Kentucky Derby 2025 prep: Odds & analysis for Jeff Ruby

Poster won the Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct in December, and California Burrito was victorious in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway last month. They headline Saturday’s Grade 3, $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks, an automatic qualifier that sends the winner to Kentucky Derby 2025.

The 1 1/8-mile Jeff Ruby is one of the seven qualifying races that offer 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers.

An overflow field of 13 was drawn, and eight of the 3-year-olds already ran on the Derby trail. Together they earned 65 Derby points with individual totals ranging from zero to 20.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Jeff Ruby Steaks with odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race as the 12th of 13 at Turfway with a post time of 6:25 p.m. EDT.

1. Calling Card, 20-1. Complexity – Mike Maker / Adam Beschizza – 6: 1-1-1 - $77,600. Calling Card began his career racing on the turf against New York-breds, but he broke his maiden in his third start by more than 17 lengths at Aqueduct going a mile on the main track. He was third in an Oaklawn allowance to end 2024. Calling Card moved onto the Derby trail and finished eighth in the Lecomte (G3) and seventh in the Gotham (G3) and yielded 0 Derby points. Toss.

2. Charlie’s To Blame, 6-1. Blame – Peter Eurton / Juan Hernandez – 4: 2-1-0 - $138,840. Charlie’s to Blame was fourth in his debut at Del Mar and then moved to the turf for his next three races. He was second in a turf sprint at Santa Anita and then got his maiden win going a mile at Del Mar with a front-end trip. Last month, the son of Blame won the Kitten’s Joy at Gulfstream Park by a head going 1 1/16 miles. Win contender.

3. California Burrito, 9-2. Army Mule – Tommy Drury / Irving Moncada – 6: 3-1-0 - $222,941. California Burrito broke his maiden in his second start in a $150,000 claimer at Churchill Downs on a sloppy and sealed track. After a second in a mile allowance, he moved to Turfway’s Tapeta track for his next three starts. He was fourth in an allowance as the favorite in December, but then he won his next two races. California Burrito led an allowance every step of the way in January going a mile. He won the Battaglia Memorial on the Derby trail last month with a determined front-end effort and got 20 Derby points. Win contender.

4. Final Gambit, 10-1. Not This Time – Brad Cox / Luan Machado – 3: 1-1-1 - $74,239. Final Gambit debuted on the turf at Churchill in November and finished third after a late rally. He moved to Turfway, where he pressed the pace in a large field and was second. In February he rallied from far back in a field of 11 to win by more than two lengths as a 6-5 favorite. He should appreciate the added distance in the Ruby. Live late runner.

5. Flying Mohawk, 10-1. Karakontie – Whit Beckman / Joseph Ramos – 5: 2-1-0 - $147,000. Flying Mohawk made five starts on the turf in his career. He needed four tries at four tracks to break his maiden, which happened at Churchill by more than five lengths going two turns. He won an allowance in January at Fair Grounds by two lengths. Moves from turf to Tapeta.

6. Baby Max, 5-1. Maximum Mischief – Kelsey Danner / Abel Castillo – 5: 2-2-0 - $180,651. Baby Max finished first or second in his last four starts. He got a maiden victory at Churchill in November when he rallied from last going two turns. Baby Max then ran three times at Turfway, starting with an allowance where he missed by a head with another late move. He stayed closer to the pace and won the Leonatus going a mile. Baby Max was sent off as the favorite in the Battaglia, where he pressed the pace, was a close second and earned 10 Derby points. Blinkers go on. Top choice.

7. Giocoso, 20-1. Not This Time – Keith Desormeaux / Jaime Torres – 7: 2-1-1 - $164,381. Giocoso broke his maiden in his third start at Ellis Park on the turf in a field of 12 by more than six lengths after pressing the pace. He ran in the first race on the Derby trail in September, finished third and earned 3 Derby points. The son of Not This Time won a grass allowance at Churchill to end his 2-year-old campaign. His one start this year was a distant 12th-place finish in the Risen Star (G2). Toss.

8. Innovator, 15-1. Authentic – D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez – 9: 1-4-1 - $228,805. Innovator got his maiden victory in his seventh start at Oaklawn on a muddy and sealed track going six furlongs. He had four second-place finishes before that, including in the Advent at Oaklawn. In 2025 Innovator moved onto the Derby trail and finished third in the Lecomte (G3) after setting the pace and picked up 6 Derby points. He was 12th in the Rebel (G2) last month. Toss.

9. Poster, 5-2. Munnings – Eoin Harty / John Velazquez – 4: 3-0-1 - $261,628. Poster won his first three starts, beginning with two turf races. He won a maiden at Ellis Park in August going a mile and then an allowance at the Keeneland fall meeting. He won the Remsen (G2) on the Derby trail and then in February rallied from last to get third in the Sam F. Davis and earned 16 Derby points. Win contender.

10. Maximum Promise, 15-1. Maximum Security – Ken McPeek / Frankie Dettori – 4: 1-0-1 - $66,891. Maximum Promise began his career early with a start on the grass at Ellis, where he broke slowly and moved up to fifth in a field of 12. He romped on the lead going a mile on the dirt by more than 14 lengths. Maximum Promise moved onto the Derby trail in 2025 after a five-month layoff and was fifth in the Lecomte and third in the Battaglia, which got him 8 Derby points. Use underneath.

11. Curvino, 20-1. Vino Rosso – Peter Miller / Gerardo Corrales – 9: 1-2-4 - $113,880. Curvino began his career in California with three starts on the dirt and three on the grass. He had four top-three finishes in that sequence. The son of Vino Rosso spent the winter at Oaklawn, where he got his first victory in a $100,000 maiden claimer. Since then, he added a second and a third in big-money allowances. Toss.

12. He’s Not Joking, 20-1. Practical Joke – Josie Carroll / Rafael Hernandez – 6: 2-1-1 - $121,241. He’s Not Joking made his first four starts on the Tapeta at Woodbine. He broke his maiden in his second race in September going seven furlongs. The son of Practical Joke was third in the Display and then stretched out to win the Grey (G3). He’s Not Joking ran on the Derby trail twice, finishing eighth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and fifth in the Holy Bull (G3). That earned him 2 Derby points. Stakes winner on Tapeta.

13. Candytown. Speightstown – Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez – 2: M-2-0 - $21,400. Also eligible.

Summary: The Jeff Ruby has a large field, but only five horses have ever run on a Tapeta track. Then there are six horses who have had success on the grass and will try Tapeta for the first time. Two of the first-time Tapeta runners have trained on the Turfway Park main track.

California Burrito, Baby Max and Maximum Promise, the top three finishers from the Battaglia Memorial, are back in this field. But Poster is listed as the morning-line favorite.

A fast pace is projected in the Jeff Ruby since there are a three speed horses with recent front-end victories, including the Battaglia winner California Burrito. Poster has several recent workouts at Turfway Park, and thus deserves serious consideration. Baby Max gets blinkers on and has a chance to sit a stalking trip again and get first run on the early speed. Baby Max is the top choice at 5-1 on the morning line.