4 Superfecta keys Saturday at Keeneland and Aqueduct
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the favorites tend to be over bet in the pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta key is a great leveraged wager.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key vs box your selections.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of the top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
The Saturday card at Keeneland provides three opportunities on dirt and Aqueduct provides one opportunity on dirt.
At Keeneland
Race 4
This mile and one sixteenth optional claimer on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted 12 colts and geldings including two runners each trained by Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher. Eight runners exit dirt races, three last raced on synthetic and one last raced on turf. One runner is stretching out to a route, two are off extended layoffs and another has a new trainer. Entrants exit races from Turfway, Churchill, Gulfstream, Fairgrounds, Tampa Bay, Santa Anita and Delta. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 50 percent overall and slightly less at the distance and runners have had the lead at the second call about 10 percent of the time for races that show. The pace should be moderate and that should give a distinct advantage to forwardly placed runners.
No. 12 Gunfighter one of two Brad Cox entries comes out of three consecutive runs on dirt at Fairgrounds all at this distance which include a fourth against Cyberknife, last week’s winner of the Arkansas Derby. This runner looks like a grinder who should be forwardly to mid pack placed and should be there at the end given the pace scenario. At 6-1 he is your key horse.
No. 1 O P Firecracker comes out of two consecutive efforts on synthetic and returns to dirt where his prior three starts were all fourth or better finishes with one victory. He was relatively close to the pace in each of those dirt efforts at the second call and stands to improve on dirt returning to that surface for the first time since breaking his maiden at Churchill in November of last year at this distance. At 12-1 he is worth inclusion.
No. 3 American Sanctuary is making his eighth start and has raced at six different venues including a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall. He recently came back in a sprint stake at Gulfstream after a long layoff. That effort certainly helped his chances today, although he finished fourth in a small field. He looks very competitive here at odds of 8-1.
The probable betting favorite is No. 10 Iron Works, one of the two Todd Pletcher trainees who exits two solid efforts at Gulfstream earlier this year breaking his maiden in a dirt sprint and finishing third in a dirt route. I expect further improvement in his first race since early February.
No. 9 Macallan the other entry trained by Todd Pletcher showed some improvement last out at Tampa Bay extending to slightly over a mile breaking his maiden and being forwardly placed throughout. The added distance and the fact that he has only two starts under his belt provide a lot of upside for this runner.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 12 with 1, 3, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 7
The Madison Stakes (G1) at seven furlongs on the dirt for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of ten runners including two each trained by Brad Cox and Wesley Ward. Nine of the ten runners exit dirt races, with one runner last racing on synthetic. These fillies and mares exit races from Gulfstream, Delta, Aqueduct, Churchill, Santa Anita and Turfway. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 80 percent overall and at the distance. There is an abundant amount of speed with runners having the lead at the second call nearly three in 10 starts for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with the advantage to closers.
No. 4 Just One Time is one of the entries trained by Brad Cox. This filly has the fewest starts in the field and has won all her dirt starts winning five of six starts overall. This is her second start as a 4-year-old, and she has more upside potential than any runner in the field. Her last start was at Gulfstream in the Inside Information (G2) at this distance. She is your key horse at 8-1.
No. 8 Club Car does not win much but is 20 of 24 lifetime with 10 second place finishes and she has placed in all five of her seven furlong starts. She will be passing tiring horse in the stretch at odds of 15-1.
No. 5 Bell’s the One is the only true deep closer in the field who will take a lot of money and is 17 of 22 lifetime. She is going to be coming late and may not get there in time but is a big factor in the superfecta.
The runner who looks the fastest here is No. 3 Lady Rocket, the other Brad Cox trainee. She destroyed the field in her last start at a mile and while she does show high early speed, she has also demonstrated tractability coming from midpack to win in one start at this distance. I expect her to come off the pace and be a very tough stretch factor here as one of the likely betting favorites.
The likely betting favorite is No. 6 Kimari, one of the two trained by Wesley Ward, who returns to defend her title in this race where she finished just ahead of No. 5 Bell’s the One last year. This mare has demonstrated success on turf and dirt in the U.S. and Europe. She is not a need to lead type and will be coming from off the pace and is very tractable which is a huge advantage given the anticipated fast pace.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 4 with 3, 5, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 9
The Blue Grass Stakes (G1), contested at a mile and one eighth on the dirt for 3-year-olds, is another Road to the Derby point accumulation event. A full field of 12 including 11 colts and one gelding are entered including two each from the Ken McPeek, Todd Pletcher and Mark Casse barns. The field exits dirt races in all cases except one lone runner exiting a race on synthetic and that runner also has a new trainer. Runners last raced at Tampa Bay, Fairgrounds, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Golden Gate and the field has combined for an in the money rate of two in every three starts overall and half that rate at the distance. There is not much speed with the field combining for only five leads at the second call in 47 starts. I expect a moderate to fast pace, with the advantage to runners near the lead but not on the lead, and closers.
One of two Todd Pletcher trainees is No. 1 Commandperformance who is still a maiden running fourth or better in each of his four starts who has to show slight improvement to be a factor here. He has faced some tough competitors and his last start at Tampa was his first in over four months which sets him up favorably here as a close to the pace but not a need to lead runner. At odds of 12-1 he is your key horse.
No. 5 Volcanic has finished fourth or better in five outings and is adding some distance off his dirt tries as one of the two Mark Casse runners. He ran evenly in the Sam F Davis (G3) last time out and looks like a grinder who at 20-1 is well worth inclusion as a stretch factor.
No. 8 Ethereal Road is a plodder who will trail but the faster the pace the more likely he will make a big move in the stretch. He has shown an improving trend in his five start career for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and is a nice supefecta factor at 20-1.
Trainer Ken McPeek sends out the probable favorite No. 10 Smile Happy the shorter priced entry of his two starters. This runner ran a strong second to Epicenter the current leading Derby candidate when they met in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at today’s distance. This was his first start in nearly three months and he should improve today off that comeback race.
No. 4 Zandon trained by Chad Brown has three starts and three in the money finishes at three different tracks including a solid third in the Risen Star (G2) behind No. 10 Smile Happy and a solid second in the Remsen (G2) both at this distance. Chad Brown runners always have something left in the stretch and this runner is as tractable as they come with his second call positions demonstrating being close or fairly far out of it. He may vie for favoritism with No. 10 Smile Happy.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 1 with 4, 5, 8 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.
At Aqueduct
Race 11
The Bay Shore Stakes (G3) contested at seven furlongs on the dirt for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 10 colts and geldings including two trained by Todd Pletcher. All runners except one exit dirt races with that lone runner exiting a turf event. Two runners are coming in off extended layoffs. Last out tracks include Aqueduct, Belmont, Parx and Laurel. Runners have combined for an in the money rate of two of every three starts overall and 100 percent at the distance. There is a great amount of speed, with runners having the lead at the second call over one in three starts. The pace should be very fast. Mid pack runners and closers should have an advantage.
No. 10 Life Is Great has the second most outings in the field and has been in the top four each of his eight starts. He has a very balanced running style and for a sprinter, looks like he could grind to a nice finish here off a solid fourth in the Gotham (G3). At 6-1 He is your key runner.
No. 7 Outkissed is a Maryland based runner who has been running very fast sprints winning two five and one furlong dashes in three tries with a second place finish in addition to one fourth place finish at six furlongs. This runner does not need the lead and the pace at seven furlongs will be noticeably slower, which puts him in the mix given his not need to lead running style. At 30-1 he could be part of a huge superfecta.
Chad Brown sends out No. 6 Highly Respected who is making his second start after a six furlong win. His pressing style laying off a probable contentious pace makes him a strong contender here given the expected improvement he should show as the runner with the fewest starts in the field.
The lone deep closer in the field is No. 9 Wit, one of the Todd Pletcher runners. He has been in the money all four starts included placings in three Graded stakes. This is his first start since the fall of last year but he did win on debut and ran well in a prior layoff race. He is the likely post time favorite.
The other Todd Pletcher trainee is No. 5 Dean’s List who is a need to lead type who appears to be the fastest runner in the field who is turning back from a second place finish in the Gotham (G2) at a mile. He will be forwardly placed and last for a share vying for favoritism with his stablemate.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 10 with 5, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.