4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Oaklawn Park
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse must finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Oaklawn provides four opportunities on dirt, the only surface at Oaklawn.
At Oaklawn
Race 4
A field of ten allowance runners are entered in a mile and one sixteenth dirt event for 4-year-olds and up with trainers Steve Asmussen and Robertino Diodoro each having two entries respectively. Eight runners exit dirt races at Oaklawn, another off a layoff exits a Woodbine synthetic route for a new trainer, and another off a layoff is exiting a dirt event at Saratoga. Two runners are stretching out and one is off the claim. The field has combined for an in the money rate of over 50 percent with a nearly three in four rate at the distance. There is an abundant amount of speed, with runners having the lead at the second call combining for a rate of nearly 40 percent. I anticipate a blazing pace, with the advantage to off pace runners and closers.
No. 5 Stayin’ Out Late is one of the Steve Asmussen runners, and he exits a sprint at Saratoga against some very tough competitors. His off pace running style will be very advantageous here, and he should be able to relax and be very tough down the stretch as your key horse, with attractive odds of 8-1.
Trainer Ron Moquett has one of the horses stretching out in No. 10 Lamutanaatty who has speed, but is not necessarily a pure front runner given only two starts at six furlongs. The upside potential of this runner is reasonable, and he projects to be as fast as the better runners in the field which merits his inclusion at 15-1.
No. 7 Majestic West has been in the money four of five at the distance, and his pace pressing tractable running style as a grinder makes him a big superfecta player at odds of 12-1.
No. 9 Beer Chaser is another stretch out runner trying a route of ground for the first time. His last effort is a toss out against very fast fractions in a sprint event, and he will face a softer pace here with upside potential adding distance. His odds are 20-1 in his second start for trainer Kim Puhl.
The likely favorite is No. 3 Palace Coup one of the runners trained by Robertino Diodoro. He is difficult to dismiss with his six of eight record at the distance. He is a need to lead type who is probably going to last for a share.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 3, 7, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 5
A field of ten geldings will be sprinting six furlongs on the dirt in this allowance event for 4-year olds and up . The field is comprised of locally based runners all having their last start at Oaklawn with trainer Lynn Chleborad having two entries along with two runners who race off the claim. The field has combined for an in the money rate of about 50 percent overall and at the distance. There is a reasonable amount of speed with runners having the lead at the second call about two in every ten starts. I anticipate a swift pace with the advantage to mid pack runners.
No. 10 Tappin Fora Dance is a grinder which is an unusual description for a sprinter, but this entrant runs evenly and seems to always be a part of the mix although he doesn’t win much. At 6-1, he is your key runner.
No. 4 Skyscanner is racing off the claim for high percentage small stable trainer Aaron Shorter. He is a closer and will have pace to run at with an in the money rate consistent with the field. At 15-1, he is an attractive superfecta player.
No. 5 Seau has the most starts in the field along with one other runner, and prior to his last start, which is a toss out, he had a top four placing eight of nine starts. This is a consistent runner to include at attractive odds of 10-1.
One of the two runners trained by Lynn Chleborad is No. 3 Mr. Ankery who is most likely to be on the lead. This runner should last for a share at odds of 5-1, with a record consistent with the field average.
The probable favorite trained by Robertino Diodoro is No. 1 Jack Van Berg. He is not a need to lead type, and has run some of the faster races in the field, and cannot be dismissed, although he looks like an underlay here.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 10 with 1, 3, 4 and 5. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 6
A one mile maiden event on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 11 colts and geldings including one first time starter, eight who raced last time out at Oaklawn, and two with last outs at Fairgrounds and Churchill respectively. One runner is racing off a layoff, another off the claim, and six are trying a route for the first time. The field is lightly raced and has been in the money about 40 percent of the time, with only two having tried a mile with one of those two finishing in the money. Only one runner had the lead at the second call in a total of 18 combined starts. Given the lightly raced background of these runners, forecasting the pace is very difficult. This race merits taking some chances given a lot of unpredictability.
No. 4 Plausible Denile is stretching out and projects to be as fast as anyone in the field for trainer James DiVito. He was on pace in his debut finishing second and should be a factor throughout at odds of 10-1. This is your key runner at attractive odds.
Trainer Rene Amescua has been having an excellent Oaklawn meeting with a limited number of runners, and has a very good record first time routing. No. 10 Abrierwin has one start sprinting showing little but should be given a chance here at a route after running evenly but trailing No. 4 Plausible Denile in his debut. He is worth inclusion at odds of 20-1.
No. 3 Kingmaker is training by Ron Moquett and is also stretching out after his debut where he finished third. Similar to No. 4 Plausible Denile, he projects to be as fast as anyone in the field and should be closing from mid pack at odds of 6-1.
The likely favorite trained by Brad Cox is No. 1 Maasai Warrior who is cutting back in distance from two consecutive runs at a mile and one sixteenth at Fairgrounds after his Oaklawn debut at 6 furlongs. He has tactical speed and should be on or near the lead throughout.
No. 7 General Strike is stretching out after three consecutive seven furlong efforts at Churchill dating back to his last run in November of last year. This runner should improve with distance and the nearly five month layoff. He should vie for favoritism with No. 1 Maasai Warrior.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 3, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 10
This one mile dirt allowance event for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted 11 runners with nine of those exiting dirt races at Oaklawn, one exiting a dirt event at Churchill off a layoff, and another shipping in off a turf event at Santa Anita for a California based trainer. Three runners are trying a dirt route for the first time. On a combined basis, these runners have been in the money over 50 percent of the time and nearly three of four tries at the distance. There is little speed, with runners having the lead at the second call slightly under one in ten times. I anticipate forwardly placed horses having an advantage.
No. 4 Let’s Cruise who has a pressing running style stretches out for trainer McLean Robertson. She will be facing a much softer pace than her sprint efforts and she projects to be a bit slower but competitive with the better runners in the field. At odds of 6-1, she is your key runner.
No. 5 Trouville comes out of a turf event at Santa Anita for California based trainer Leonard Powell. She has been in the money all four of her starts at this dirt distance, and looks like an overlay at 12-1.
Another runner stretching out is No. 9 A Real Jewel for trainer Greg Compton, who has a reasonably good record with a small stable. This off the claim runner has a balanced running style, and should be close throughout at odds of 15-1.
No. 1 Duplicitous has been competitive against several runners in this field and looks like a tractable runner who always hangs around. He fits the superfecta profile and has been in the money 10 of his 18 dirt tries with a grinding style that makes him a factor here at 8-1.
Steve Asmussen trains the likely favorite in No. 7 Pharoah’s Heart, who has the fastest runs in the field and has never been worse than fourth in five lifetime starts including two route runs. She makes her second start for Asmussen after being based in California running against only four runners in each of her four west coast starts.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 1, 5, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.