Kentucky Derby prep: Louisiana Derby odds and analysis
Saturday’s Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the final race of four on the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby 2025. The 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby is part of the seven qualifying races that offer 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top five eligible finishers.
A field of 10 was drawn, and six of the 3-year-olds earned Derby points thus far with individual totals ranging from 10 to 35. John Hancock won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs last month. Built registered a Derby trail victory as a 2-year-old in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds.
Here is a full-field analysis for the Louisiana Derby with the official track morning-line odds. The race is scheduled as race 12 of 12, with post time set for 6:42 p.m. EDT.
1. John Hancock, 7-5. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 2: 2-0-0 - $138,560. John Hancock is undefeated in two career starts using front-end efforts at Tampa Downs to move from a maiden special weight to the Sam F. Davis, where he earned 20 Derby points. He was scratched from last weekend’s Virginia Derby. Win contender.
2. Chunk of Gold, 8-1. Preservationist – Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry – 3: 1-2-0 - $148,818. Chunk of Gold began his career with two races on the Tapeta at Turfway Park, where his trainer Ethan West is based. The bargain $2,500 yearling purchase won a sale-price-restricted maiden in his debut and then used a late rally to finish second in the Leonatus going a mile. He moved onto the dirt and was second in the Risen Star (G2) after a troubled trip to get 25 Derby points. Live long shot.
3. Tiztastic, 8-1. Tiz the Law – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 7: 2-1-2 - $949,800. Tiztastic is the leading money winner in the field with nearly $1 million from his five stakes appearances, of which four are on the Derby trail. He broke his maiden and then won the lucrative Juvenile Mile at Kentucky Downs. Trainer Steve Asmussen moved him onto the road to the Derby where he made four starts with a second, a pair of thirds and most recently a fifth in the Rebel (G2). Tiztastic earned 19 Derby points from those top five finishes. Use underneath.
4. Yinzer, 12-1. Twirling Candy – Steve Asmussen / Ben Curtis – 4: 1-0-1 - $48,540. Yinzer is the second Asmussen runner in the field. He sold for $1 million as a Saratoga yearling and was third in his debut at Churchill. He broke his maiden in his fourth try showing early speed in what was his third start at Fair Grounds. Toss.
5. Caldera, 5-1. Liam’s Map – D. Wayne Lukas / Tyler Gaffalione – 4: 1-2-0 - $174,616. Caldera could join Virginia Derby winner American Promise and give Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas a second Kentucky Derby qualifier. Caldera broke his maiden in his third start at Oaklawn by more than five lengths while racing on the lead. He had the lead and was second by a nose in the Sunland Derby and got 10 Derby points. Win contender.
6. Built, 9-2. Hard Spun – Wayne Catalano / Jose Ortiz – 5: 2-1-2 - $224,204. Built leads this field with 35 Derby points, which already could be enough points to get into the field for the run for the roses. He got his first win at the Keeneland fall meeting while racing on the lead. Built moved onto the Derby trail where he won the Gun Runner, was second in the Lecomte (G3) and third in the Risen Star. Blinkers go on. Win contender.
7. Vassimo, 12-1. Nyquist – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 3: 1-0-0 - $39,500. Vassimo crossed the finish line first in his debut at Gulfstream Park in December but was disqualified from the purse money because of a medication violation. With Lasix he won an allowance at Tampa and then was fourth in the Risen Star, which got him 10 Derby points. Blinkers go on. A rare Pletcher long shot.
8. Furio, 12-1. McKinzie – Joe Sharp / Luis Saez – 3: 1-1-1 - $57,400. Furio had the early lead in all three of his races. He went the distance to win his second start after moving to Fair Grounds. The son of McKinzie was second in an allowance going two turns last month. Toss.
9. Instant Replay, 6-1. Maximum Security – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 5: 2-1-0 - $96,358. Instant Replay is the second Brad Cox runner in the field. He was a maiden winner in a $100,000 claimer in his third start, which was at Churchill. The son of Maximum Security was fourth in an Oaklawn allowance and then rallied from last to win an allowance at Fair Grounds in a small field with first-time Lasix. Use underneath.
10. Hypnus, 12-1. Into Mischief – Ken McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 2: 1-0-0 - $67,250. Hypnus won his first start on a sloppy and sealed track at Fair Grounds, where he used a late rally to win by more than two lengths. He was seventh when he tried the Derby trail in the Rebel. Toss.
Summary: John Hancock is the horse to beat in the Louisiana Derby with his perfect record and a prior victory on the Kentucky Derby trail. But he is listed as the 7-5 favorite in the morning line. The pace projector says there will be a fast pace and that John Hancock might take some pressure on the lead. Regardless, he will have to carry his speed down the long Fair Grounds stretch while going an added furlong.
Chunk of Gold was second in the Risen Star behind Magnitude’s loose-on-the-lead victory. He did beat Built, Vassimo, American Promise, Render Judgment and East Avenue in that large field, but he had a rough start and then had to check heading into the stretch. The 8-1 morning line seems a bit generous but makes him even more attractive. Chunk of Gold is the top choice.