4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Oaklawn and Gulfstream
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result. This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager. The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Oaklawn provides three opportunities on dirt the only surface at Oaklawn and one dirt opportunity at Gulfstream.
At Oaklawn
Race 6
This lower level claiming race at six furlongs on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up brings together a full field of twelve geldings ranging in age from four to eight. Six of the runners are racing off the claim, and two are trained by Randy Matthews. Eleven of the twelve runners last raced at Oaklawn and one runner last raced at Indiana. The field combined has been in the money two of every five starts overall and at the distance. Runners combined have had the lead at the second call one in six times for races that show, with two of the runners having over half of those leads. The pace should be swift largely due to those two front running types, with runners just off the lead and mid pack having an advantage.
No. 11 Stormin Hongkong is entered off the claim for recent Hall of Fame inductee Steve Asmussen. This runner does not win much, but has a well over 50 percent in the money rate and is a grinder. He looks as fast as anyone here, and at 6-1 as your key runner.
No. 7 Skyscanner is a runner who can race near the lead, but generally is mid pack and closes extremely well racing off the claim for trainer Paul Holthus. He has two wins in three starts at the distance and while the trainer does not have a good record off the claim, he still looks strong against this field given his running style and record. He is 6-1.
No. 4 Americain Joey has a strong late pace advantage here, and fits with these given the race scenario. He does not look like the type of runner who can pass horses to win but at 20-1 is good value for a high superfecta payout.
High percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro sends out the likely favorite in No. 10 Awesome Saturday, who has a solid record, tactical speed, and looks the fastest here. He does not need the lead, and does not win much, but will be very competitive against this field.
Trainer Chris Hartman has been having a solid meeting and sends out No. 3 Secretary At War, who like No. 10 Awesome Saturday, does not win much but he does grind to in the money finishes at this distance and on dirt 60 percent of the time. This runner is second off the claim, where Hartman wins almost one in three starts.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 11 with 3, 4, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 9
This one mile on the dirt allowance event for 4-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12 runners with half the field coming in at age four and the balance older runners up to age six. Ten of the runners last raced at Oaklawn with the other entries last racing at Churchill and Santa Anita respectively, and one runner stretching out from a sprint to route for the first time. Trainers Chris Hartman and Robertino Diodoro have two entries each and the Hartman runners are making their first start for his barn. The field has combined for well over 100 starts with a greater than 50 percent rate of being in the money, and a nearly two thirds rate at the distance. This race looks very unpredictable, with the chance for upsets a strong possibility. There is an abundant amount of speed in the field, with runners having the lead at the second call nearly one third of the time in races that show. The pace should be very fast, with the advantage to mid pack runners and deep closers.
No. 7 Martini Blu won on debut and then failed in an early 2021 3-year-old stake the Smarty Jones won by Caddo River, showing little in the race. He recently came back off a one year layoff with one creditable run in two starts, and he has the right running style to close into some very fast fractions and be your key runner at 8-1.
No. 2 Santos Dumont has six lifetime starts as a 5-year-old, and has run extremely fast fractions in some of his starts and is not a need to lead type. His ability to relax off the pace pressing throughout but not on the lead should make him a legitimate superfecta factor at odds of 12-1.
No. 6 Hunt the Front is the only true closer and the field and is just fast enough to be a factor in the stretch coming from far off the pace. He has been in the money two of every three starts and at the distance. As a superfecta play, he is very attractive at odds of 15-1.
Trainer John Haran has trained No. 1 Pats Property to a first and second place finish after taking over for Brad Cox. This runner is a close to the pace runner, but does have the capacity to come from slightly off the pace and has run some fast races in his five start career with four in the money finishes and two wins. He is an attractive 8-1.
The likely post time favorite and runner who combines the likelihood of improvement off his limited number of starts and age as a 4-year-old is No. 10 Prioritization for trainer Scott Becker. Becker has some of the more impressive trainer statistics overall winning with one of every three starters and in the money with two of every three starters since the beginning of 2021.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 1, 2, 6 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 11
The Rebel Stakes (G2) at a mile and one sixteenth on the dirt for 3-year-olds continues the Road to the Derby point accumulation series, with 11 colts entered including five who exit the same race at Oaklawn, the Southwest Stakes (G3) which was also run at today’s distance. Eight of the 11 runners last raced at Oaklawn, and the remaining three hail from Aqueduct, Churchill and Fairgrounds respectively. Of note, trainer Steve Asmussen has three entries. All runner have raced on the dirt at least one mile, with two slightly stretching out an additional sixteenth on the dirt for the first time. Horses have an overall record of about 60 percent in the money and slightly less at the distance. The race is very close on paper, and one runner is listed at 15-1 on the morning line with all others below that level. I anticipate a moderate pace, with horse having the lead at the second call about one in five times, with no need to lead types. The advantage should be to those runners forwardly placed.
No. 8 Chasing Time is one of the three Steve Asmussen trainees and also one of the two horses going beyond a mile for the first time. His last out was a blowout one mile win at Oaklawn, and he has a very balanced running style. This tractable runner should make a strong move in the stretch and be a great superfecta factor. At odds of 8-1, he is your key horse.
Trainer Dallas Stewart sends out No. 7 Ben Diesel, who finished a strong third in the Southwest Stakes (G3) being near the pace most of the race and hanging around for a third place finish. His earlier races include a similar effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), which has been a key race for a number of 3-year-old runners. He is 6-1.
Another Steve Asmussen runner is No. 6 Steller Tap, who makes his second start as a 3-year-old off a solid effort at the Fairgrounds where he finished a decent third to Pioneer of Medina who ran creditably in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) last weekend at Fairgrounds. His races have been a bit slower than most of the others in this field, and he has had some troubled trips. I anticipate improvement here at odds of 10-1.
One of the runners exiting the Southwest Stakes (G3) is No. 9 Barber Road, who finished a strong closing second in that race, and has shown up in each of his starts since his debut at Colonial, running on the lead or coming from off pace for five consecutive in the money finishes. He is 9-2.
No. 2 Newgrange, trained by Bob Baffert will be the likely favorite off his three for three record on the dirt, his victory in the Southwest Stakes (G3) last time out and his tactical speed. It would not be surprising to see him win again on the same surface at the same distance.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 8 with 2, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Gulfstream
This maiden race at one mile and one eighth on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a full field of 12 colts including five who exit the same mile and one sixteenth race at Gulfstream last time out, three from seven furlong efforts at Gulfstream, one from a Gulfstream synthetic route, and a few runners shipping in from Aqueduct, Fairgrounds and Tampa Bay. Two runners are trying a dirt route for the first time. Trainers Todd Pletcher and Dale Romans have two entries each. None of the runners have run this long in their brief careers, and the combined in the money rate for the field is less than one in three tries. Only two runners have had the lead at the second call in 38 starts. There is little front end speed in this race, and forwardly placed runners should have an advantage.
No. 6 Magia Nera is stretching out from a seven furlong effort in his lone try, and figures to improve trying a route for the first time, projecting to be as fast as anyone in the field off this dirt sprint. He has tactical speed, a balanced running style, and is going to be a factor throughout. At 8 to 1, he is your key runner.
Hall of Famer Bill Mott sends out No. 11 Iconic Adventure, who has been based in New York, and each of his runs has been progressively longer with the last race at a mile where he ran somewhat slower than others in this field. He showed some tactical speed in his prior sprint starts at Saratoga. I anticipate he will be forwardly placed in this likely slower paced dirt route than last out, with a strong sustained effort in the stretch. His odds are 8-1.
Trainer Todd Pletcher ships in No. 8 Pioneering Spirit from Fairgrounds. This is his third start on a dirt surface with two of his four starts on turf including his debut in Ireland. His last start was his strongest, and while he is a closer, he was mid pack last time with a very strong closing punch. He is 5-1.
No. 3 Montauk Point for trainer Shug McGaughey comes out of the Gulfstream race that included five of the competitors today. His first two starts at Saratoga were sprints where he flashed some speed and finished fourth in each try and this is his second start after a long layoff where the trainer has an excellent record. He should be forwardly placed and his last start also showed some strong closing ability. The additional distance is to his advantage here. He will be one of the betting favorites.
No. 10 Bourbon Heist has the most runs in the field at six with four second place finishes and a closing running style, with several troubled trips in those efforts. Although he is a closer, he has demonstrated the ability to pass a lot of horses, and has some of the fastest runs in the field. He has to be included as a superfecta factor on that basis. He may vie for favoritism with No. 3 Montauk Point.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 6 with 3, 8, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.