4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Oaklawn and Gulfstream
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
re are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Oaklawn provides three opportunities on dirt the only surface at Oaklawn, and Gulfstream provides one opportunity on dirt.
At Oaklawn
Race 6
Nine colts and geldings have been entered in this mile and one sixteenth maiden race on the dirt for 3-year-olds including two by Steve Asmussen. Seven exit races from Oaklawn and one each from Fairgrounds and Churchill respectively with one runner stretching out to a route of ground for the first time and another coming off a layoff. Runners have combined for an overall in the money rate of two in every five starts with a similar rate at the distance. There is little speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call only two times in 25 starts. I anticipate a slow pace, with prominently placed horses having an advantage.
No. 3 Blame Eli is the one runner stretching out to a route for the first time logging two fourth place finishes in his two starts at six furlongs. He is not a front runner but does fit the profile of a superfecta factor and projects to be as fast as anyone in the field. At odds of 8-1 he is your key runner.
No. 6 Rider’s Special trained by Steve Asmussen has a pressing style who improved his early position in each of his three starts and has run progressively faster in each of those tries. He is slightly slower than the faster runners in the field and although he is out of the money in each of those starts, he projects to be right there with only a slight improvement at odds of 8-1.
No. 9 Chiron has failed to hit the board in his two tries. On debut he showed nothing in a sprint and last time out he ran evenly at a mile off a fast pace running mid pack throughout coming out of the same race as No. 4 Plausible Denile who should take a lot of money. At 20-1 he is worth including for a potentially attractive superfecta payout.
Trainer Brad Cox sends out No. 1 Quick to Blame who has finished no worse than fourth in each of his tries. Similar to No. 6 Rider’s Special, he has gotten better in each try, and is the likely post time favorite. He has a forwardly placed running style which should be a huge advantage here.
No. 4 Plausible Denile is going to vie for favoritism with No. 1 Quick to Blame off two straight solid in the money performances and his forwardly placed running style includes having the lead at the second call in one of his two starts. He should be a factor throughout and last for a share.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 1, 4, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
The Fantasy Stakes (G3) contested at one mile and one sixteenth for 3-year-old fillies brings together nine runners including two trained by Brad Cox. Four runners had last outs at Oaklawn, two at Fairgrounds, and one each from Aqueduct, Santa Anita and Turfway respectively. All exit dirt races except for the runner coming off the Turfway event on synthetic. The field has combined for an in the money rate of four of every five starts and a similar rate at the distance. There is a solid amount of speed, with runners having the lead at the second call about two in five starts. I anticipate a fast pace, with off pace runners having an advantage.
Joe Sharp sends out No. 8 Heartyconstitution who has been in the money both six furlong sprint start runs at Oaklawn and projects to be competitive here in her first try a route. She does not need the lead based upon those efforts and at 12-1 she is your key horse.
No. 1 Dream Lith ran poorly in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) this Feburary in her first start since November of last year. I anticipate improvement in her second start off the layoff for this runner trained by Robertino Diodoro. She tends to come from off the pace and should be a strong stretch factor at odds of 8-1.
No. 4 Magic Circle recently changed trainers and is now in the Steve Asmussen barn. Her record includes five in the money finishes in six tries. Her lone out of the money finish was against Echo Zulu, the current leading 3-year-old filly also trained by Steve Asmussen. She has run longer than today’s distance and should be a contender throughout but does not need the lead. Her odds are 5-1.
No. 9 Bubble Rock one of two trained by Brad Cox tries dirt for the first time after five in the money finishes in six tries on turf and synthetic. She does not have need to lead speed and looks like a tractable runner who can sit off the anticipated fast pace in her first try at more than a mile.
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out the likely favorite in No. 5 Eda shipping in off seven west coast starts including five victories. She tends to be a stalker, is two for two at the distance, and has to be included.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 1, 4, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 12
The Arkansas Derby (G1) contested at one mile and one eighth on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted eight colts and geldings and one filly. This is another Road to the Derby point accumulation event. The entire field exits dirt races with seven last running at Oaklawn including five exiting the Rebel (G2) along with one each from Santa Anita and Fairgrounds respectively. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two of every three starts overall with one starter having run the race distance and finishing in the money in his lone try. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five tries for races that show. I anticipate a fast pace and this should provide an advantage to mid pack runners and closers.
No. 8 Cyberknife trained by Brad Cox has finished first or second in four of five outings with his lone off the board finish in the Lecomte (G3). His pressing and tractable running style coupled with his first try at Oaklawn meeting new opponents who do not appear to be any faster by any measure set him up for a lot of upside potential. His odds are 8-1 and he looks like an overlay as your key horse.
No. 3 Barber Road always shows up and is the classic grinder who has run seven times never finishing worse than fourth across four different tracks. He fits the profile of a classic superfecta player at odds of 8-1.
No. 9 We the People is a lightly raced runner who broke his maiden at Oaklawn in March and at the same time looks as good as most runners exiting the Rebel. He is worth inclusion here with strong upside potential making only his third start.
Trainer Wayne Lukas is entering the filly No. 6 Secret Oath who ran the same day as the males exiting the Rebel (G2) at the same distance in the Honeybee (G3). She ran faster than the Rebel (G2) runners and is going to be coming late with a powerful turn of foot. She may not get there but is a strong stretch factor.
Trainer Tim Yakteen has been given the training responsibility for No. 4 Doppelganger formerly trained by Bob Baffert. Similar to No. 8 Cyberknife, he is a new face at Oaklawn and he also has the fewest starts in the field with a lot of upside potential. He may vie for favoritism with No. 6 Secret Oath.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 3, 4, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Gulfstream
Race 14
The Florida Derby (G1) contested at one mile and one eighth for 3-year-olds on the dirt is a Road to the Derby point accumulation event which has attracted a nearly full field of 11 colts and geldings. Eight runners last raced at Gulfstream including seven exiting dirt runs and one exiting a turf event, with an additional two runners exiting Tampa Bay dirt events and one shipping in off a Fairgrounds dirt try. The field has combined for an in the money rate of over 75 percent overall. Only two runners have had a try at the distance, with one in the money finish. There is a solid amount of speed, with runners having the lead at the second call about 25 percent of the time. I anticipate a fast pace, with the advantage to mid pack runners.
No. 5 Pappacap trained by Mark Casse has run against tougher company than most runners in the field and has only one truly poor performance in seven starts which is his last outing in the Risen Star (G2) won easily by Epicenter one of the leading 3-year-olds. This is his second try at Gulfstream where he started out winning his debut in a sprint. He does not need the lead, is going to have a fast pace to run at, and is attractively priced at 10-1 as your key runner.
No. 1 Strike Hard has been well beaten by other in this field, but has managed to finish fourth or better in six of seven lifetime starts. He looks like a tractable runner who should be a factor in the stretch at long odds of 20-1.
No. 9 O Captain has been in the money all three tries including a third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) last time out. This runner has raced exclusively at Gulfstream and figures to grind to a superfecta finish off very fast fractions as the only true deep close in the field at odds of 20-1.
A new face is the lightly raced runner No. 6 Charge It trained by Todd Pletcher who has two mile runs at Gulfstream finishing second and first with a front running style. He looks as fast as anyone in the field and may has more upside potential in only his third start. He should be one of the betting favorites at post time.
No. 3 Simplification has raced exclusively at Gulfstream and figures to be a strong contender being on his home ground coupled with his five consecutive in the money finishes after failing on synthetic in his debut. He may be the post time favorite.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 1, 3, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.