3 potential singles offer good value Saturday at Saratoga
Saturday's Belmont Stakes undercard at Saratoga has been billed by some as a quasi Breeders' Cup card. With five Grade 1 races, eight total stakes races and many of the top horses in the country running, that might not be an overstatement.
One major difference is the depth of the Breeders' Cup fields compared to Saturday's fields at Saratoga. The stars may very well shine bright, but wallets may stay light, with seven horses listed at 6-5 or lower on the Saturday morning line. Not all of these favorites will win, and horizontal wagers can be profitable if one is able to connect on the right overlays in the races in which the favorite is beatable.
Below I analyze three runners who are not the morning-line favorite and who are my top picks to win their races. Singling one or all of these runners opens the door to spread in other races where favorites may be vulnerable.
Race 7, True North (G3)
No. 5 Book'em Danno, (5-2). This gelding won the Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) over this track on this weekend a year ago. He has remained in strong form sprinting since then, including a solid effort in the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) against Mindframe and Nysos, who would be odds-on in this race. This drop to Grade 3 company is a much easier spot as his biggest competition comes in the form of morning-line favorite Mullikin, whom Book'em Danno just defeated at Churchill Downs. Mullikin is a formidable foe, but he seems to have peaked and has not run quite as well over a wet track, which is likely on Saturday. Book'em Danno has upside and the perfect tracking style to sit a great trip.
Race 9, Jaipur (G1)
No. 9 Ag Bullet, (7-2). This star mare has proven she can compete against the best males in the business, and people seem to have forgotten she is among the best sprinters in the country after four straight defeats. Two of those defeats came routing against Grade 1 company. She is not a router, but she is talented enough to hold her own at distances beyond her scope. Her other two defeats came when losing the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint by a neck and the Unbridled Sydney Stakes when completely eliminated in the stretch. This mare has not lost a step since winning her first four sprint tries, including the Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs when she earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form. She has a tactical edge on heavily favored Think Big and has faced better competition up to this point in her career. Look for a return to her best form in gate-to-wire fashion on Saturday.
Race 11, Woody Stephens (G1)
No. 8 Gunmetal, (8-1). I liked Colloquial and Gunmetal in this race, but with Colloquial scratched, this colt becomes the horse to beat. I was visually impressed with his last win at Keeneland and liked that he showed the ability to sit off horses, which will be key in a race with plenty of early speed. Two of his three starts have been brilliant, with the one blemish coming when he got caught up in an intense speed duel at Gulfstream Park in his second start. He seemed to have matured from that experience and has the right to continue to develop into a star for Brad Cox. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount and should be able to sit the right trip for success from an outside draw.