3 long shots are poised to make noise in 2022 Kentucky Derby
Aside from being the most exciting two minutes in sports, the Kentucky Derby also can be the most profitable 120 seconds for bettors who are able to pinpoint the correct runners to fill out a trifecta or superfecta.
A $1 trifecta of Medina Spirit (12-1), Mandaloun (26-1) and Hot Rod Charlie (5-1) paid $1,696.90 in 2021. Adding the 2-1 favorite, Essential Quality, to the $1 Superfecta resulted in a $9,456.40 payoff.
The 2020 trifecta paid a similar $1,311.80, with Mr. Big News finishing third at 46-1, but the exacta of Authentic and Tiz the Law returned only $20.50.
With a wide-open Derby on tap in 2022, similar payoffs are expected.
Prep winners Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba, Mo Donegal and White Abarrio, and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier are likely to be the top six choices in the Kentucky Derby. Though the winner is likely to come from this group, do not be surprised if at least a couple of the remaining entrants hit the board at double-digit odds. Below we take a closer look at the three most likely horses to light up the tote board.
1. Charge It: This well-bred son of Tapit is the horse I want coming out of the Florida Derby (G1). He was asked to step into Grade 1 competition in start No. 3 off of a maiden win and could have won if he did not race greenly throughout. The Todd Pletcher trainee did not get away very well, took dirt on the inside and lugged in the stretch. At multiple points in the race, it looked like the young colt would throw in the towel. But he just kept grinding away like a horse who would relish the extra distance in the Derby. His upside is as big as any 3-year-old, and the horse and his connections learned plenty in the Florida Derby that will be beneficial on the first Saturday in May.
2. Zozos: This Brad Cox trainee continues the theme of high-upside runners who are underappreciated. Despite his inexperience, he showed sharp speed in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and dug in before being run down by Epicenter. Epicenter might very well win this race, and if Zozos can stay within three lengths of him once again, he likely will hit the board. Pioneer Of Medina, who finished two lengths behind Zozos at Fair Grounds, previously was only a neck behind subsequent Blue Grass (G1) winner Zandon. It is rare to get more than 20-1 on a Brad Cox runner, but as Mandaloun showed last year, it is a good idea to trust the Eclipse Award-winning trainer.
3. Crown Pride: I typically stay away from international runners in the Kentucky Derby, but Japan has had an impressive stretch of success in the biggest races around the world over the past year and this runner has some intriguing qualities. If you toss his muddy track effort, his form is spotless, with three easy wins in as many starts. He was finishing with plenty of gusto in the UAE Derby (G2) and he showed that the Derby distance should be no problem. Don't be surprised if this import outruns his odds.