4 Superfecta Keys Saturday at Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Golden Gate
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Oaklawn provides two opportunities on dirt. Santa Anita provides one opportunity on turf and Golden Gate provides one opportunity on synthetic.
At Oaklawn
Race 2
This dirt mile maiden claiming race for 3-year-olds and up attracted 10 colts and geldings. Eight of ten runners had their last out at Oaklawn, and two runners last raced at Los Alamitos and Monmouth. The field has a total of 37 races combined with an in the money rate of less than one in four times. Half the field has tried the distance and three are going a route for the first time, while one runner is coming off the claim and another runner has a new trainer. Only one runner had the lead at the second call one time in those 37 starts. There is little speed in the race and the advantage should be to those runners forwardly placed.
Hall of Famer and all-time leading trainer Steve Asmussen sends out No. 2 Best Time who has not raced since September of last year when he tried the turf at Monmouth. Prior to that outing, his Ellis Park mile dirt try might be strong enough to win here and his other two starts on the dirt were competitive at sprint distances. At 6-1 he is your key horse.
No. 3 Gunstone is one of the runners stretching out, and this one had some trouble at the break in his only outing. Trainer John Ortiz has a strong record second time out and first time going a route of ground. This runner projects to be very competitive at a mile and is 8-1.
No. 5 King of Sting has flashed speed sufficient in his four starts, three on the dirt, that make him a tough competitor at a mile. His last two starts on dirt were slightly longer and he faded late. At 10-1 he looks like an overlay.
No. 10 River Redemption is the runner who was claimed last out. He has two top four finishes in five outings and looks like he will plod along to gain a placing at odds of 6-1.
The likely favorite with new trainer Rodolphe Brisset is No. 8 Portsmouth who looks like the fastest runner in the field off three top four placings in three starts all in California with two of those starts at today’s distance. He has a pressing style, and will never be far out of it, and could end up on the lead in this race devoid of speed.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 3, 5, 8 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
The Razorback Handicap (G3) has a long standing tradition run at Oaklawn since 1960. This mile and one sixteenth event on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted nine tough runners ranging in age from four to nine. Six runners last raced at Oaklawn, with the balance coming from Aqueduct, Thistledown and Remington. Trainers Steve Asmussen and Robertino Diodoro each saddle two runners and stand first and second respectively in the trainer standings at this meeting. The field has a combined rate of in the money finishes at just under 60 percent overall and a slightly higher than 60 percent rate at the distance along with a combined rate of one in six having the lead at the second call in their recent starts, with only one pure front runner and the balance of the field largely pressing and just off the lead types. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to runners who can come from off the pace. This is a very competitive race, with the morning line having only two runners at 15-1 or greater.
Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out No. 5 Promise Keeper, a 4-year-old who has been away since finishing fourth in the Ohio Derby (G3) last June. He has recorded only one poor performance in his six starts, and I anticipate improvement in his first start as a 4-year-old. He is your key runner at odds of 4-1.
The longest shot on the morning line is No. 1 Popular Kid shipping in from Remington, who is only slightly behind the better runners in this field. He has won half of his 16 starts at the distance, and has been in the money three of four starts at Oaklawn. His running style combined with odds of 20-1 make him a worthwhile runner to include for the superfecta.
No. 4 Rated R Superstar upset the field last out at a mile in a non-graded stake, and always shows up as probably the toughest hard hitting runner in the field with the most starts of any runner, and I anticipate he will show up again and be part of the mix late at odds of 8-1.
No. 9 Silver Prospector is one of two runners trained by Steve Asmussen and at 15-1 he looks like a huge overlay here. He has faced graded stakes competition more than any other runner in the field in their most recent 10 starts or less, and his pressing running style makes him a huge factor in the stretch at nice odds.
The likely favorite is No. 8 Plainsman for Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox. He has a three out of four in the money percentage as a lightly raced 7-year-old who was last seen in the Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct in December where he ran a strong third to an emerging star in Americanrevolution. This runner rarely runs a bad race, and seems to run to his competition.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 1, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Santa Anita
Race 9
The Hillside turf course sets the stage for the Sweet Life Stakes (G3) at the about distance of six and one half furlongs for 3-year-old fillies. Ten runners have been entered, most California based including two from leading southern California trainer Phil D’Amato with one runner shipping in from the east coast for trainer Graham Motion. These fillies have run a total of 52 times and have a rate of being in the money slightly lower than 60 percent. Only two runners have tried the distance once each with both finishing in the money. The field combined for having a one in seven rate of being in the lead at the second call. The race distance on the turf and the lightly raced nature of the field make it difficult to forecast how the race may shake out in terms of pace and make this race very contentious. Ignoring those two factors, half the field looks like it prefers to be on the front end from an overall speed comparison. I believe on this basis the advantage is for off the pace runners.
No. 2 Ouraika shipping in for Graham Motion looks like she is well spotted here. After two placings in three starts in France, she went to New York and logged a second and fourth in two starts. Overall she has never finished worse than fourth in all of those outings on turf, and the fact that Motion is shipping her in is a positive signal. She is your key horse at 4-1.
No. 1 Ellamira was last seen finishing fourth in a state bred stake at one mile on the turf after four outings on synthetic at Golden Gate. She had trouble in that mile event and prior to that had three consecutive in the money finishes at sprint distances at Golden Gate. Given the contentious nature of this race, she looks like a valid runner to include at 15-1 coming from mid pack to be a stretch factor.
Trainer John Sadler sends out No. 5 Dolly May who has a closing running style and has three consecutive starts at a mile on both the Del Mar and Santa Anita turf courses, after winning on debut in Ireland at seven furlongs on the turf. She is 8-1 and looks like an overlay with three in the money finishes out of four starts.
No. 9 Urban is the likely betting favorite after breaking her maiden at this distance last time out. She is a closer, and has five lifetime starts on the turf never finishing worse than fourth for trainer Simon Callaghan who has been having a tough meeting.
The final runner in this superfecta play is No. 7 Kitty Kitana, who is one of two trained by Phil D’Amato and her close finish to No. 9 Urban last time out makes these two difficult to separate. This runner has a lot of room for improvement making only her second U.S. start after finishing second on synthetic in Ireland and second here in the last out at this distance.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 1, 5, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
At Golden Gate
Race 8
The El Camino Real Derby at a mile and one eighth on synthetic is another Road to the Derby event where 3-year-old runners accumulate points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The field of 11 is comprised entirely of west coast runners based at Golden Gate or Santa Anita. Trainers Doug O’Neill and Felix Rondan each saddle two runners. The field has combined for 51 starts, with an in the money percentage of over 60 percent. Three runners are going longer than a sprint distance for the first time, and no runner has gone the distance of this race. One runner has had the lead at the second call two times and that is out of the total 51 starts for the entire field. I do not anticipate a fast pace, but races on this synthetic surface are very tactical with runaway speed an unusual strategy.
High percentage leading trainer Jonathan Wong sends out No. 6 Boise who has run solidly at Golden Gate with one stake win on synthetic and a sprint victory on the turf. He tends to come from way out of it with one big run, and looks tractable coming from fifth in his turf sprint victory. The added distance should help, and I anticipate a strong performance down the stretch. He is your key runner at 9-2.
No 1. Stormy Samurai is stretching out for high percentage trainer Jack Steiner. He has run three times in Golden Gate synthetic sprints with two wins and a fourth, all runs coming from mid pack with his pressing balanced running style. He projects to be nearly as fast as the best synthetic runners in the field and is 8-1.
No. 11 Del Mo is the first of two runners trained by Doug O’Neill. After his debut in a sprint at Santa Anita on the turf, he was shipped to Golden Gate where he has one win and two seconds all at a mile on synthetic, and a running style that suggests he will enjoy the additional furlong very similar to No. 6 Boise. He is 10-1.
The other Doug O’Neill runner in the field is the likely favorite No. 2 Mackinnon, who has never turned in a bad performance on dirt or turf including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished a solid third. This is his first try on synthetic, but his strong performances at both sprints and routes, coupled with his running style suggest he could be very strong here with the added furlong.
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out No. 4 Blackadder who unlike most Baffert runners, has not displayed speed from the gate in his three starts and looks like another closing type coming off three dirt starts at Santa Anita and Del Mar where he logged a first and third in addition to an out of the money finish. He figures to be competitive here combining his running style with the additional furlong.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 6 with 1, 2, 4 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.