Breeders' Cup: 3 vulnerable favorites to bet against
There is nothing more exciting for a racing fan than watching a superstar such as Flightline or American Pharoah exert dominance on the world stage in the Breeders' Cup.
As a gambler, however, the Breeders' Cup is more about the fantastic opportunities to make large profits when you are able to pinpoint and defeat vulnerable favorites.
The 2023 Breeders' Cup might have a bit less star power than in recent years, but the lack of a standout in many races should pave the way for great wagering chances.
Below are three of the favorites I will bet against during this year's Breeders' Cup.
Cody's Wish, Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
The defending champion is the model of consistency and catches the smallest field of any Breeders' Cup race. He might end up being the shortest price of any favorite on Saturday for those reasons, but there are a couple of red flags to consider.
Keep in mind that he is 9-for-11 lifetime around one turn but only 1-for-4 around two turns. That win in last year's Dirt Mile was an important one, but he had a wicked pace to close into that day when barely getting up. He will not have that luxury on Saturday in a race without much pace. It is also possible that his gigantic effort in the Grade 1 Met Mile might have taken some starch out of him. His form since the Met Mile is subpar to his form coming into this race last year. Without much depth in this field, he could overcome these obstacles. But there are too many questions to feel comfortable taking short odds.
She Feels Pretty, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
This filly has not done anything wrong in two lifetime starts, but I do not think she warrants favoritism after a pair of wins at Ellis Park and Woodbine. She received a nice setup in the Natalma (G1) last time and, while impressive, she did not wow me like fellow entrant Buchu did when I watched her replays.
In addition to Buchu, there are classy Europeans, including Carla's Way, Porta Fortuna and Content, all of whom have legitimate chances. The 4-1 morning-line odds are good for a favorite, but it is still too low for an inexperienced runner in this deep of a field.
Live In The Dream, Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
The concept of playing a speed horse who is shortening up after setting a wicked pace and tiring late last out makes sense, but this runner has serious questions to answer. The Woodford (G2) was not the strongest of prep races and though he finished fourth, he was three heads away from being seventh.
His win in the Nunthorpe (G1) was solid, but it was his first career stakes win and it did come at 28-1. It is fair to question whether that was a bit of a fluke. And although the fractions will not be any faster than he set last time, he will face more company on the front end from Nobals and Caravel. He could tire late and lose this race by only a length, but a length in this type of race can be the difference between first and fifth.