with one runner having a new trainer. Six runners exit Santa Anita turf races, with the remaining entrants exiting turf events at Del Mar and Fairgrounds along with another exiting a dirt event at Santa Anita. Two runners are coming off layoffs. The field has been in the money at a combined rate of nearly half their starts, and at a slightly lower rate at the distance. Two runners have combined for all the leads at the second call with no other runners demonstrating that in races that show. The pace should be controlled with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.
No. 4 Dicey Mo Chara is one of the more lightly raced runners in the field and this runner has never contested a turf marathon. He has a balanced running style, and that may prove to be advantageous to be within striking distance throughout the race. This combined with this run being only his second start as a 4-year-old makes him an attractive superfecta player at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.
No. 9 Offlee Naughty has one turf route to his credit and has run close to No. 4 Dicey Mo Chara three separate times in his even briefer career than the latter. His one marathon run was a victory, and he is a tractable runner. At 10-1 he fits with these with some upside potential in this only his second start as a 4-year-old.
No. 7 Award Winner is a close to the pace runner who does not need the lead and should be right off the lead. He does not win much, is as fast as anyone in the field and has to be included because of his forwardly placed running style. He comes off one of his better career efforts where he finished fourth at this distance and surface finishing behind two other runners in this field.
The runner who will likely take them as far as he can go is No. 6 Acclimate from the Phil D’Amato barn. His record at this distance is not very good, but he may be unchallenged throughout except for pressure from No. 7 Award Winner and should last for a share.
No. 1 Say the Word one of the other Phil D’Amato runners is a formidable turf runner at long distances evidenced by a six for six in the money rate at the distance coupled with his ten consecutive Graded stake performances which include seven in the money finishes. The probable favorite has to be included even though he is a deep closer.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.